Bowl Musings part III

After the FIU debacle, La Tech came through with a cover in a game they easily could have won. I won't be greedy though, a cover is a cover. That brings us to 1-1 on the numbered musings. Tomorrow there's no official play on Boise, but as I mentioned, I lean that way. That reminds me, will we ever see a Boise bowl game again where they aren't a double digit favorite? the one thing that stinks about all these conference tie ins with the bowls is that if a team like Boise doesn't make the BCS, they don't get a shot against anydecent team because it's the BCS or bust for them. If they don't strike it rich with a BCS bowl, they fall about 25 spots down the totem pole because the Mountain West tie ins stink. It won't get much better in the Big East either, as high finishers in the Big East this year have NC State, Iowa St and Vandy as bowl game matchups. It'd be nice if the Cotton Bowl, or one of the Florida New Year's Day Bowls could invite them. Ah, whatever.

3. North Carolina +5 v Missouri: In my opinion, this game is a complete tossup. Both teams stength of schedule according to most measures was almost identical. They both went 7-5. Statistically in this one, the teams also look even, although Missouri looks to be in a bit of trouble against UNC's passing attack. Missouri is ranked 74th in passer rating defense(although the Big 12 is a good passing league) and had a 20-8 ratio against. UNC QB Brynn Renner struggles against pressure, but Mizzou didn't make many plays in pass defense with only 8 INTs, and they were in the middle of the pack in sacks. On the flip side, Mizzou is a running team, but they will be without their stud running back Henry Josey. Also, UNC was stout against the run, ranked 16th. At the end of the day, I think this is a coin flip, with perhaps even an edge to UNC, so I'll take the 5 points in this one.

4. Western Michigan +2.5 v Purdue. The more I look at this game, the more I think WMU is the better team. There is some danger here in that WMU is among the worst rush defenses in the league and Purdue can run it a little, but overall, I think WMU is going to present even worse of a matchup for the Boilers. They are probably the best passing team Purdue will have played this year, and when Purdue played a team that could throw it(ND, even Michigan and Wisconsin) they got torched. They also played like crap in pretty much every game away from West Lafayette, and WMU hung with Michigan, Illinois(when they were good) and beat UCONN on the road. WMU is much better in the special teams than Purdue, and there is a very big coaching edge with Bill Cubit lapping Danny Hope in the brainpower department. Throw in the fact that WMU is going to be jacked to play any Big Ten team, and I think this shapes up as a nice spot. Although Purdue might not be as likely to fall victim to the "not interested" situation with a bowl game in Detroit because it's been awhile since the went bowling, it's still a bowl game in Detroit against a MAC team. Combine that with the fact they have a buffoon for a coacg, and you can see why I think WMU won;t get their best shot.

5. Louisville +2 v NC State: Do I trust Mike Glennon and this gutless offense against any defense with a pulse? Certainly not. That's pretty much the gist of this play. I think Louisville will have their way with the Wolfpack offense, and Louisville own offense has been very capable in recent weeks. This game is in NC State's backyard, but they are a sad sack team who vomits on itself in any big spot. This probably can't be constututed as a big spot, but it's a Nat TV game nonetheless. Here's another case where I think the wrong team is favored.

That's it for now. Others to come in the coming days...