Somehow, the beginning of college football has managed to sneak up on us. It normally never sneaks up on me, but this year, too much annoying bullshit has occurred during my perparation phase, and I've caught myself scrambling. To be honest, there aren't as many games out there this year that set their nuts on a tee and ask you to hack away like in years past.
Quickly, has anyone seen the pictures of ND punching bag Jimmy Claussen this off-season. It's actually disturbing. He got into some trouble for competing in something called the "beer Olympics" which raised some eyebrows since he is still underage. I mean, who could ever predict that the starting QB at ND would be able to get his hands on some beer? The kid has already done several things that paint him as a douche bag...calling a press conference at the CFB Hall of Fame to announce his college choice being one of them...but this kid has grown out his hair, and maybe he went tanning or something, but he looks positively ghoulish. Kind of like 40 year old woman who just transgendered herself to live as a man. Google him for some recent pictures, and I guarantee you will not approve. I'm not a big ND honk, as you ma have guessed, but the ND quarterback should definitely NOT look like THAT!
As I mentioned, last year was an astoundingly great start to the season, as the numbered musings took home the cash on all but one offering. (I can't remember the total, and I'm much too lazy to check.)Of course, it was followed by a few weeks of mediocrity, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Games begin Thursday night(tomorrow, or today depending on when you opened your email. Here we go.
1. Thursday Oregon St -3 @ Stanford: The task here is to try and figure out how much better Stanford is compared to last year. Our old pal Jim Harbaugh certainly did a credible job in his first season, most memorably knocking off USC in what remains the most astonishing win of the last several years in CFB. A lot of people actually would tab the Cards season last year as a success due solely to that game, and they might be right. However, I view progress when the team goes from being absolutely non-competitive to competitive in a sense that they can hang on the field with most teams without merely catching breaks, which they undoubtedly did against USC last year. They were outgained in conference by a whopping 175yards per game, worst of all BCS conference teams this side of Syracuse. Stanford is a possible play in spots where they are a double digit dog...where teams are not taking them seriously. This is the scenario in which they have won their games. Catching only 3 is really asking a lot of a team that was woefully outgained in almost every case last year, including the last time they were a 3 point home dog..v Washington. The Huskies rolled up 388 rushing yards outgaining the Cardinal 539-253. Remember, this is Washington we're talking about. Now they face Oregon St, who has been a generally solid team with a generally solid coach. They return the best players from their OL, and have a hotshot recruit at RB(name warning: Jacquizz Rogers.That will be my third son's name if we're so blessed) to replace Yvenson Bernard. They also return Sammie Stroughter at WR, who was banged up last year but has been a fantastic playmaker in the past. O D, hey have to replace their front seven, but Stanford's offense is not powerful enough to expose that. Their only chance is to be very effective in the passing game, and OSU has one of the best secondaries in the country returning. ( Stud FS Al Afalava is suspended, though>) IN short, I just think that it will be asking too much of The Dog to win this one outright. Oregon St is too solid. Their Samoans will be properly lathered for this one. It might take awhile, but I think Oregon St keeps the Cardinal at arm's length.
That's it for Thursday. I'm still looking at Friday, and I'll have Saturday's card before Friday. As for the rest of Thursday's card, Rice looks like a possibility, but it's foolish right now to even try to figure out what June Jones will do with that SMU squad. The NC State/ South Carolina game has reached 14 which might be a bit of a value for the Pack, but I can't get a handle on that one. I won't lay that much, and NC State just got hit with a couple injuries, so I could see them laying an egg. No real read on the other games.. As I mentioned...more later.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Pre-season Musings 2008.
Very sorry for the late update to the blog. I wasn't sure if I wanted to keep it going, but figured since I'm doing the musings, they might as well be on here. I will be cutting and pasting the first four weeks, as well as the preseason musings.
Well, another year approaches. I must say that this year has been one of the least painful waits for CFB because this Cubs team has been so interesting, and such a pleasure to watch. In previous years, I'd be so sick of the Dust Bag and his absolute ass-backward ideas on the most basic tenets of baseball, that I'd be scrambling for other outlets to pay attention to. This would lead to a vastly premature dive into all things college football. I'd generally have just about everything broken down by July 1st, then sit there and pound my pud for 45 days until it was prudent to start talking about the upcoming season, This year, the Cubs have kept me occupied.
Well, enough of that bullshit, college football is almost here. Time to pay attention to what matters. Football season, of course marks the opening of the true betting season, and I am looking forward to that, partly because I have found what an absolute gold mine fading myself can be(in all cases other than CFB sides). I look forward to fully taking advantage of my own squareness, especially when college hoops season gets started.
So here are the pre-season musings. As I've mentioned in the past, don't be surprised if teams I mention here end up being teams I play on in the coming weeks. I typically mention the teams I either like, or don't like, relative to the expectations that we might see or read in preseason chatter among the talking heads. Here are some observations:
-Georgia is ranked #1 in the country, but they'll probably fail to finish 1st in their own division in the SEC. Seriously, does Mark Richt have dirty pictures of the entire collective CFB media? The media has been on this team's jock consistently since about November 1st of last year. Nothing was more annoying than the mindless "Georgia is the hottest team and deserves to be in the MNC game" chatter we were beaten over the skull with as the BCS screeching got appreciably louder. Yes, they have some people back. Their defense looks very good. However, I am not sold on Matt Stafford, they just lost their All SEC LT to a season ending knee injury, and they have a schedule that I wouldn't wish on Lloyd Carr. Keep in mind that Florida has just about all of their playmakers back and are certainly looking for revenge after Urban Meyer got all offended when Georgia went ghetto on the Gators after that TD in Jacksonville. As long as Percy Harvin is healthy, their offense will be a scoring machine. Florida plays SEC road games at Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee, while Georgia has South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Kentucky as well as the Florida game at a neutral site. Tell me you wouldn't bet on Florida having a tad easier time in conference.
-Unfortunately, with the untimely firing of Bill Doba at Washington St, we have to find a new village idiot in the college football coaching ranks. Of course, there exists a myriad of candidates, as I would estimate that more than 50% of these meatheads would be unable to function in the Non-football real world. Mike Stoops at Arizona, Phil Fullmer at UT and of course Les Miles at LSU are fun choices. Tim Brewster at Minnesota established himself as a contender with his rah-rah "we will do things the right way" and "our young men will compete" drivel. But the runaway winner has to be Bill Stewart, the new HC at West Virginia. It's true that WV stomped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in his only game as HC, but let's take a look here. Dick Rod's OC was still there calling the plays, so he didn't have to do much in that regard. He never donned the headset at any time during the game, and spent the entire game searching diligently for people to hug. His previous head coaching experience is limited to a 8-25 record in Division II. Nevertheless, WV gave him the job. With no leftover assistants from the Dick Rod era, it should be interesting. If I'm a 'Eers fan(and thank God I'm not, because that would make me a couch burning hillbilly), I am absolutely a regular at "Fire Bill Stewart.com." South Florida is going to win that league.
Ok here are some teams I like. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you that teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Ohio St, etc are going to be good. So I won't. They're going to be good though. Maybe Missouri I do. They'll be good....see last year for evidence on that. Moving on:
1. South Florida: Surprise! Matt Grothe is a "steely resolve" type ,the RB and most of their WRs return, as do 4/5 of their offensive linemen and most of their defensive playmakers. They still have a bitter taste in their mouths after getting teabagged by a perceived chump team(Dennis Dixon-less Oregon) in their bowl game, so there's a major shoulder chip, and their coach, though showing occasional signs of meatheadedness, is never overmatched. They are also getting used to the hype that they were new to last year. Jan 1 looks to be in their future.
2. Texas Tech: What's not to like? 2 Heisman candidates in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, tons of receivers back, all 5 linemen back , and easily the best D that Leach has had there. If Mike Leach can figure out a way to first wake himself up, then devise some kind of plan to help them compete in Norman on November 22, they've got a great chance at an 11 win year, and maybe more.
3. Cincinnati: Another Big East team, and one nobody is talking about, but I like this team. There are some question marks at Qb, because Ben Mauk, their guy from last year was denied a 12th year of eligibility by the NCAA. However, the guy that played before Mauk transferred there, Dustin Grutza is no slouch, having started 24 times since his Freshman year. Their defense also looks to be very strong, as they return 43 combined sacks and INTs from a good D last year. I'm also very fond of their coach, Brian Kelly..Cincy is a dark horse in the Big East.
4. Indiana: Don't laugh. Ok laugh. They actually made a mistake in hiring Bill Lynch on full time, but for the short term, it might work out. This could be one of those predictions that I look back on and cringe, but hear me out. They backed into a bowl game last year, but were fairly legit, and they've got a good shot to do the same thing again, with an outside shot of reaching one of the upper tier B10 bowls due to their schedule. They miss Ohio St and Michigan(no great travesty this year)in the B10 schedule, and their NC schedule is predictably cupcake city. I actually think they made an attempt to be even more cowardly than their schedule makes them appear, since I'm sure if they could trade in Ball St and Central Michigan for a couple other MAC teams, they'd do it immediately. Their last 2 games are on the road with Purdue and Penn St, but prior to that, 8 of their first 10 are at home, and one of the road games is against Minnesota, a winnable game if there ever was one. Their home games are with Western Ky, the Racers of Murray St, aforementioned MACsters CMU and Testicle Tech, Michigan St, Iowa and Northwestern.MSU, NW and Iowa will be fighting for the same lot in life that the Hoosiers will....home field will be big in those games. They then get the Badgers at home, followed by the final two. They have a great shot to be 9-1 (the other road game is at Illinois) when they tee it up with Wisconsin, and anything less than 8-2 would have to include at least one loss as a significant favorite. As far as the team goes, Kellen Lewis should be back from his indiscretions in the offseason, and he is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He ran for 1,000 yards and threw for 3k more with a 28-10 ratio. On defense, this will be their best squad in many years, with a lot of their playmakers returning. Most of the publications I've seen has IU coming in last in the Big Ten. I just don't think that can possibly happen. Not to belabor this point, but this looks like a pretty interesting situation. They will almost certainly be ranked into October.
5. The MAC West: There are some very good teams in this division, two of whom I mentioned already, CMU and Nad St. Cmu has one of the best players not playing in a BCS league, Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour. They also have every conceivable player back who did anything on their team last year, and they should have beaten Purdue in the bowl game. They always play a tough schedule, and they got pounded at times last year in the NC, but they will probably be more of a tough out this year when they play Georgia, Purdue and Indiana. Ball St has another good QB in Nate Davis, and a bunch of good skill guys in the passing game. Western Michigan also looks good. This might be a year that some Big Ten teams slip up against the MAC like in years past.
6. FAU: Teams looking for feeble homecoming opponents used to come calling to Florida Atlantic with check in hand, and FAU has been a willing speedbag while they've tried to build up their program, but the Owls have now graduated to a second level of sorts. The Sun Belt has been a goofy league, where upsets routinely happen because every team in the league was bad enough to get beat as a DD favorite.That is unlikely to happen this year because FAU is so far ahead of everyone else in the league now that Haugabook from Troy and his jackrabbit but rockheaded buddies have all "graduated". This was a prolific offense last year. QB Rusty Smith (great name) is another underrated QB (32/9 ratio) who led the team to 7 30+ performances, and they have everyone back. This is probably the easiest conference race to handicap in the country, even easier than the PAC 10. Not that anyone cares about the Sun Belt, but there you go.
Teams I don't like:
1. Mich Shit gan: So now they have Dick Rod. Ok, great. Explain to me, Mr Dick Rod, who is going to score your touchdowns this year? Mike Hart? Gone. Manningham? Gone. Arrington? Gone. Henne? Sucked anyway, but gone. Also, you have no quarterbacks who don't look like Lerch from the Addams Family, and your non-freshman running backs are either ineligible, on crack, or fat. Not a good fit for the run n choke(see Pitt last year) offense you run. Throw in the fact that there is only 1 returning starter on the line, and you've got some issues my friend. Actually, the guys projected to start on the OL haven't even seen much action, not even in mop up duty. Defensively, they have some guys back, but it's not like they set the world ablaze on that side of the ball last year. Frankly, they remind of Notre Dame coming into last year. They can't possibly be that bad, though. Here's hoping they are! Cheers!
2. Notre Dame: Holy shit, where do I start with this pack of non-talents.The common refrain among the talking heads is that Notre Dame will bounce back this year. I guess that's because they are Notre Dame, and they have Coach Front-Butt and his brilliant, savvy, I'm smarter than you are schemes. Do we have to remind people how bad this team was last year? In week 7, they were dead last in the NCAA in total offense by almost 100 yards per game. 4 times(4 TIMES!!!) they were held under 20 yards in a first half and failed to gain 200 yards in a game 7 times. 3 times they were held under 100 yards for an entire game. Keep in mind that when they teed it up last year, Charlie had 2 1/2 recruiting classes under his considerable belt. Did he recruit a bunch of twerps? I think not. So what does that say? He either recruited players with talent enough to be easily the worst offense in D-1, or his schemes were sorely lacking. Taking a look at his roster, it's pretty much the same guys who sucked ass last year, so where is the improvement coming from? Mr Wonderful is going to have to prove it to us. By the way, is there a more disturbing looking college football player than Jimmy Claussen. With his long hair, he looks like a newly transgendered male. He is not difficult to dislike. It's too bad, because now that I cover South Bend, and have some dealer acquaintances with close ties to the program I wouldn't mind not despising this team. Oh well.
3. Miami(FL): The free fall enabled by Skeletor Coker has been only enhanced by the overmatched Randy Shannon. When is this administration going to figure out that they can only be relevant if they get a bunch of coked up street thugs? For the third year in a row, their offense stunk, and now they have to break in another QB, probably a freshman. Defensively, they should be pretty good, but they won't score many points. They also don't have any home field advantage anymore, since they moved to whatever they call the Dolphins home stadium these days. They'll probably draw about 20k per game.
4. Louisville: How the mighty have fallen. This team used to assault whatever team had the misfortune of playing them at home. Now they are but a shell of themselves, having lost at home to Syracuse of all people, the undisputed king of the BCS weaklings. They lost just about every link to their dominant recent past this past year. All new receivers, only the fullback returns in the backfield, and the QB is new, although Hunter Cantwell has played some in the past. Defensively, they were atrocious, so they'll have to outscore people with all new skill players, unless of course they morph into a sturdy defense overnight.
others: Mostly the usual suspects...Akron will be bad, Army, Tulane, Syracuse(really bad). I think Sly Croom will return to his rightful place in the SEC JV, they'll probably get lapped by Nutt at Ole Miss, and eventually Petrino at Arkansas. Not a fan of Texas this year, and won't until they learn to play some pass D. Colt Mc Coy lost a lot of his buddies on offense too. I assume they'll reload, but whispers are that Mack Brown missed a bit on the last couple recruiting classes.
Some trends: All ATS
Under Miles, LSU is 11-2 in nonconference ATS, 6-17-3 in conference.
Saban was 1-6 as a favorite last year at Bama.
Northwestern is 0-5 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
Missouri is 10-2 in the NC the last 3 years, Illinois is 1-6 NC in the last 2. Hmmmmmmm.
Urban Meyer is 2-9 as a road favorite at Florida.
Oregon is 12-3 as a home favorite the last 3 years.
Arizona is 1-6 as a HF under Mike Stoops.
Wyoming is 5-18 in conference over the past 3 years.
There are some others, but there are the extremes. Well, that's it for the preseason. Let's get this thing rolling. Week one musings will be coming shortly. Keep it real.
Well, another year approaches. I must say that this year has been one of the least painful waits for CFB because this Cubs team has been so interesting, and such a pleasure to watch. In previous years, I'd be so sick of the Dust Bag and his absolute ass-backward ideas on the most basic tenets of baseball, that I'd be scrambling for other outlets to pay attention to. This would lead to a vastly premature dive into all things college football. I'd generally have just about everything broken down by July 1st, then sit there and pound my pud for 45 days until it was prudent to start talking about the upcoming season, This year, the Cubs have kept me occupied.
Well, enough of that bullshit, college football is almost here. Time to pay attention to what matters. Football season, of course marks the opening of the true betting season, and I am looking forward to that, partly because I have found what an absolute gold mine fading myself can be(in all cases other than CFB sides). I look forward to fully taking advantage of my own squareness, especially when college hoops season gets started.
So here are the pre-season musings. As I've mentioned in the past, don't be surprised if teams I mention here end up being teams I play on in the coming weeks. I typically mention the teams I either like, or don't like, relative to the expectations that we might see or read in preseason chatter among the talking heads. Here are some observations:
-Georgia is ranked #1 in the country, but they'll probably fail to finish 1st in their own division in the SEC. Seriously, does Mark Richt have dirty pictures of the entire collective CFB media? The media has been on this team's jock consistently since about November 1st of last year. Nothing was more annoying than the mindless "Georgia is the hottest team and deserves to be in the MNC game" chatter we were beaten over the skull with as the BCS screeching got appreciably louder. Yes, they have some people back. Their defense looks very good. However, I am not sold on Matt Stafford, they just lost their All SEC LT to a season ending knee injury, and they have a schedule that I wouldn't wish on Lloyd Carr. Keep in mind that Florida has just about all of their playmakers back and are certainly looking for revenge after Urban Meyer got all offended when Georgia went ghetto on the Gators after that TD in Jacksonville. As long as Percy Harvin is healthy, their offense will be a scoring machine. Florida plays SEC road games at Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee, while Georgia has South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Kentucky as well as the Florida game at a neutral site. Tell me you wouldn't bet on Florida having a tad easier time in conference.
-Unfortunately, with the untimely firing of Bill Doba at Washington St, we have to find a new village idiot in the college football coaching ranks. Of course, there exists a myriad of candidates, as I would estimate that more than 50% of these meatheads would be unable to function in the Non-football real world. Mike Stoops at Arizona, Phil Fullmer at UT and of course Les Miles at LSU are fun choices. Tim Brewster at Minnesota established himself as a contender with his rah-rah "we will do things the right way" and "our young men will compete" drivel. But the runaway winner has to be Bill Stewart, the new HC at West Virginia. It's true that WV stomped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in his only game as HC, but let's take a look here. Dick Rod's OC was still there calling the plays, so he didn't have to do much in that regard. He never donned the headset at any time during the game, and spent the entire game searching diligently for people to hug. His previous head coaching experience is limited to a 8-25 record in Division II. Nevertheless, WV gave him the job. With no leftover assistants from the Dick Rod era, it should be interesting. If I'm a 'Eers fan(and thank God I'm not, because that would make me a couch burning hillbilly), I am absolutely a regular at "Fire Bill Stewart.com." South Florida is going to win that league.
Ok here are some teams I like. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you that teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Ohio St, etc are going to be good. So I won't. They're going to be good though. Maybe Missouri I do. They'll be good....see last year for evidence on that. Moving on:
1. South Florida: Surprise! Matt Grothe is a "steely resolve" type ,the RB and most of their WRs return, as do 4/5 of their offensive linemen and most of their defensive playmakers. They still have a bitter taste in their mouths after getting teabagged by a perceived chump team(Dennis Dixon-less Oregon) in their bowl game, so there's a major shoulder chip, and their coach, though showing occasional signs of meatheadedness, is never overmatched. They are also getting used to the hype that they were new to last year. Jan 1 looks to be in their future.
2. Texas Tech: What's not to like? 2 Heisman candidates in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, tons of receivers back, all 5 linemen back , and easily the best D that Leach has had there. If Mike Leach can figure out a way to first wake himself up, then devise some kind of plan to help them compete in Norman on November 22, they've got a great chance at an 11 win year, and maybe more.
3. Cincinnati: Another Big East team, and one nobody is talking about, but I like this team. There are some question marks at Qb, because Ben Mauk, their guy from last year was denied a 12th year of eligibility by the NCAA. However, the guy that played before Mauk transferred there, Dustin Grutza is no slouch, having started 24 times since his Freshman year. Their defense also looks to be very strong, as they return 43 combined sacks and INTs from a good D last year. I'm also very fond of their coach, Brian Kelly..Cincy is a dark horse in the Big East.
4. Indiana: Don't laugh. Ok laugh. They actually made a mistake in hiring Bill Lynch on full time, but for the short term, it might work out. This could be one of those predictions that I look back on and cringe, but hear me out. They backed into a bowl game last year, but were fairly legit, and they've got a good shot to do the same thing again, with an outside shot of reaching one of the upper tier B10 bowls due to their schedule. They miss Ohio St and Michigan(no great travesty this year)in the B10 schedule, and their NC schedule is predictably cupcake city. I actually think they made an attempt to be even more cowardly than their schedule makes them appear, since I'm sure if they could trade in Ball St and Central Michigan for a couple other MAC teams, they'd do it immediately. Their last 2 games are on the road with Purdue and Penn St, but prior to that, 8 of their first 10 are at home, and one of the road games is against Minnesota, a winnable game if there ever was one. Their home games are with Western Ky, the Racers of Murray St, aforementioned MACsters CMU and Testicle Tech, Michigan St, Iowa and Northwestern.MSU, NW and Iowa will be fighting for the same lot in life that the Hoosiers will....home field will be big in those games. They then get the Badgers at home, followed by the final two. They have a great shot to be 9-1 (the other road game is at Illinois) when they tee it up with Wisconsin, and anything less than 8-2 would have to include at least one loss as a significant favorite. As far as the team goes, Kellen Lewis should be back from his indiscretions in the offseason, and he is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He ran for 1,000 yards and threw for 3k more with a 28-10 ratio. On defense, this will be their best squad in many years, with a lot of their playmakers returning. Most of the publications I've seen has IU coming in last in the Big Ten. I just don't think that can possibly happen. Not to belabor this point, but this looks like a pretty interesting situation. They will almost certainly be ranked into October.
5. The MAC West: There are some very good teams in this division, two of whom I mentioned already, CMU and Nad St. Cmu has one of the best players not playing in a BCS league, Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour. They also have every conceivable player back who did anything on their team last year, and they should have beaten Purdue in the bowl game. They always play a tough schedule, and they got pounded at times last year in the NC, but they will probably be more of a tough out this year when they play Georgia, Purdue and Indiana. Ball St has another good QB in Nate Davis, and a bunch of good skill guys in the passing game. Western Michigan also looks good. This might be a year that some Big Ten teams slip up against the MAC like in years past.
6. FAU: Teams looking for feeble homecoming opponents used to come calling to Florida Atlantic with check in hand, and FAU has been a willing speedbag while they've tried to build up their program, but the Owls have now graduated to a second level of sorts. The Sun Belt has been a goofy league, where upsets routinely happen because every team in the league was bad enough to get beat as a DD favorite.That is unlikely to happen this year because FAU is so far ahead of everyone else in the league now that Haugabook from Troy and his jackrabbit but rockheaded buddies have all "graduated". This was a prolific offense last year. QB Rusty Smith (great name) is another underrated QB (32/9 ratio) who led the team to 7 30+ performances, and they have everyone back. This is probably the easiest conference race to handicap in the country, even easier than the PAC 10. Not that anyone cares about the Sun Belt, but there you go.
Teams I don't like:
1. Mich Shit gan: So now they have Dick Rod. Ok, great. Explain to me, Mr Dick Rod, who is going to score your touchdowns this year? Mike Hart? Gone. Manningham? Gone. Arrington? Gone. Henne? Sucked anyway, but gone. Also, you have no quarterbacks who don't look like Lerch from the Addams Family, and your non-freshman running backs are either ineligible, on crack, or fat. Not a good fit for the run n choke(see Pitt last year) offense you run. Throw in the fact that there is only 1 returning starter on the line, and you've got some issues my friend. Actually, the guys projected to start on the OL haven't even seen much action, not even in mop up duty. Defensively, they have some guys back, but it's not like they set the world ablaze on that side of the ball last year. Frankly, they remind of Notre Dame coming into last year. They can't possibly be that bad, though. Here's hoping they are! Cheers!
2. Notre Dame: Holy shit, where do I start with this pack of non-talents.The common refrain among the talking heads is that Notre Dame will bounce back this year. I guess that's because they are Notre Dame, and they have Coach Front-Butt and his brilliant, savvy, I'm smarter than you are schemes. Do we have to remind people how bad this team was last year? In week 7, they were dead last in the NCAA in total offense by almost 100 yards per game. 4 times(4 TIMES!!!) they were held under 20 yards in a first half and failed to gain 200 yards in a game 7 times. 3 times they were held under 100 yards for an entire game. Keep in mind that when they teed it up last year, Charlie had 2 1/2 recruiting classes under his considerable belt. Did he recruit a bunch of twerps? I think not. So what does that say? He either recruited players with talent enough to be easily the worst offense in D-1, or his schemes were sorely lacking. Taking a look at his roster, it's pretty much the same guys who sucked ass last year, so where is the improvement coming from? Mr Wonderful is going to have to prove it to us. By the way, is there a more disturbing looking college football player than Jimmy Claussen. With his long hair, he looks like a newly transgendered male. He is not difficult to dislike. It's too bad, because now that I cover South Bend, and have some dealer acquaintances with close ties to the program I wouldn't mind not despising this team. Oh well.
3. Miami(FL): The free fall enabled by Skeletor Coker has been only enhanced by the overmatched Randy Shannon. When is this administration going to figure out that they can only be relevant if they get a bunch of coked up street thugs? For the third year in a row, their offense stunk, and now they have to break in another QB, probably a freshman. Defensively, they should be pretty good, but they won't score many points. They also don't have any home field advantage anymore, since they moved to whatever they call the Dolphins home stadium these days. They'll probably draw about 20k per game.
4. Louisville: How the mighty have fallen. This team used to assault whatever team had the misfortune of playing them at home. Now they are but a shell of themselves, having lost at home to Syracuse of all people, the undisputed king of the BCS weaklings. They lost just about every link to their dominant recent past this past year. All new receivers, only the fullback returns in the backfield, and the QB is new, although Hunter Cantwell has played some in the past. Defensively, they were atrocious, so they'll have to outscore people with all new skill players, unless of course they morph into a sturdy defense overnight.
others: Mostly the usual suspects...Akron will be bad, Army, Tulane, Syracuse(really bad). I think Sly Croom will return to his rightful place in the SEC JV, they'll probably get lapped by Nutt at Ole Miss, and eventually Petrino at Arkansas. Not a fan of Texas this year, and won't until they learn to play some pass D. Colt Mc Coy lost a lot of his buddies on offense too. I assume they'll reload, but whispers are that Mack Brown missed a bit on the last couple recruiting classes.
Some trends: All ATS
Under Miles, LSU is 11-2 in nonconference ATS, 6-17-3 in conference.
Saban was 1-6 as a favorite last year at Bama.
Northwestern is 0-5 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
Missouri is 10-2 in the NC the last 3 years, Illinois is 1-6 NC in the last 2. Hmmmmmmm.
Urban Meyer is 2-9 as a road favorite at Florida.
Oregon is 12-3 as a home favorite the last 3 years.
Arizona is 1-6 as a HF under Mike Stoops.
Wyoming is 5-18 in conference over the past 3 years.
There are some others, but there are the extremes. Well, that's it for the preseason. Let's get this thing rolling. Week one musings will be coming shortly. Keep it real.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
More College Football Bowl Musings
I should probably start out by listing some other bowls that are coming up that I didn't list in the previous batch. I like this, but I'd consider them "also rans"..not official numbered musings. Tomorrow, Cincinnati is laying 10-1/2 to Southern Miss. Cincy is in a completely different class than So Miss. The throw it, they can run it, and defensively, they stop the run extremely well. VFery opportunistic on D as well, and with longtime coach Jeff Bower having been kicked to the curb, whatever assistant they use as the interim guy will get his head handed to him by Brian Kelly. SO miss can't throw it well, and Cincy won't let them use their bread and butter, which is the running game. USM's other strong suit in the past has been their defense, but even that unit has struggled at times this year....I also lean to Nevada in their game with New Mexico, even though the Lobos are at home here. Rocky Long is a solid coach, but for whatever reason, he can't win a bowl game. It's in his head I think. San Jose St came in there last year and beat him, and now he's lost his All-MWC running back to academics. Stupid academics! UNM has some talent in the passing game, but they are going to have to ratchet it up a piece if they want to hang with Nevada, because Nevada's offense is explosive, and balanced. I like the FG here. By the way, I am looking hard for some good dogs to back, especially after Christmas, since that's generally the time that dogs do well in bowl season, but I am having a hard time. 5. South Florida -6 v Oregon: At this point, we're assuming that Oregon will be starting wither a hobbling Brady Leaf or one fo those chowderheads that played over the past 2 games for the Ducks. Regardless, Oregon will have to run it to have a chance in this one, and that is very unlikely to happen on this D. On the other side of the ball, Oregon was effective enough at times on D to not embarrass themselves, but for the most part, they surrendered yards. USF has quietly piled up more than 35 points per game this year, and they'll have a comfortable matchup with the Duck D. I don't think that will happen with teh Ducks D vs USF. 6. Fresno St +6 v Georgia Tech: Ga Tech has the chance to run all over Fresno here, since they are a good running teeam and Fresno has had all kinds of trouble stopping the run, but I think this might be a case of one team just showing up and the other being solidly motivated. We've seen this drill from Fresno before, with the whole "we'll play anybody, you can't push us around angle". They have some atheletes on offense, and are facing a team without their coach being run by a D-coordinator who is out the door. Goergia Tech has had a tendency to not show up for games in which they would appear to have all kinds of reasons for motivation, and this is definitely not one of those cases. 7. Missouri -3 v Arkansas: At first glance, this one looked like a good opportunity to fade Missouri, since they will undoubtedly be bummed to be playing in this game instead of a BCS game. However, when you bring McFadden into the picture, I think Missou will know they have a game on their hands. There will be a full blown "meathead alert" set forth for this game, because interim guy Reggie Herring at Arkansas looks like a side of beef and talks like Foghorn Leghorn on speed. We are not talking about any kind of pragmatic thinking going on with this guy. On defense, Arkansas has given up points by the bushelfull especially in the passing game. Wes Carroll of Miss St threw for 400+ on them, his first ever 300 yard game, let along 400 yard game. If Wes Carrol can carve you up, what will Chase Daniel do to you? Bad things I'm afraid. Don't forget that in their last game, the Hogs were 13 point underdogs to LSU. I realize that game was on the road, and LSU has a much better D than Missouri, but I don't think those two teams are 10 points apart. 7. Texas Tech -6 v Virginia: Oftentimes, we might say about a team, "Their defense has been good, but they haven't faced a team like this before." Never has that been more true than in the case of Virginia. They have a rep of being a stout defense with an offfense that does just enough to win. Well, take a look at their competition this year, and tell me how many legitimately good offenses they've played. Wyoming? No.(106th in total offense) Duke? No.(117th) UNC? No.(105th) Georgia Tech? No. (66tth...astoundingly the best offense on their schedule)Pitt? No.(107th) MTSU? C'mon. And they had to get a TD with 10 seconds left to win that one.(95th) UConn? Not terrrible, but not good.(83rd), Maryland..nope (88th), NC St? no. (97th), Wake? No. (98th), Miami(FL)? Monumentally bad (110th) and finally, Va tech, who carved them up on their home field in the biggest game in the past 20 years for the program? No. (99th). They themselves are ranked 100th in total offense. The long and short of it is that they've made it here based almost entirely on the fact that they've been able to squeak out wins against brutal offenses. I'd venture to guess that their defense isn't actually all that good at all, Combine that with a weak suck offense, and you've got a team that's ripe for the picking if they get matched up with a solid passing attack. Enter that wildman Mike Leach and his band of pass happy ne'er do wells. This is one of those "First half/Game" bets that Hyun giggles about so often. 8. Oklahoma -7 1/2 v West Virginia: In Oklahoma's eyes, there remains an outside chance that some rebel AP voters migt vote them #1 if LSU and Ohio St have a taffy pull while OU blows the doors off West Virginia. So there's their motivation. WV has some too, but there are a lot of problems with this team. First, Rich Rodriguez's departure is a huge blow to them. Tey rely on him for everything. He calls the plays, handles all the motivation, is a father figure to Pat White. It's a bad scene there now. Plus, we've seen what happens when WV loses confidence or momentum. Very small margin of error there. One bright spot for Wv has been their D, which was ranked 3rd in the country as late as early November. Unfortunately, once they started playing some teams with offenses, they began to get exposed. Now they have one of the best in Oklahoma, and OU's D is more than capable of doing what Pitt did. Pat White's finger and shoulder are both fragile. God help him if he gets hurt. I would probably make Missouri a solid favorite over WV, and they proved that they can't handle Oklahoma. 9. Kansas +3 v Virginia Tech: Not many people are giving KU a chance because they don't think the Jayhawks belong in the Orange Bowl. They're right about that, for sure, but it doesn't mean KU can't win this game. The long and short of it is that KU is very balanced on offense, and they have proven themselves able to stop some pretty good offenses themselves. Va Tech, as we all know is very good on defense, but KU isn't the type to cough up the ball very much. VT is going to get KU's best shot, and I can't help but think that VT might be overconfident in this one, not helpful if you have the 99th ranked offense. Mark Mangino might be a dead ringer for the guy from "Jake and the Fatman", but he knows what he's doing. 10. Tulsa -4 v Bowling Green: Tulsa has boned me a couple times this year, but man can they score. BG has a weak D by MAC standards. This will be a shootout, but Tulsa is going to light up the scoreboard here. They have the #1 offense in college fooball...more yards per game than anyone. BG can score as well, but I don;t think they'll hang with Tulsa. Others: I Like Hawaii, because I think Georgia is overrated. But I was hoping more people would be counting them out. Consensus is actually on Hawaii and the spread is dropping(7 1/2), so I'm worried. Hawaii ia going to score on them though. You can be sure of that.....I also think Clemson will handle Auburn. There is a large discrepancy between these offenses. As long as Clemson hangs on to the ball, I think they will run away and hide in this one, though Auburn is darn pesky.....Air Force should beat cal, because everyone is beating Cal right now. There is no motivation there, and Cal will have all kinds of trouble figuring out the option. When you get lazy, the first thing that goes is the brain. |
Thursday, December 20, 2007
College Football Bowl Musings
A little late on the post. Sorry for the tardiness.....
A lot has happened since the last week of the season. I probably should have jotted some things down on the blog, but wow, I have been sooo...I'll stop right there. Everybody in the mother-effing free world considers themselves "busy'. It's as if people need to say that to legitimize their pathetic non-busy lives. Spare me junior. Here's the truth...I haven't had a coherent thought in the past 3 weeks. Thee has been some news though:
Did anyone hear about that steriods in baseball thing? Wow. Some guys in baseball actually took steroids. Who knew?
Lots of coaching changes, led by yet another tough break in "potential coaching scenarios that didn't work out like I wanted as it pertains to the Illini" I'm about 0 for 100 on this scenario. Let's review: Over the past several years, there have been all kinds of coaching rumors that could potentially affect Illinois, both in football and basketball. Here they are:
1. 2003- North Carolina considers firing BB coach Matt Doherty. My take at the time: "I hope this doesn't happen. No way will Roy Williams be able to resist Carolina a second time, especially since he will be able to ride in on a white horse to rescue a team with 14 MC D's All Americans. If he goes, Kansas will open up, and that might be the only place Self might leave to go to." Result: Doherty fired.
2. 2003- North Carolina woos Roy Williams. Williams claims "I don't fucking give a flying fuck about North Carolina, you snaggletoothed hagbeast" to Bonnie Bernstien after the NC game that year. My thoughts: "Don't do it Huckleberry!" Result: He takes the job.
3. 2003 Bill Self gets feelers from Kansas 15 seconds after Williams bolts to Caolina. Me: "Please don't go. We are about to dominate the Big Ten for many years to come...Charlie Villanueva is coming and the rest will follow. Glory awaits!" Result: He goes to Kansas.
4. 2003- Step 4 in the coaching merry go-round is rumored to be Tom Crean to Illinois. Me: "I hope this happens. He's a good coach with a nose for talent who can recruit. he's young and energetic. Nice package." Result: Crean decides to stay at Marquette/
5. 2003- Illinois rumored to hire Bruce Weber from SIU. Me: "I hope not. Looks like he is a good coach, but man, he's kind of whiny and unlikable. I don't think he has the goods to recruit with the big boys either. Probably is in a good spot as a 'coach 'em up' mid major type." Result: Illinois hires Weber.
Fast forward to this year......
Strong rumor: Les Miles to Michigan. (By the way, I am convinced that had West Virginia beaten Pitt, Miles is in his office in Ann Arbor staring at the wall right now.) My thoughts: "Please please please please please please please. The final nail in the coffin of the declining Michigan program. Hopefully they won't give him a Wonderlic as a replacement for a physical." Result. WVU blows it, LSU is in the MNC game, and Miles has no choice but to stay put, since he can't put on this charade for a whole month, and Michigan can't wait that long.
Next rumor: Rich Rodriguez to Michigan: Me: "Please, no. Illinois is positioned to be among the top two in the B10 because they are the only serious recruiting player in the B10 that runs a spread. If those dicks bring this guy in, now they have a spread, and they'll become Illinois on steriods. But shit, the guy said just last year that he wants to retire at his alma mater since he has a chance to compete for MNCs every year. He can't leave now can he?" Result: Rodriguez takes the job.
So you see...the vicious trend continues. Recapping the season: We ended up 80-64 after a very welcome 5-1 finish in the last week. that's 55 %. Not great, but at least you can make some money at that clip. Thanks to a couple nice parlays, I ended up about 25 units up. A little down compared to last year, but I'll take it I guess. Unlike last year, hopefully we can make some money in the bowls. I got cornholed last year, with my three biggest losses coming from fading the Big Ten dogs. Unfortunately, I see more of the same this year, so tread lightly.
On to the bowls: They're in chronological order: I am going to start with a few, and then follow with the rest in a couple days.
1. BYU -5 1/2 v UCLA: Strong motivational advantage for BYu here. This is one of two rematches this year(boo!!). UCLA topped BYU in week 2 in the Rose Bowl by 10, but lucked out in that one. BYU outgained them by 200 yards, and there were all kinds of bad breaks for the Mormons that day. UCLA also did a fair amount of squaking after the game. Now BYU plays in their home bowl to get a measure of revenge against a team that just fired their coach and has very little to play for. Everything will have to go right for them from the get go to stay interested. As soon as they get a tough break, this team will fall apart. BYU travels well to this game too. Oregon found themselves on the wrong end of a BYU ass kicking last year in a similar spot. Granted, that BYU team was better than this one, but not by much. That Oregon team, however, was much better than this UCLA team. Could get ugly.
2. Arizona St +2 1/2 v Texas: Good Holiday Bowl matchup here. Should be a nice, colorful game on the San Diego grass. That's another of countless reasons to like bowls...the cool uni combinations with the painted endzones for the two teams. ok, moving on...Both of these teams can move the ball well, but both have achilles heels. I just think Texas has more problems. First, ASU's major problem is protecting Rudy Carpenter, as they rank 117th in the country in sacks allowed, but Texas has not pressured anyone this year, especially lately. Their pass defense borders on asinine, as they rank 109th in the country in that category while Carpenter ranks 11th in passer rating. Consider their last 4 games. Stephen Mcgee threw for 362 yards on them for A&M. He's an option QB. Zac Robinson of Okie St threw for 430 the week before, a career high by more than 150 yards. Nebraska threw for 300+ the week before with an injured Sam Keller, and the great Michael Machen who transferred to Baylor because he couldn't start for KENT for crying out loud torched them for 285 yards. Also, throw in the fact that Colt McCoy has been error prone(21 TD/18 INT) and you have a good matchup for ASU.
3. BC -3 1/2 V Michigan St: How does the Big Ten continually get saddled with matchups like this? Their #6 team has to play a team that was one half away from the BCS? Whatever. Michigan St has a pretty nice team, and they have cashed tickets for me as outright dog winners in their last two games, but this is a bad matchup. Their pass defense is at best lacking and is overall problematic. Enter Matt Ryan, who admitedly has fallen off lately, but will be seeing a step down from the Clemsons and the Va Techs of the world with this MSU outfit. MSU is pretty good on offense, but mostly because of their solid running game, which is likely to be shut down by BC, the #1 run D in the country this year. BC might be disappointed in theor assignment, but they should roll. The public being on this at a 78% clip is horrifyig to me, but the public looks to have the right side here.
4. TCU -4 v Houston: Another public favorite. However, I think it's the right side. TCU staggered through the middle part of it's schedule due to a number of reasons, #1 being that their best player, NFL calber DE Tommy Blake was out with a kidney problem. He's back now. TCU's problem this year has mostly been on the offensive side. These problems got serious when they started screwing around with "atheltic" (read: scattershot) QB Marcus Jackson. Their starter, Andy Dalton should be back, and they actually put up some decent passing numbers when Dalton was healthy this year, including a 300+ performance against Stanford, and some other niceties. Houston's D is not much of a pressure unit, as is true with the rest of C-USA, who collectively look at defense as an opportunity to return kickoffs. As a result, Dalton will be confortable. On the flip side, Houston has not seen anywhere close to the caliber of D that Gary Patterson has at TCU. Also, Art Briles and his 2(!!!) top offensive coaches are already in Waco starting on their Baylor assignment, so they aren't going to be available, and that it a big deal. Their QB is young, he doesn't have his coach, and TCU is formidable. They'll get enough going on offense to put some points up on this C-USA team.
Others: I like Memphis getting points(+2 1/2)from a Sun Belt team. Neither team can really stop anyone, but I think Memphis has a bit more experience in situations like this, and I think their pass offense is a tad better than FAU's. This line is an overreaction to last year's NO bowl, in which Rice got slapped around by Troy. Keep in mind also that FAU is two weeks away from having been a 15 point underdog to Troy. They won that game, but really, can we expect a monumental performance again from them? There is no way they expected to be in this position......I'm in the minority, but I really like Navy(+8). They lost their coach, but immediately promoted their offensive coordinator to the post so they'll probably have a relatively seemless transition for the bowl, although I have a lot of respect for Paul Johnson. Navy, as has been repeated in the musings, cannot stop any decent passing attack. They would be in a world of hurt if they were linig up against a Texas tech, or an Indiana, or any kind of athletic passing team. However, Utah is not dynamic on offense. They would rather run it with Darrell Mack and dink it down the field. This works to navy's favor. I've seen a lot of people predict that Utah scores every time they tough the ball. I don;t see it that way. Also, Utah's defensive prowess, which in my opinion has been overrated since they haven't played many good offenses, will be mitigated by the fact that Navy scores on everyone. Everyone. It's also historically difficult to cover as a big favorite when you get outrushed by a significant amount, which is very likely in this one. I'm taking the 8 here.
That's it for now. I'll have more probably tonight.
A lot has happened since the last week of the season. I probably should have jotted some things down on the blog, but wow, I have been sooo...I'll stop right there. Everybody in the mother-effing free world considers themselves "busy'. It's as if people need to say that to legitimize their pathetic non-busy lives. Spare me junior. Here's the truth...I haven't had a coherent thought in the past 3 weeks. Thee has been some news though:
Did anyone hear about that steriods in baseball thing? Wow. Some guys in baseball actually took steroids. Who knew?
Lots of coaching changes, led by yet another tough break in "potential coaching scenarios that didn't work out like I wanted as it pertains to the Illini" I'm about 0 for 100 on this scenario. Let's review: Over the past several years, there have been all kinds of coaching rumors that could potentially affect Illinois, both in football and basketball. Here they are:
1. 2003- North Carolina considers firing BB coach Matt Doherty. My take at the time: "I hope this doesn't happen. No way will Roy Williams be able to resist Carolina a second time, especially since he will be able to ride in on a white horse to rescue a team with 14 MC D's All Americans. If he goes, Kansas will open up, and that might be the only place Self might leave to go to." Result: Doherty fired.
2. 2003- North Carolina woos Roy Williams. Williams claims "I don't fucking give a flying fuck about North Carolina, you snaggletoothed hagbeast" to Bonnie Bernstien after the NC game that year. My thoughts: "Don't do it Huckleberry!" Result: He takes the job.
3. 2003 Bill Self gets feelers from Kansas 15 seconds after Williams bolts to Caolina. Me: "Please don't go. We are about to dominate the Big Ten for many years to come...Charlie Villanueva is coming and the rest will follow. Glory awaits!" Result: He goes to Kansas.
4. 2003- Step 4 in the coaching merry go-round is rumored to be Tom Crean to Illinois. Me: "I hope this happens. He's a good coach with a nose for talent who can recruit. he's young and energetic. Nice package." Result: Crean decides to stay at Marquette/
5. 2003- Illinois rumored to hire Bruce Weber from SIU. Me: "I hope not. Looks like he is a good coach, but man, he's kind of whiny and unlikable. I don't think he has the goods to recruit with the big boys either. Probably is in a good spot as a 'coach 'em up' mid major type." Result: Illinois hires Weber.
Fast forward to this year......
Strong rumor: Les Miles to Michigan. (By the way, I am convinced that had West Virginia beaten Pitt, Miles is in his office in Ann Arbor staring at the wall right now.) My thoughts: "Please please please please please please please. The final nail in the coffin of the declining Michigan program. Hopefully they won't give him a Wonderlic as a replacement for a physical." Result. WVU blows it, LSU is in the MNC game, and Miles has no choice but to stay put, since he can't put on this charade for a whole month, and Michigan can't wait that long.
Next rumor: Rich Rodriguez to Michigan: Me: "Please, no. Illinois is positioned to be among the top two in the B10 because they are the only serious recruiting player in the B10 that runs a spread. If those dicks bring this guy in, now they have a spread, and they'll become Illinois on steriods. But shit, the guy said just last year that he wants to retire at his alma mater since he has a chance to compete for MNCs every year. He can't leave now can he?" Result: Rodriguez takes the job.
So you see...the vicious trend continues. Recapping the season: We ended up 80-64 after a very welcome 5-1 finish in the last week. that's 55 %. Not great, but at least you can make some money at that clip. Thanks to a couple nice parlays, I ended up about 25 units up. A little down compared to last year, but I'll take it I guess. Unlike last year, hopefully we can make some money in the bowls. I got cornholed last year, with my three biggest losses coming from fading the Big Ten dogs. Unfortunately, I see more of the same this year, so tread lightly.
On to the bowls: They're in chronological order: I am going to start with a few, and then follow with the rest in a couple days.
1. BYU -5 1/2 v UCLA: Strong motivational advantage for BYu here. This is one of two rematches this year(boo!!). UCLA topped BYU in week 2 in the Rose Bowl by 10, but lucked out in that one. BYU outgained them by 200 yards, and there were all kinds of bad breaks for the Mormons that day. UCLA also did a fair amount of squaking after the game. Now BYU plays in their home bowl to get a measure of revenge against a team that just fired their coach and has very little to play for. Everything will have to go right for them from the get go to stay interested. As soon as they get a tough break, this team will fall apart. BYU travels well to this game too. Oregon found themselves on the wrong end of a BYU ass kicking last year in a similar spot. Granted, that BYU team was better than this one, but not by much. That Oregon team, however, was much better than this UCLA team. Could get ugly.
2. Arizona St +2 1/2 v Texas: Good Holiday Bowl matchup here. Should be a nice, colorful game on the San Diego grass. That's another of countless reasons to like bowls...the cool uni combinations with the painted endzones for the two teams. ok, moving on...Both of these teams can move the ball well, but both have achilles heels. I just think Texas has more problems. First, ASU's major problem is protecting Rudy Carpenter, as they rank 117th in the country in sacks allowed, but Texas has not pressured anyone this year, especially lately. Their pass defense borders on asinine, as they rank 109th in the country in that category while Carpenter ranks 11th in passer rating. Consider their last 4 games. Stephen Mcgee threw for 362 yards on them for A&M. He's an option QB. Zac Robinson of Okie St threw for 430 the week before, a career high by more than 150 yards. Nebraska threw for 300+ the week before with an injured Sam Keller, and the great Michael Machen who transferred to Baylor because he couldn't start for KENT for crying out loud torched them for 285 yards. Also, throw in the fact that Colt McCoy has been error prone(21 TD/18 INT) and you have a good matchup for ASU.
3. BC -3 1/2 V Michigan St: How does the Big Ten continually get saddled with matchups like this? Their #6 team has to play a team that was one half away from the BCS? Whatever. Michigan St has a pretty nice team, and they have cashed tickets for me as outright dog winners in their last two games, but this is a bad matchup. Their pass defense is at best lacking and is overall problematic. Enter Matt Ryan, who admitedly has fallen off lately, but will be seeing a step down from the Clemsons and the Va Techs of the world with this MSU outfit. MSU is pretty good on offense, but mostly because of their solid running game, which is likely to be shut down by BC, the #1 run D in the country this year. BC might be disappointed in theor assignment, but they should roll. The public being on this at a 78% clip is horrifyig to me, but the public looks to have the right side here.
4. TCU -4 v Houston: Another public favorite. However, I think it's the right side. TCU staggered through the middle part of it's schedule due to a number of reasons, #1 being that their best player, NFL calber DE Tommy Blake was out with a kidney problem. He's back now. TCU's problem this year has mostly been on the offensive side. These problems got serious when they started screwing around with "atheltic" (read: scattershot) QB Marcus Jackson. Their starter, Andy Dalton should be back, and they actually put up some decent passing numbers when Dalton was healthy this year, including a 300+ performance against Stanford, and some other niceties. Houston's D is not much of a pressure unit, as is true with the rest of C-USA, who collectively look at defense as an opportunity to return kickoffs. As a result, Dalton will be confortable. On the flip side, Houston has not seen anywhere close to the caliber of D that Gary Patterson has at TCU. Also, Art Briles and his 2(!!!) top offensive coaches are already in Waco starting on their Baylor assignment, so they aren't going to be available, and that it a big deal. Their QB is young, he doesn't have his coach, and TCU is formidable. They'll get enough going on offense to put some points up on this C-USA team.
Others: I like Memphis getting points(+2 1/2)from a Sun Belt team. Neither team can really stop anyone, but I think Memphis has a bit more experience in situations like this, and I think their pass offense is a tad better than FAU's. This line is an overreaction to last year's NO bowl, in which Rice got slapped around by Troy. Keep in mind also that FAU is two weeks away from having been a 15 point underdog to Troy. They won that game, but really, can we expect a monumental performance again from them? There is no way they expected to be in this position......I'm in the minority, but I really like Navy(+8). They lost their coach, but immediately promoted their offensive coordinator to the post so they'll probably have a relatively seemless transition for the bowl, although I have a lot of respect for Paul Johnson. Navy, as has been repeated in the musings, cannot stop any decent passing attack. They would be in a world of hurt if they were linig up against a Texas tech, or an Indiana, or any kind of athletic passing team. However, Utah is not dynamic on offense. They would rather run it with Darrell Mack and dink it down the field. This works to navy's favor. I've seen a lot of people predict that Utah scores every time they tough the ball. I don;t see it that way. Also, Utah's defensive prowess, which in my opinion has been overrated since they haven't played many good offenses, will be mitigated by the fact that Navy scores on everyone. Everyone. It's also historically difficult to cover as a big favorite when you get outrushed by a significant amount, which is very likely in this one. I'm taking the 8 here.
That's it for now. I'll have more probably tonight.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Week 14 College Football Musings
My historical worst week of the season, Thanksgiving, continued it's shitfest this year. Everything I touched turned to fecal matter. 3-4-1. Just start fading me I guess. USC and Florida are the most perfect football teams the Good Lord has ever bestowed on this earth, apparently. I bet on Florida, they suck donkey ass against Georgia. I bet on USC, they look like a bunch of frightened children against Oregon. Then both of them completely lay a beat down on a couple of solid clubs. Whatever. By the way, I'm getting to the point where I am trying to handicap which team is most likely to win the turnover battle, but we all know that's a bunch of nonsense, since it's impossible to tell who is going to drop the football in a given week, and if we waste time trying to predict it, we'll end up in like J Peterman in the Burmese jungle speaking gibberish to one of the natives. Having said that, I'm still considering it, because I am getting hammered by turnovers. I stopped counting, but I amidst the carnage last weekend, I checked the box scores of the games I bet on to see how many of "my" teams won the turnover battle. I stopped checking after game #13, when the grand total remained at zero. On those 13 games, I was -23. Nice. Waaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!!!!!! Stop crying you half a queer! Season results aren't worth talking about anymore. If you followed the numbered musings this year, you'd be up enough to maybe buy yourself a Mars Bar.
As for the BCS/why is there not a playoff babble, we all agree that college football is great, yes? Every once in awhile there is a season like this one where there is no clear cut participants who we all can agree should be facing off in the MNC game. In most years, there is. Why do we feel that there is a need to change the entire landscape of a great sport just so we MIGHT be able to better identify who should be playing in one game. Is avoiding the unfortunate circumstance of a team having an unfulfilled claim to the play in the MNC game worth changing college football as we know it? I don't know about you guys, but other than for gambling purposes, I don't give even one quarter of a shit about college basketball right now, nor will I at any point until March, since my team inexplicably doesn't have a single good player on it. I don't want that to happen to college football. I'm not saying that a playoff couldn't work, but I just don't want to take a chance that it makes it worse.
The only good thing to say about this being the last week of college football is that we are that much closer to the bowl season. Here we go:
1. Oklahoma -3 V Missouri: Missouri played a fantastic game against Kansas last week, much better than I thought they could. If Gary Pinkel can get his team to play that well one week later, when all the pressure in the world is on his team, then he is all that and a bag of Doritos. Here's the problem. Oklahoma is better than Missouri. They aren't as consistent, but they're better. There is a ton of pressure on this Missouri team, since they are playing for a chance to play for the National Championship for the second week in a row. That is heavy, baby. Both teams have weak pass defenses, but interestingly, OU has the higher ranked pass offense, as well as a higher ranked pass defense. Mizzou is at 107 in pass D efficiency, and Bradford is ranked #2 among QBs in the same area. I just think asking Mizzou to pull this out, a week after the biggest game in their history is asking too much.
2. Tennessee +7 1/2 v LSU: Ok, can someone please explain to me why I keep hearing people on the radio say variations of the following: "I realize that LSU has lost two games, but in my opinion, if they had a playoff, they would walk right through it." Must we continue to listen to people continue to say that LSU is he best team in the country? Based on what? The Virginia Tech game? After that game, we assumed that this was what we could expect from LSU. Then the Tulane game happened, where they trailed at halftime. We all figured that was an anomaly. Then the should have lost to Florida. Then they definitely should have lost at home to a decent Auburn team. Then they should really definitely have lost to a .500 Alabama squad. Another anomaly. Then they gav up 465 yards and got outgained by 100 against Ole Miss with their backup QB in there. Fluke. Then they lost at home to a ho hum Arkansas team(lost to Kentucky at home, hammered by Tennessee, etc) when they were playing for the right to go to the National Championship as a 2 TD favorite. So what game was the anomaly? Yeah, the Va Tech game. Conclusion: As much as we all want LSU to be the best team in the country, they just aren't, ok? They're coached by a moron, and they just arent the best team in the country. Deal with it America, and move on. ok.....so now they get Tennessee. They've been carved up by just about everyone in their last 8 games, and you can make a case that this is the best offense they have faced since Florida. Very balanced. LSU does do a couple things well: put pressure on the QB, and get turnovers. However, Erik Ainge does a great job of holding on to the ball, and he's only been sacked 4 times ALL SEASON. LSU is bummed out because their chances to play for the MNC are gone. I think it shapes up for a good opportunity for UT. Their defense is not good, but LSU has not exactly lit it up on offense lately either.
3. Virginia Tech -4 1/2 v Boston College: This is a very dangerous play because a lot of public consensus agrees with it, but I think this is the play here. Va Tech has the obvious emotional edge because of what happened to them in Blacksburg a few weeks ago. Don't forget that for most of that game Matt Ryan looked awful, as did the BC offensive line. Also, since then, VT has turned into a downright respectable offensive club, with Branden Ore finding holes and Sean Glennon turning remarkably accurate throwing the ball. They piled up 430 yards against a very good Virginia defense on the road last week, and they ran Miami off the field the week before that On the flip side, BC slogged through a weak performance against Miami last week, and was extremely lucky to beat Clemson the week prior to that. I think the Hokies get it done here and move on to the BCS.
4. @Stanford +13 v Cal: Has anyone actually watched Cal play the last month. They suck. They can't stop anyone, and their offense has become largely pedestrian. I know Stanford is nothing to look at themselves, since they have the offensive explosiveness of a potted plant, but they still play hard, and this will be their Super Bowl for sure. Cal is just trying to get the whole thing over with and they have been in that mode since the USC game. 13 is a lot here. One other thing. If Cal wins, they play at home in shit weather in the Emerald Bowl. I they lose, they get to go to Vegas. Maybe not a bad idea if they lose, huh?
5. North Texas - 2 1/2 @ Fla International: What the hell am I doing here? No kidding, I feel dirty even referring to this game, backing a 1-10 team as a road favorite. Sometimes, though, just keep it simple. FLAINT is ranked 118th in total offense, 107th in total defense. It's the last ever college football game in the Orange Bowl, but that didn't work for Miami, so why should it work for Florida International? North Texas actually can move the ball, and they've done it both on the ground and through the air recently. All they have to do is beat this putrid team. I'm guessing Todd Dodge, who despite his record is getting feelers from other schools, gets it done here.
6. Central Michigan -3 v Miami(OH). CMU is the best team in the MAC. They have the best QB in the conference in Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour, and he's facing a defense that has had a hard time this year. For the record, CMU's has too, but there isn't much comparison at all between the offenses. CMU has struggled as a significant favorite this year, but that's not the case here. The cream generally rises to the top in the MAC title game, and CMU is the better team with the much better QB.
Others: Who would believe two weeks ago that on November 30th, Oregon would be a 1 point dog at home to the Beavs in the civil war? Well, that's how much Dennis Dixon means to this team. It's legit. Jonathan Stewart is back, and he's their only offensive hope this week. Too bad OSU is #1 in the country against the run......I get this game wrong every year, but I'll take Army +14. They have some talent at WR and QB, and Navy cannot stop a soul on defense. As we discussed previously, they should not be favored by 2 scores when they have the worst D in division 1......I caught some of the Apple Cup last week on replay last week. I noticed that Washington was helpless against WSU's two good wide receivers, who combined to catch 12 balls for 225 yards. UW was absolutely unable to cover these guys, as their secondary is banged up and just doesn't have the bodies to handle a good passing attack. That being the case,if they can't cover 2 good receivers, how in the hell are they going to cover 5 on the island aganst Hawaii when the 'Bows will be looking to run up as many points as possible to help ther BCS case as well as Colt Brennan's Heisman case? This should actually be a musing, but Washington has been good on offense lately, so there is a risk of them putting up 40 themselves.Probably not though. Maybe the over here.
Take care and Godspeed.
As for the BCS/why is there not a playoff babble, we all agree that college football is great, yes? Every once in awhile there is a season like this one where there is no clear cut participants who we all can agree should be facing off in the MNC game. In most years, there is. Why do we feel that there is a need to change the entire landscape of a great sport just so we MIGHT be able to better identify who should be playing in one game. Is avoiding the unfortunate circumstance of a team having an unfulfilled claim to the play in the MNC game worth changing college football as we know it? I don't know about you guys, but other than for gambling purposes, I don't give even one quarter of a shit about college basketball right now, nor will I at any point until March, since my team inexplicably doesn't have a single good player on it. I don't want that to happen to college football. I'm not saying that a playoff couldn't work, but I just don't want to take a chance that it makes it worse.
The only good thing to say about this being the last week of college football is that we are that much closer to the bowl season. Here we go:
1. Oklahoma -3 V Missouri: Missouri played a fantastic game against Kansas last week, much better than I thought they could. If Gary Pinkel can get his team to play that well one week later, when all the pressure in the world is on his team, then he is all that and a bag of Doritos. Here's the problem. Oklahoma is better than Missouri. They aren't as consistent, but they're better. There is a ton of pressure on this Missouri team, since they are playing for a chance to play for the National Championship for the second week in a row. That is heavy, baby. Both teams have weak pass defenses, but interestingly, OU has the higher ranked pass offense, as well as a higher ranked pass defense. Mizzou is at 107 in pass D efficiency, and Bradford is ranked #2 among QBs in the same area. I just think asking Mizzou to pull this out, a week after the biggest game in their history is asking too much.
2. Tennessee +7 1/2 v LSU: Ok, can someone please explain to me why I keep hearing people on the radio say variations of the following: "I realize that LSU has lost two games, but in my opinion, if they had a playoff, they would walk right through it." Must we continue to listen to people continue to say that LSU is he best team in the country? Based on what? The Virginia Tech game? After that game, we assumed that this was what we could expect from LSU. Then the Tulane game happened, where they trailed at halftime. We all figured that was an anomaly. Then the should have lost to Florida. Then they definitely should have lost at home to a decent Auburn team. Then they should really definitely have lost to a .500 Alabama squad. Another anomaly. Then they gav up 465 yards and got outgained by 100 against Ole Miss with their backup QB in there. Fluke. Then they lost at home to a ho hum Arkansas team(lost to Kentucky at home, hammered by Tennessee, etc) when they were playing for the right to go to the National Championship as a 2 TD favorite. So what game was the anomaly? Yeah, the Va Tech game. Conclusion: As much as we all want LSU to be the best team in the country, they just aren't, ok? They're coached by a moron, and they just arent the best team in the country. Deal with it America, and move on. ok.....so now they get Tennessee. They've been carved up by just about everyone in their last 8 games, and you can make a case that this is the best offense they have faced since Florida. Very balanced. LSU does do a couple things well: put pressure on the QB, and get turnovers. However, Erik Ainge does a great job of holding on to the ball, and he's only been sacked 4 times ALL SEASON. LSU is bummed out because their chances to play for the MNC are gone. I think it shapes up for a good opportunity for UT. Their defense is not good, but LSU has not exactly lit it up on offense lately either.
3. Virginia Tech -4 1/2 v Boston College: This is a very dangerous play because a lot of public consensus agrees with it, but I think this is the play here. Va Tech has the obvious emotional edge because of what happened to them in Blacksburg a few weeks ago. Don't forget that for most of that game Matt Ryan looked awful, as did the BC offensive line. Also, since then, VT has turned into a downright respectable offensive club, with Branden Ore finding holes and Sean Glennon turning remarkably accurate throwing the ball. They piled up 430 yards against a very good Virginia defense on the road last week, and they ran Miami off the field the week before that On the flip side, BC slogged through a weak performance against Miami last week, and was extremely lucky to beat Clemson the week prior to that. I think the Hokies get it done here and move on to the BCS.
4. @Stanford +13 v Cal: Has anyone actually watched Cal play the last month. They suck. They can't stop anyone, and their offense has become largely pedestrian. I know Stanford is nothing to look at themselves, since they have the offensive explosiveness of a potted plant, but they still play hard, and this will be their Super Bowl for sure. Cal is just trying to get the whole thing over with and they have been in that mode since the USC game. 13 is a lot here. One other thing. If Cal wins, they play at home in shit weather in the Emerald Bowl. I they lose, they get to go to Vegas. Maybe not a bad idea if they lose, huh?
5. North Texas - 2 1/2 @ Fla International: What the hell am I doing here? No kidding, I feel dirty even referring to this game, backing a 1-10 team as a road favorite. Sometimes, though, just keep it simple. FLAINT is ranked 118th in total offense, 107th in total defense. It's the last ever college football game in the Orange Bowl, but that didn't work for Miami, so why should it work for Florida International? North Texas actually can move the ball, and they've done it both on the ground and through the air recently. All they have to do is beat this putrid team. I'm guessing Todd Dodge, who despite his record is getting feelers from other schools, gets it done here.
6. Central Michigan -3 v Miami(OH). CMU is the best team in the MAC. They have the best QB in the conference in Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour, and he's facing a defense that has had a hard time this year. For the record, CMU's has too, but there isn't much comparison at all between the offenses. CMU has struggled as a significant favorite this year, but that's not the case here. The cream generally rises to the top in the MAC title game, and CMU is the better team with the much better QB.
Others: Who would believe two weeks ago that on November 30th, Oregon would be a 1 point dog at home to the Beavs in the civil war? Well, that's how much Dennis Dixon means to this team. It's legit. Jonathan Stewart is back, and he's their only offensive hope this week. Too bad OSU is #1 in the country against the run......I get this game wrong every year, but I'll take Army +14. They have some talent at WR and QB, and Navy cannot stop a soul on defense. As we discussed previously, they should not be favored by 2 scores when they have the worst D in division 1......I caught some of the Apple Cup last week on replay last week. I noticed that Washington was helpless against WSU's two good wide receivers, who combined to catch 12 balls for 225 yards. UW was absolutely unable to cover these guys, as their secondary is banged up and just doesn't have the bodies to handle a good passing attack. That being the case,if they can't cover 2 good receivers, how in the hell are they going to cover 5 on the island aganst Hawaii when the 'Bows will be looking to run up as many points as possible to help ther BCS case as well as Colt Brennan's Heisman case? This should actually be a musing, but Washington has been good on offense lately, so there is a risk of them putting up 40 themselves.Probably not though. Maybe the over here.
Take care and Godspeed.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 13 Musings
Last week was 6-6, once again, right up there with a coin flip. Nice. What's the point, then right? Sometimes I think the same thing. Actually, oftentimes, I think the same thing because what's the point of proclaiming your acumen if you can't pick your boxers out of your asscrack, let alone have any clue whether or not Alex Brink is going to yell "you want 7 more?" at the Oregon St D as he lofts pick #6 of the first half up for grabs. Actually, in addition to the 6 picks, Wazzou also failed on a fake punt and were stopped on downs at the OSU 1 in the first half...the equivalent of 8 turnovers in one half. Resident village idiot/douchebag Bill Doba mut be very proud of "his guys". Way to entertain the home crowd in a must win game!!
After watching this past Sunday's NFL lineup, I must ask he following question: Does anybody cover anyone in the NFL? Why is it that I can routinely watch Terrell Owens streaking through the Washington secondary, completely ignored by the Redskin DBs. Maybe I'm just naive, or the game has passsed me by or whatever, but if a certain HOF wide receiver runs past you, and you are a cornerback, isn't that somewhat alarming? Like I said, I might be naive, but when I played, my #1 concern or fear was letting a receiver get behind me, because it might result in....GASP....a touchdown! That's bad! Am I right? Giving up a TD is a bad thing, right? Just checking. So why do I watch NFL cornerbacks nonchalantly backpedaling and then pretty much ignoring Randy Moss/Terrell Owens as they sprint past them, instead choosing to lock up a piece of grass in their assigned zone. "Hey man, I have deep help...I can just let him go." Yeah, deep "help". That means there MIGHT be someone back there to HELP you. You still might want to cover that guy, instead of minding a piece of field turf. Last I checked, a square yard of field turf can't catch a football, then gyrate suggestively in your face after it sashays into the endzone pimp-style. One more time: On third and 19, if Randy Moss runs past you, ther's a chance he might actually catch the ball if they throw it to him. That IS possible. You might want to buck the recent trend and try covering him. That's all.
One other quick rant: Why am I hearing this underlying Heisman babble for Glen Dorsey? Since there isn't a clear cut frontrunner(and really, who the hell gives a shit anyway), some morons are trying to bang the drum for Dorsey, since it would be cool to have a defensive guy win it. First of all, Tim Tebow should win it, and it's not even close. He just broke the season record in the SEC for most rushing TDs in a season, has the 2nd best passer rating in the country, and has done all this with a shoulder that keeps popping out of it's socket. But Dorsey? Why should he win it? Because he's the best player on a defense that gave up 40+ to Kentucky? Because he's the best player on a defense that got carved up by JP Wilson? Because he's the best player on a defense that just gave up 465 yards of offense to Ole Miss? Huh? That's actually not very good. Let's go ahead and nip that drivel in the bud, ok?
Season numbers: 72-59 on the numbered. 55%. On to this week.
1. Kansas -2 v Missouri: Both of these smiling genius programs are unbeaten against the spread. So Kansas will probably win by 2 right? Well, maybe, but I like the Jayhawks quite a bit in this one. First, this is being billed as a neutral site game, but it's actually a KU home game that they voluntarily moved to Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is in Missouri, but it's a KU town. Suffice it to say, the crowd will be mostly pro-Kansas. Both of these offenses are very good, but Kansas offers a little more balance. I also think KU has the clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball, and Mangino definitely is the superior coaching micnd compared with Gary Pinkel. If K State hd a set of balls or a couple of firing synapses, they could have run away with the game last week, especially since they outgained the Tigers 250-112 in the first half. I think KU is better in just about every phase.
2. Texas -5 1/2 @ Texas A&M: This is probably Coach Fran's swan song...ask Lloyd Carr how that went for him last week. 91 total yards...yeesh. Last year, in Austin, A&M came in and beat the Horns, who were in a bit of a freefall at the time because of Colt McCoy's problems with his melon. They pressured him, beat him up, and got just enough offense to pull the upset. Texas definitely remembers that, and will be out for revenge, especially since they can see how vulnerable Oklahoma is if Sam Bradford doesn't go on Saturday. Texas's offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, and A&M has had all kinds of trouble stopping good offenses. They key for A&M will be to stop the run and put pressure on Mc Coy, but they are giving up a lot of rushing yards (5.5 ypc on the road) and rank 107th in the country in sacks. They might hang for awhile, but once the emotion wears off, it might get ugly for the Aggies.
3. South Florida -10 1/2 @ Pitt: Another road dog, but this is a bad matchup for Wanny and company. South Florida can stuff the running game, which at this point is Pitt's bread, butter, toast and jam and they are going to be tough on freshman QB Bostick with their attacking style. Pitt has really hung tough the last couple weeks...their D has been good, but I think this is the week that they get opened up like stuck pig.
*****Thursday4. @Arizona St +3 v USC: This is a real lack of respect for a Sun Devil team that is 9-1. I realize that USC is the gold standard in the Pac 10, but they HAVE NOT been that team this year. On the road, their offense has been staunchly pedestrian. They lost to Stanford, struggled with Washington, almost lost at home to Arizona, struggled like crazy with a Cal team that has completely imploded and looked like a bunch of losers in their game at Oregon. Arizona St hung with a much better USC team last year with Dirk Koetter at the helm in Los Angeles. USC is decidedly less explosive on offense now, and say what you will about Dennis Erickson and his mysterious but unconfirmable sliminess, he makes a difference on both sides of the ball. ASU's defense is good, especially at home, and once they get rolling, their offense is solid with good balance, regardless of who is running the ball. I do believe that Arizona St is the better team, and they are at home and are getting a FG. Unless they shit the bed at the mere sight of the false idols, they should be in good shape. There is a lot of value here.
5. Arkansas +13 1/2 @LSU You might want to wait until tomorrow, because the spread might go to 14. Last year, Arkansas outgained LSU despite getting a 3 for 17 performance from QB Casey Dickface, I mean Dick. This year, he's better. Arkansas has been able to play well defensively against LSU in each of the last 2 years, and we all know that LSU, since the Va Tech game, has not been able to blow out anyone. Les Miles catches a break this week because he matches up with a coach that he won't get completely made a fool of by, but he still is at a disadvantage. I think the Hogs have it in them to put together a nice performance. If McFadden and company can really get it going, they are capable of making things very uncomfortable for LSU as they try not to screw up their spot in the MNC game.
6. @UCLA + 1 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a tough spot. Oregon is coming off a devastating loss against Arizona when they were ranked #2. Pretty much everyone else that has lost this season in that scenario has laid an egg in the following week. Oregon is a huge candidate for that. First of all, they are a completely different team with Brady Leaf at the helm instead of Dennis Dixon. This week, they'll be facing off against a solid defense on the road in UCLA with RB Jonathan Stweart hobbled. Second, their defense has been underwhelming all year, depending on the offense to outscore the other team. That's unlikely to happen this week without turnovers. UCLA might oblige, but I think this matchup favors UCLA. It's a bad spot for the Ducks.
7 @Boston College -14 1/2 v Miami(Fl): Miami has completely given up. It's true that BC has locked up a spot in the ACC title game, but it'll be Senior Day, and Miami is still a team tha people get up for, unfortunately for them. They are completely helpless in the passing game, and BC puts pressure on the QB. With Kyle Wright hurting, there might actually be a Kirby Freeman sighting. If BC puts effort into this one and actually gives a shit, it should be over by the middle of the 3rd quarter.
8. Florida St +14 @ Florida: Florida's defense is not good enough to cover this, in my opinion. Drew Weatherford, as long as he is healthy, can be effective, as he's only thrown 1 interception all year compared to 8TDs. They also moved Preston Parker to RB with good results last week. Defensively, Florida St is jacked up, and they hit hard, leaving open the possibility that Tebow will take some shots on his already injured shoulder. I think FSU will show up and play with emotion, something they did not do 2 years ago in Gainesville when they got whupped.
Others: Oklahoma might be without Sam Bradford, and they for sure will be without De Marco Murray(RB). Their defense remains very shaky against the pass. Oklahoma St is getting 11 1/2 here.If Bradford doesn't play, and they struggle on offense with the backup, that Big 12 South title that seemed a given 3 weeks ago might not happen after all.....I have a hunch that Tennessee takes care of business and wins at kentucky. They need it to get to the SEC title game. Kentucky is in a good spot motivationallty, but they're favored by 3, which I think will work against them. It's against all logic, since UT has been so awful on defense on the road this year, but I can see Ainge pulling out a good performance. I think they'll win, and really like getting points in the process.....I like Utah catching 4 1/2 in he rivalry game with BYU. There's something about BYU that keeps me unsold on them, and Utah has been on fire lately. Their coach is an asshole though......Virginia is a very good dog at home, and they are catching 3 1/2 against Va Tech. Not many people are giving them much of a shot in this one, but I have a feeling they can hold their own.....Clemson generally collapses at this point in the year, and they are favored(2 1/2) against South Carolina on the road. Spurrier has had two weeks to prepare, and this is South Carolina's last chance to actually show some balls and stop someone. Last year, South Carolina completely beat up this Clemson team, and moved the ball at will throughout the entire game. Chances are, with an extra week to prepare, they'll be in position to do so again this year.....I also like Nebraska Friday getting 4 from Colorao. With Joe Ganz under center, they have been almost unstoppable on offense. Colorado...they haven't been doing anything lately.....K State should be able to throw it at will with Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson. There is no excuse, if they are worth a crap at all to not win as a 1 point dog at Fresno. That's about it for the week. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
After watching this past Sunday's NFL lineup, I must ask he following question: Does anybody cover anyone in the NFL? Why is it that I can routinely watch Terrell Owens streaking through the Washington secondary, completely ignored by the Redskin DBs. Maybe I'm just naive, or the game has passsed me by or whatever, but if a certain HOF wide receiver runs past you, and you are a cornerback, isn't that somewhat alarming? Like I said, I might be naive, but when I played, my #1 concern or fear was letting a receiver get behind me, because it might result in....GASP....a touchdown! That's bad! Am I right? Giving up a TD is a bad thing, right? Just checking. So why do I watch NFL cornerbacks nonchalantly backpedaling and then pretty much ignoring Randy Moss/Terrell Owens as they sprint past them, instead choosing to lock up a piece of grass in their assigned zone. "Hey man, I have deep help...I can just let him go." Yeah, deep "help". That means there MIGHT be someone back there to HELP you. You still might want to cover that guy, instead of minding a piece of field turf. Last I checked, a square yard of field turf can't catch a football, then gyrate suggestively in your face after it sashays into the endzone pimp-style. One more time: On third and 19, if Randy Moss runs past you, ther's a chance he might actually catch the ball if they throw it to him. That IS possible. You might want to buck the recent trend and try covering him. That's all.
One other quick rant: Why am I hearing this underlying Heisman babble for Glen Dorsey? Since there isn't a clear cut frontrunner(and really, who the hell gives a shit anyway), some morons are trying to bang the drum for Dorsey, since it would be cool to have a defensive guy win it. First of all, Tim Tebow should win it, and it's not even close. He just broke the season record in the SEC for most rushing TDs in a season, has the 2nd best passer rating in the country, and has done all this with a shoulder that keeps popping out of it's socket. But Dorsey? Why should he win it? Because he's the best player on a defense that gave up 40+ to Kentucky? Because he's the best player on a defense that got carved up by JP Wilson? Because he's the best player on a defense that just gave up 465 yards of offense to Ole Miss? Huh? That's actually not very good. Let's go ahead and nip that drivel in the bud, ok?
Season numbers: 72-59 on the numbered. 55%. On to this week.
1. Kansas -2 v Missouri: Both of these smiling genius programs are unbeaten against the spread. So Kansas will probably win by 2 right? Well, maybe, but I like the Jayhawks quite a bit in this one. First, this is being billed as a neutral site game, but it's actually a KU home game that they voluntarily moved to Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is in Missouri, but it's a KU town. Suffice it to say, the crowd will be mostly pro-Kansas. Both of these offenses are very good, but Kansas offers a little more balance. I also think KU has the clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball, and Mangino definitely is the superior coaching micnd compared with Gary Pinkel. If K State hd a set of balls or a couple of firing synapses, they could have run away with the game last week, especially since they outgained the Tigers 250-112 in the first half. I think KU is better in just about every phase.
2. Texas -5 1/2 @ Texas A&M: This is probably Coach Fran's swan song...ask Lloyd Carr how that went for him last week. 91 total yards...yeesh. Last year, in Austin, A&M came in and beat the Horns, who were in a bit of a freefall at the time because of Colt McCoy's problems with his melon. They pressured him, beat him up, and got just enough offense to pull the upset. Texas definitely remembers that, and will be out for revenge, especially since they can see how vulnerable Oklahoma is if Sam Bradford doesn't go on Saturday. Texas's offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, and A&M has had all kinds of trouble stopping good offenses. They key for A&M will be to stop the run and put pressure on Mc Coy, but they are giving up a lot of rushing yards (5.5 ypc on the road) and rank 107th in the country in sacks. They might hang for awhile, but once the emotion wears off, it might get ugly for the Aggies.
3. South Florida -10 1/2 @ Pitt: Another road dog, but this is a bad matchup for Wanny and company. South Florida can stuff the running game, which at this point is Pitt's bread, butter, toast and jam and they are going to be tough on freshman QB Bostick with their attacking style. Pitt has really hung tough the last couple weeks...their D has been good, but I think this is the week that they get opened up like stuck pig.
*****Thursday4. @Arizona St +3 v USC: This is a real lack of respect for a Sun Devil team that is 9-1. I realize that USC is the gold standard in the Pac 10, but they HAVE NOT been that team this year. On the road, their offense has been staunchly pedestrian. They lost to Stanford, struggled with Washington, almost lost at home to Arizona, struggled like crazy with a Cal team that has completely imploded and looked like a bunch of losers in their game at Oregon. Arizona St hung with a much better USC team last year with Dirk Koetter at the helm in Los Angeles. USC is decidedly less explosive on offense now, and say what you will about Dennis Erickson and his mysterious but unconfirmable sliminess, he makes a difference on both sides of the ball. ASU's defense is good, especially at home, and once they get rolling, their offense is solid with good balance, regardless of who is running the ball. I do believe that Arizona St is the better team, and they are at home and are getting a FG. Unless they shit the bed at the mere sight of the false idols, they should be in good shape. There is a lot of value here.
5. Arkansas +13 1/2 @LSU You might want to wait until tomorrow, because the spread might go to 14. Last year, Arkansas outgained LSU despite getting a 3 for 17 performance from QB Casey Dickface, I mean Dick. This year, he's better. Arkansas has been able to play well defensively against LSU in each of the last 2 years, and we all know that LSU, since the Va Tech game, has not been able to blow out anyone. Les Miles catches a break this week because he matches up with a coach that he won't get completely made a fool of by, but he still is at a disadvantage. I think the Hogs have it in them to put together a nice performance. If McFadden and company can really get it going, they are capable of making things very uncomfortable for LSU as they try not to screw up their spot in the MNC game.
6. @UCLA + 1 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a tough spot. Oregon is coming off a devastating loss against Arizona when they were ranked #2. Pretty much everyone else that has lost this season in that scenario has laid an egg in the following week. Oregon is a huge candidate for that. First of all, they are a completely different team with Brady Leaf at the helm instead of Dennis Dixon. This week, they'll be facing off against a solid defense on the road in UCLA with RB Jonathan Stweart hobbled. Second, their defense has been underwhelming all year, depending on the offense to outscore the other team. That's unlikely to happen this week without turnovers. UCLA might oblige, but I think this matchup favors UCLA. It's a bad spot for the Ducks.
7 @Boston College -14 1/2 v Miami(Fl): Miami has completely given up. It's true that BC has locked up a spot in the ACC title game, but it'll be Senior Day, and Miami is still a team tha people get up for, unfortunately for them. They are completely helpless in the passing game, and BC puts pressure on the QB. With Kyle Wright hurting, there might actually be a Kirby Freeman sighting. If BC puts effort into this one and actually gives a shit, it should be over by the middle of the 3rd quarter.
8. Florida St +14 @ Florida: Florida's defense is not good enough to cover this, in my opinion. Drew Weatherford, as long as he is healthy, can be effective, as he's only thrown 1 interception all year compared to 8TDs. They also moved Preston Parker to RB with good results last week. Defensively, Florida St is jacked up, and they hit hard, leaving open the possibility that Tebow will take some shots on his already injured shoulder. I think FSU will show up and play with emotion, something they did not do 2 years ago in Gainesville when they got whupped.
Others: Oklahoma might be without Sam Bradford, and they for sure will be without De Marco Murray(RB). Their defense remains very shaky against the pass. Oklahoma St is getting 11 1/2 here.If Bradford doesn't play, and they struggle on offense with the backup, that Big 12 South title that seemed a given 3 weeks ago might not happen after all.....I have a hunch that Tennessee takes care of business and wins at kentucky. They need it to get to the SEC title game. Kentucky is in a good spot motivationallty, but they're favored by 3, which I think will work against them. It's against all logic, since UT has been so awful on defense on the road this year, but I can see Ainge pulling out a good performance. I think they'll win, and really like getting points in the process.....I like Utah catching 4 1/2 in he rivalry game with BYU. There's something about BYU that keeps me unsold on them, and Utah has been on fire lately. Their coach is an asshole though......Virginia is a very good dog at home, and they are catching 3 1/2 against Va Tech. Not many people are giving them much of a shot in this one, but I have a feeling they can hold their own.....Clemson generally collapses at this point in the year, and they are favored(2 1/2) against South Carolina on the road. Spurrier has had two weeks to prepare, and this is South Carolina's last chance to actually show some balls and stop someone. Last year, South Carolina completely beat up this Clemson team, and moved the ball at will throughout the entire game. Chances are, with an extra week to prepare, they'll be in position to do so again this year.....I also like Nebraska Friday getting 4 from Colorao. With Joe Ganz under center, they have been almost unstoppable on offense. Colorado...they haven't been doing anything lately.....K State should be able to throw it at will with Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson. There is no excuse, if they are worth a crap at all to not win as a 1 point dog at Fresno. That's about it for the week. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Musings
Wow...week 12 already. It seems like just yesterday that I was doing the preseason musings, and here we are in the last full schedule week of the year. Kind of sad, but it means that bowl games will be here before too long. Since my entre family has contracted the flu, and a particulary violent, projectile vomiting strain at that, I haven't had a whole lot of time to cap the weekday games. Having said that, I did spend some time on that Oregon/Arizona game from last night. Generally, when you have a Thursday night home dog, the points are attractive, especially when the favorite struggles to stop the pass and the dog can pile up passing yards. I stayed off this one, though, because I didn't see Arizona being able to stop Oregon(with Dixon), and Oregon has a penchant for big plays on D, while Arizona has given up a lot of sacks and negative plays. So I stayed away.
I feel compelled to state this again, though: I really like that Thursday night ESPN crew, especially the broadcasters. Chris Fowler is a solid PBP guy who doesn't get in the way with his own opinions, and if he offers one, it's usually astute. Craig James and Doug Flutie are very likable, and Erin Andrews is there to look at. (I said look at, not listen to). Speaking of Flutie, I thought he was great last night. Generally, in an analyst, you want someone who can give you insight you didn't already have, or point out things you haven't noticed. Granted, not an easy task, but he did it last night. In the defining drive of the game late in the 4th quarter for Arizona, Tuitama tripped over his center, resulting in a fumble when he botched the handoff to the running back. Oregon recovered, and it looked like they were on the way to tying the game, a crippling mistake by Arizona. Generally, when there's a fumble, I might not mentally turn the page because it might have looked like the runner was down or whatever, so you consider the possibility of replay, but in this case, it never occurred to me that a replay might be needed until Flutie remarked that Arizona might want to look for a review since Tuitama's knee might have been down before he handed the ball off. Sure enough, it was. Then, in the delay during which the officials were trying to figure out where to spot the ball, Flutie said, "I don't know what the problem is here, the ball should be spotted on the 38 1/2 yard line." They hadn't even shown the replay yet. When the replay came on, Tuitama's knee clearly was down at the 36, so I thought to myself that the bal should be spotted there. However, just as I was thinking that, Flutie says, "Now remember(dumbass), the ball should be spotted where the ball is, not where his knee touches". DUH. Because there was so much emphasis on looking at the timing of his knee touching, I completely forgot to notice that he was stretching another yard or 2 when reaching to hand it off. Nice work by Flutie there. With as much complaining and hand wringing I do about Mike Patrick, All NFL Fox analysts other than Aikman and that abomination that makes Monday Nights an excruciating, torturesome experience complete with burning sensation, we should point out when a telecast is downright delightful. One other quick note, now that A Rod has re-signed with the Yankees and Barry Bonds has been indicted, we can all pretty much forget about listening to any National sports talk radio for the next month. Unless of course you strive to be bored out of your mind.
Last week was another waste of time, 5-5, right up there with a coin flip. It would have been better if some live home dogs could have shown up instead of completely shitting the bed and themselves. South Carolina never stopped Florida once. Not once. They fumbled the snap on the first play from scrimmage. What a bunch of fags. Oklahoma St was completely dumbfounded by the cosmic greatness that is the Kansas offense, run by the genius man/walrus Mark Mangino. Maybe some of these dogs will fare better this week. Season numbers: 66-53. 55.5%. Need a good week.
1. @Michigan St +3 v Penn State: Well, another week, another dissertation about how Anthony Morelli can't win a game for you on the road. Obviously, Penn State is good defensively, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. Even last week against Temple, Penn St gave up almost 200 yards in the first half. MSU's offense is really coming around, with good balance running and passing. Purdue never had a chance against them last week. Defensively, they match up well with Penn St, since they aren't very dynamic in the passing game(Morelli again). MSU has stopped the run in home games, and that's Penn St's bread and butter. I just think getting a very good offense +a FG against a team that might struggle with their own offense is a very nice proposition. Also remember that a very subpar MSU team playing in John L Smith's swan song should have beaten Penn St last year in Happy Valley.
2. @Indiana +2 v Purdue: A rivalry game, in that the two teams come from the same state. It really isn't much of a rivalry because Purdue has been pretty much slapping IU around for the past 10 years, or as long as Joe Tiller has been there. Well, having said that, this is probably the best shot IU has had since Randle El left the building, and they really need this game to meet their goal of playing in a bowl game to honor the memory of meathead Terry Hoeppner. It's also a pretty good matchup for them, because IU is really a completely different team at home. Their defense is more aggressive, and the passing game almost always churns out some yards, especially against a pedestrian stop unit like Purdue's. Purdue already has 7 wins, so they are safe as far as bowl games go. There is definitely an emotional edge for Indiana here.
3. Tulsa -15 @Army: Once again, I must ask: Why is so much deference given to the service academies(especially Army) when it comes to setting lines? I used to like to take Army as a dog, since I held this incorrect assumption that discipline and hard work overcome a stunning lack of talent, but obviously, I was wrong. Army has been outgained by every opponent they have played this year, and in most cases it's by more than 200 yards. They are averaging 250 total yards on offense, and they obviously struggle to stop good offenses, which Tulsa is definitely one. There is almost no chance that they can hang with Tulsa on the scoreboard unless there is an inordinate amount of turnovers or if Tulsa just decides to suit up the clinical psychology department. 15 is a lot, but come on.
4. Ohio St -4 @Michigan: Ohio St, of course, is coming off their shit game for this year, but a beautiful one from any Illini homer's vantage point. As a result of that, much discussion has taken place about whether or not OSU's defense is that good in the first place. I tend to think it is, they just ran into an offense that they didn't match up well with. This week, they match up really well with an offense that is banged up at QB and RB. I think it's asking a lot of Michigan to expect to put up points on this OSU defense with a half speed MIke Hart and a hurting Chad Henne, though I do feel that if Henne can get the ball downfield, OSU's secondary is vulnerable. I also think that Todd Boeckman and OSU's OL are a lot better than they showed last week, and Tressel definitely has a Grand Canyon of a coaching advantage here. Expect some steely resolve from the Buckeyes this week. As for the rarity of Michigan as a home dog, the last time OSU came into Ann Arbor they were favored, and they covered, so no fear there.
5. New Mexico +15 @Utah: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a total dick. Last week, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn, when speaking to a group of students at an on campus event, jokingly guaranteed that the Cowboys would beat Utah in Salt Lake City last week. Not a good idea, since Utah won 50-0. But Whittingham called for a fake punt when Utah was up 43-0. When asked about it, he made a smarmy remark about coaches guaranteeing victories, and people being held accountable for their actions, etc. Hey asshole, he was talking to a group of students on his campus. Get over yourself. This punk has been a coach for 2 years, Joe Glenn has been one for 20, and he thinks it's up to him to teach a lesson. What a complete jackass. Total dick move...I have a new least favorite coach, and it's good timing too, since it looks like Tuberville might be bolting from Auburn(A&M when coach Fran gets launched) and Carr might be retiring. Anyway, I have a rule to always take more than 2 TDs when a good team is getting the points. New Mexico hasn't been good lately, but they are still 7-3, same as Utah. Also, QB Brian Johnson has been on a tear lately, but he has not been pressured at all, New Mexico, with their oddball 3-3-5 scheme probably will be able to put pressure on them. It's unlikely to expect Utah to dominate yet again, especially since so much attention has been given to the fiasco from last week. If this game was being played a month ago, the spread would probably be around 5 or 6. Lots of value with a Lobo team that can move the ball.
6. @Washington St -3 V Oregon St: This game opened at WAZZOU -1, but unfortunately, that wacko tout Dr Bob is on Washington St, so the line moved all the way to three. It probably won't matter anyway, but it's still frustrating. Oregon St has a nice team, especially defensively, but this is a bad matchup for them. What Washington St does well(throw the ball at home) is precisely what Oregon St does poorly(stop the pass on the road). Washington St might as well not even try running the ball, because they won't be able to, since the Beavs stop everyone on the ground. Like I said, it probably won't matter, though I would never count out a possible brain cramp by resident village idiot Bill Doba. On offense, Oregon St is now starting someone named Lyle Moevao, and in addition to not being able to pronounce his name, I can't for the life of me tell why the Beaver coaching staff thinks he is a D-1 QB. Sean Canfield, a walking turnover himself, is now hurt, and that's too bad, because he was coming around. This Moevao guy, different story. 1 TD, 4 picks, and against Washington, who previously had been absolutely torched, he went 12/24 for 100 yards...you guessed it, a "west coast" type of attack. Since OSU is likely to give up some points here, this guy is going to have to show up. I'm guessing he'll show up, but hs teammates will wish he hadn't.
7. Iowa St +26 1/2 @Kansas: Hey, I know that Kansas is the end all be all, perhaps the most efficient, unselfish bunch of brianiacs ever assembled on a college campus, but there's no way Iowa St should be getting this many points. First off, Kansas is in a supreme look ahead situation with Mizzou on deck. They are unlikely to bring out all the stops here as they probably will be saving things for the biggest game in school history next week. Also, if you look at Iowa St, what have they done to be considered such a shit outfit? They just beat two decent squads back to back in Kansas St and Colorado, they outgained Missouri on the road, hung with Oklahoma in a game that was contested until the final minutes, and outgained 6 or their 12 opponents this year. I guess everyone is still looking at that 56-3 thrashing they took from Texas in a game that every possible thing went against them. Maybe Kansas comes out and smokes them, but if they do, my hat is definitely off to them, because this is about as inconvenient a spot you can come across.
8. Pittsburgh +12 1/2 @Rutgers: Of course, all disclaimers apply with the whole Wanny doesn't know what he's doing thing, his mustache looks terrible, etc, but this isn't a bad matchup for Pitt. They have been able to stop the run consistently this year, so Ray Rice probably won't run all over them, and Mike Teel might not play, leaving some scattershot wildman named Jabu Lovelace as the starter. Even if Teel plays, he has really cooled off and has been accident prone lately. Pitt has a nice running game, and their QB has been ok. This season for Rutgers has been one of those in which things just seem to go wrong for them. Generally, with the talent they have, they should be able to hammer Pitt, but this year, they just haven't put it together.
9. @South Florida -8 V Louisville: Not a good matchup for Louisville coming off a tough luck loss in Morgantown. This team has been so schitzophrenic that I highly doubt that they can patch together two solid performances back to back. This type of attack has been giving Louisville fits, and the fast South Florida defense is one that can force Brohm into some mistakes. The last time Louisville went to Tampa, they were throttled, and they had a huge talent advantage in that one. This time they don't. I think they'll struggle big time this week.
10. LSU -18 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a joke. They've got a couple decent players, but if LSU shows up at all, this should be a laugher from the word go. Ole Miss was run all over the field by Northwestern St last week, and they can't stop a soul on defense, regardless if they're at home or on the road. LSU is due to administer an in conference ass kicking, as their offense has picked it up over the past several weeks. It's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not the Rebs get shut out. Some talking heads are making noise this week that LSU needs to have it's head on a swivel this week, but I'm not buying it. This one looks like 44-7 to me.
11. @Kansas St +7 v Missouri: You're looking at the #1 publicly favored game of the week. I of course, being the contrarian, am on the other side. K St has spent the last two weeks embarrasing themselves, first losing to Iowa St(despite running into some tough luck) then getting absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska. I happen to think that the Nebraska game is forgivable, because there was a lot of negative energy that the Cornhuskers were getting off their chest, and Joe Ganz looks to be the real deal. Having said that, this team is proud team, and they will be chomping at the bit to get after the new golden boys of the public. Don't forget that earlier this season, K St put together some nice efforts, including a thorough beating of Texas in Austin. Missouri is entirely capable of a weak offensive performance here, as K St has a tendency to pin their ears back at home, and I think the Missou D, who has been successfully hidden somehow this year, might have a problem with the Jordy Nelson/Josh Freeman combo. As with Kansas, this is a supreme lookahead spot. Not sure if Pinkel can pull off a solid performance here.
12. @Texas Tech +8 1/2 v Oklahoma: The Sooners have not been all that impressive on the road. They got beat up at Colorado in their only loss, had a taffy pull with Iowa St a few weks ago, and gave up a load of passing yards to Tulsa early in the year. Now enter Texas Tech. OU is giving up 8.2 ypa in the passing game on the road, and this will be by far the best passing attack they have faced, not that it's a foreign concept since the Red Raiders are in their division and they play them every year. Texas Tech has done ok defensively at home, so it might not be as high scoring a game as we are all used to in TT games. I'd rather have a few more points, since Tech gives up garbage TDs a lot, but this shapes up as a dangerous spot for OU.
Others......Wake is favored at home(-6) against an improving NC State team. Jim Grobe also won't have the distinct coaching advantage against O'Brien that he normally enjoys week to week...Ga Tech has had all kinds of trouble covering as a favorite this year, and they're laying DD to a deent Tar Heel squad(10)...I think BC has a bounce back game catching 8 1/2 against an "increasingly due for a shit effort" Clemson team. Matt Flynn is due for a big game, especially since people are starting to say that Clemson's QB Cullen Harper might be the best QB in the conference....I know we all like Navy, but they have the worst defense in the country. Consider that they have given up 62(!!!) points to North Texas, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Notre Dame(!!!!!!!), 45 to Pitt, 44 to Wake and 43 to Duke this year. Any team with a defense that bad should never be a 16 point favorite aganst any team with a pulse. NIU barely qualifies as having a pulse. They'll probably never stop Navy all day, but I still have to take a chance that they can come within 16, since Navy would probably have to put up 59 to cover it. Considering NIU gave up 800+ yards to Toledo a couple weeks ago, I guess it could go either way, then huh???....I also have a hunch that Kentucky(+8 1/2) gives Georgia a tough game, but I wonder when the last time was that UK was getting under 10 in Athens? Georgia is playing their third consecutive home game. It's tough to get up in that scenario, and it's an early game, I believe.....I also have a hunch that Wshington rises up and puts together a nice performance at home against Cal. Longshore is close to getting benched, as this is looking more and more like a lost season for the Bears. Jale Locker is out, but backup QB Bonnell has played a lot, and they probably won't miss much with him back there....That's it for the week. Hope everyone does well
I feel compelled to state this again, though: I really like that Thursday night ESPN crew, especially the broadcasters. Chris Fowler is a solid PBP guy who doesn't get in the way with his own opinions, and if he offers one, it's usually astute. Craig James and Doug Flutie are very likable, and Erin Andrews is there to look at. (I said look at, not listen to). Speaking of Flutie, I thought he was great last night. Generally, in an analyst, you want someone who can give you insight you didn't already have, or point out things you haven't noticed. Granted, not an easy task, but he did it last night. In the defining drive of the game late in the 4th quarter for Arizona, Tuitama tripped over his center, resulting in a fumble when he botched the handoff to the running back. Oregon recovered, and it looked like they were on the way to tying the game, a crippling mistake by Arizona. Generally, when there's a fumble, I might not mentally turn the page because it might have looked like the runner was down or whatever, so you consider the possibility of replay, but in this case, it never occurred to me that a replay might be needed until Flutie remarked that Arizona might want to look for a review since Tuitama's knee might have been down before he handed the ball off. Sure enough, it was. Then, in the delay during which the officials were trying to figure out where to spot the ball, Flutie said, "I don't know what the problem is here, the ball should be spotted on the 38 1/2 yard line." They hadn't even shown the replay yet. When the replay came on, Tuitama's knee clearly was down at the 36, so I thought to myself that the bal should be spotted there. However, just as I was thinking that, Flutie says, "Now remember(dumbass), the ball should be spotted where the ball is, not where his knee touches". DUH. Because there was so much emphasis on looking at the timing of his knee touching, I completely forgot to notice that he was stretching another yard or 2 when reaching to hand it off. Nice work by Flutie there. With as much complaining and hand wringing I do about Mike Patrick, All NFL Fox analysts other than Aikman and that abomination that makes Monday Nights an excruciating, torturesome experience complete with burning sensation, we should point out when a telecast is downright delightful. One other quick note, now that A Rod has re-signed with the Yankees and Barry Bonds has been indicted, we can all pretty much forget about listening to any National sports talk radio for the next month. Unless of course you strive to be bored out of your mind.
Last week was another waste of time, 5-5, right up there with a coin flip. It would have been better if some live home dogs could have shown up instead of completely shitting the bed and themselves. South Carolina never stopped Florida once. Not once. They fumbled the snap on the first play from scrimmage. What a bunch of fags. Oklahoma St was completely dumbfounded by the cosmic greatness that is the Kansas offense, run by the genius man/walrus Mark Mangino. Maybe some of these dogs will fare better this week. Season numbers: 66-53. 55.5%. Need a good week.
1. @Michigan St +3 v Penn State: Well, another week, another dissertation about how Anthony Morelli can't win a game for you on the road. Obviously, Penn State is good defensively, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. Even last week against Temple, Penn St gave up almost 200 yards in the first half. MSU's offense is really coming around, with good balance running and passing. Purdue never had a chance against them last week. Defensively, they match up well with Penn St, since they aren't very dynamic in the passing game(Morelli again). MSU has stopped the run in home games, and that's Penn St's bread and butter. I just think getting a very good offense +a FG against a team that might struggle with their own offense is a very nice proposition. Also remember that a very subpar MSU team playing in John L Smith's swan song should have beaten Penn St last year in Happy Valley.
2. @Indiana +2 v Purdue: A rivalry game, in that the two teams come from the same state. It really isn't much of a rivalry because Purdue has been pretty much slapping IU around for the past 10 years, or as long as Joe Tiller has been there. Well, having said that, this is probably the best shot IU has had since Randle El left the building, and they really need this game to meet their goal of playing in a bowl game to honor the memory of meathead Terry Hoeppner. It's also a pretty good matchup for them, because IU is really a completely different team at home. Their defense is more aggressive, and the passing game almost always churns out some yards, especially against a pedestrian stop unit like Purdue's. Purdue already has 7 wins, so they are safe as far as bowl games go. There is definitely an emotional edge for Indiana here.
3. Tulsa -15 @Army: Once again, I must ask: Why is so much deference given to the service academies(especially Army) when it comes to setting lines? I used to like to take Army as a dog, since I held this incorrect assumption that discipline and hard work overcome a stunning lack of talent, but obviously, I was wrong. Army has been outgained by every opponent they have played this year, and in most cases it's by more than 200 yards. They are averaging 250 total yards on offense, and they obviously struggle to stop good offenses, which Tulsa is definitely one. There is almost no chance that they can hang with Tulsa on the scoreboard unless there is an inordinate amount of turnovers or if Tulsa just decides to suit up the clinical psychology department. 15 is a lot, but come on.
4. Ohio St -4 @Michigan: Ohio St, of course, is coming off their shit game for this year, but a beautiful one from any Illini homer's vantage point. As a result of that, much discussion has taken place about whether or not OSU's defense is that good in the first place. I tend to think it is, they just ran into an offense that they didn't match up well with. This week, they match up really well with an offense that is banged up at QB and RB. I think it's asking a lot of Michigan to expect to put up points on this OSU defense with a half speed MIke Hart and a hurting Chad Henne, though I do feel that if Henne can get the ball downfield, OSU's secondary is vulnerable. I also think that Todd Boeckman and OSU's OL are a lot better than they showed last week, and Tressel definitely has a Grand Canyon of a coaching advantage here. Expect some steely resolve from the Buckeyes this week. As for the rarity of Michigan as a home dog, the last time OSU came into Ann Arbor they were favored, and they covered, so no fear there.
5. New Mexico +15 @Utah: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a total dick. Last week, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn, when speaking to a group of students at an on campus event, jokingly guaranteed that the Cowboys would beat Utah in Salt Lake City last week. Not a good idea, since Utah won 50-0. But Whittingham called for a fake punt when Utah was up 43-0. When asked about it, he made a smarmy remark about coaches guaranteeing victories, and people being held accountable for their actions, etc. Hey asshole, he was talking to a group of students on his campus. Get over yourself. This punk has been a coach for 2 years, Joe Glenn has been one for 20, and he thinks it's up to him to teach a lesson. What a complete jackass. Total dick move...I have a new least favorite coach, and it's good timing too, since it looks like Tuberville might be bolting from Auburn(A&M when coach Fran gets launched) and Carr might be retiring. Anyway, I have a rule to always take more than 2 TDs when a good team is getting the points. New Mexico hasn't been good lately, but they are still 7-3, same as Utah. Also, QB Brian Johnson has been on a tear lately, but he has not been pressured at all, New Mexico, with their oddball 3-3-5 scheme probably will be able to put pressure on them. It's unlikely to expect Utah to dominate yet again, especially since so much attention has been given to the fiasco from last week. If this game was being played a month ago, the spread would probably be around 5 or 6. Lots of value with a Lobo team that can move the ball.
6. @Washington St -3 V Oregon St: This game opened at WAZZOU -1, but unfortunately, that wacko tout Dr Bob is on Washington St, so the line moved all the way to three. It probably won't matter anyway, but it's still frustrating. Oregon St has a nice team, especially defensively, but this is a bad matchup for them. What Washington St does well(throw the ball at home) is precisely what Oregon St does poorly(stop the pass on the road). Washington St might as well not even try running the ball, because they won't be able to, since the Beavs stop everyone on the ground. Like I said, it probably won't matter, though I would never count out a possible brain cramp by resident village idiot Bill Doba. On offense, Oregon St is now starting someone named Lyle Moevao, and in addition to not being able to pronounce his name, I can't for the life of me tell why the Beaver coaching staff thinks he is a D-1 QB. Sean Canfield, a walking turnover himself, is now hurt, and that's too bad, because he was coming around. This Moevao guy, different story. 1 TD, 4 picks, and against Washington, who previously had been absolutely torched, he went 12/24 for 100 yards...you guessed it, a "west coast" type of attack. Since OSU is likely to give up some points here, this guy is going to have to show up. I'm guessing he'll show up, but hs teammates will wish he hadn't.
7. Iowa St +26 1/2 @Kansas: Hey, I know that Kansas is the end all be all, perhaps the most efficient, unselfish bunch of brianiacs ever assembled on a college campus, but there's no way Iowa St should be getting this many points. First off, Kansas is in a supreme look ahead situation with Mizzou on deck. They are unlikely to bring out all the stops here as they probably will be saving things for the biggest game in school history next week. Also, if you look at Iowa St, what have they done to be considered such a shit outfit? They just beat two decent squads back to back in Kansas St and Colorado, they outgained Missouri on the road, hung with Oklahoma in a game that was contested until the final minutes, and outgained 6 or their 12 opponents this year. I guess everyone is still looking at that 56-3 thrashing they took from Texas in a game that every possible thing went against them. Maybe Kansas comes out and smokes them, but if they do, my hat is definitely off to them, because this is about as inconvenient a spot you can come across.
8. Pittsburgh +12 1/2 @Rutgers: Of course, all disclaimers apply with the whole Wanny doesn't know what he's doing thing, his mustache looks terrible, etc, but this isn't a bad matchup for Pitt. They have been able to stop the run consistently this year, so Ray Rice probably won't run all over them, and Mike Teel might not play, leaving some scattershot wildman named Jabu Lovelace as the starter. Even if Teel plays, he has really cooled off and has been accident prone lately. Pitt has a nice running game, and their QB has been ok. This season for Rutgers has been one of those in which things just seem to go wrong for them. Generally, with the talent they have, they should be able to hammer Pitt, but this year, they just haven't put it together.
9. @South Florida -8 V Louisville: Not a good matchup for Louisville coming off a tough luck loss in Morgantown. This team has been so schitzophrenic that I highly doubt that they can patch together two solid performances back to back. This type of attack has been giving Louisville fits, and the fast South Florida defense is one that can force Brohm into some mistakes. The last time Louisville went to Tampa, they were throttled, and they had a huge talent advantage in that one. This time they don't. I think they'll struggle big time this week.
10. LSU -18 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a joke. They've got a couple decent players, but if LSU shows up at all, this should be a laugher from the word go. Ole Miss was run all over the field by Northwestern St last week, and they can't stop a soul on defense, regardless if they're at home or on the road. LSU is due to administer an in conference ass kicking, as their offense has picked it up over the past several weeks. It's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not the Rebs get shut out. Some talking heads are making noise this week that LSU needs to have it's head on a swivel this week, but I'm not buying it. This one looks like 44-7 to me.
11. @Kansas St +7 v Missouri: You're looking at the #1 publicly favored game of the week. I of course, being the contrarian, am on the other side. K St has spent the last two weeks embarrasing themselves, first losing to Iowa St(despite running into some tough luck) then getting absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska. I happen to think that the Nebraska game is forgivable, because there was a lot of negative energy that the Cornhuskers were getting off their chest, and Joe Ganz looks to be the real deal. Having said that, this team is proud team, and they will be chomping at the bit to get after the new golden boys of the public. Don't forget that earlier this season, K St put together some nice efforts, including a thorough beating of Texas in Austin. Missouri is entirely capable of a weak offensive performance here, as K St has a tendency to pin their ears back at home, and I think the Missou D, who has been successfully hidden somehow this year, might have a problem with the Jordy Nelson/Josh Freeman combo. As with Kansas, this is a supreme lookahead spot. Not sure if Pinkel can pull off a solid performance here.
12. @Texas Tech +8 1/2 v Oklahoma: The Sooners have not been all that impressive on the road. They got beat up at Colorado in their only loss, had a taffy pull with Iowa St a few weks ago, and gave up a load of passing yards to Tulsa early in the year. Now enter Texas Tech. OU is giving up 8.2 ypa in the passing game on the road, and this will be by far the best passing attack they have faced, not that it's a foreign concept since the Red Raiders are in their division and they play them every year. Texas Tech has done ok defensively at home, so it might not be as high scoring a game as we are all used to in TT games. I'd rather have a few more points, since Tech gives up garbage TDs a lot, but this shapes up as a dangerous spot for OU.
Others......Wake is favored at home(-6) against an improving NC State team. Jim Grobe also won't have the distinct coaching advantage against O'Brien that he normally enjoys week to week...Ga Tech has had all kinds of trouble covering as a favorite this year, and they're laying DD to a deent Tar Heel squad(10)...I think BC has a bounce back game catching 8 1/2 against an "increasingly due for a shit effort" Clemson team. Matt Flynn is due for a big game, especially since people are starting to say that Clemson's QB Cullen Harper might be the best QB in the conference....I know we all like Navy, but they have the worst defense in the country. Consider that they have given up 62(!!!) points to North Texas, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Notre Dame(!!!!!!!), 45 to Pitt, 44 to Wake and 43 to Duke this year. Any team with a defense that bad should never be a 16 point favorite aganst any team with a pulse. NIU barely qualifies as having a pulse. They'll probably never stop Navy all day, but I still have to take a chance that they can come within 16, since Navy would probably have to put up 59 to cover it. Considering NIU gave up 800+ yards to Toledo a couple weeks ago, I guess it could go either way, then huh???....I also have a hunch that Kentucky(+8 1/2) gives Georgia a tough game, but I wonder when the last time was that UK was getting under 10 in Athens? Georgia is playing their third consecutive home game. It's tough to get up in that scenario, and it's an early game, I believe.....I also have a hunch that Wshington rises up and puts together a nice performance at home against Cal. Longshore is close to getting benched, as this is looking more and more like a lost season for the Bears. Jale Locker is out, but backup QB Bonnell has played a lot, and they probably won't miss much with him back there....That's it for the week. Hope everyone does well
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