College Football Madcapper: September 2009

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Thoughts on Hawaii/LaTech.

Things we should have known:

A team that was physically slapped around by Navy's weakling defense would be able to run it at will on Hawaii.

A team that can't cover anyone and had registered a grand total of 2 sacks would pressure the
top rated passing game in the country on just about every down and at the same time cover 7 receivers at once like a blanket.

Hawaii would refuse to show up and collectively fall into the fetal position immediately after performing the Haka.

The Heisman trophy should be renamed after Daniel Porter.

The Patriots should fire Belichick and immediately hire his mentor Derek Dooley.

Greg McMackin is a drooling doofus.

Had I known all that, I'd still probably figure that 6 points was too much for La tech to cover in this game.

Week 5 Weeknight Musings

Hawaii +5 1/2 @Louisiana Tech: Generally this is an interesting week because some teams don't venture on the road until they reach conference play, and the results from their cozy home appearances can be taken with a grain of salt. In this case, Hawaii has been living on the road, so we can look with full confidence at their results. I'd even venture to say that there is risk in backing Hawaii here because of their travel situation. This has to be the longest road trip made by any team in the country that's made somewhat regularly. However, having said that, the difference between these teams looks substantial in my opinion. Hawaii is the number 1 pass efficiency offense in the country, and ranks #1 in total offense as well, and it isn't even all that close, as they average a half yard more per play than anyone else. They've done it against UNLV and Washington St, both on the road. Neither is a heavyweight, but WAZZOu especially isn't as bad as last year, despite the likely end result of their record. la Tech has been and remains a work in process in pass defense. I think they'll struggle to stop Greg Salas the WR for the "bows, and they'll likely have to outscore Hawaii in order to win this. I think the wrong team is favored here, and the points have gotten significant. I'll take the 5 1/2.

More to come later....

Friday, September 25, 2009

Week 4 Musings

So as I mentioned, last week was another joke.It got to the point in the middle of the day Saturday where I was just expecting the teams I bet on to rapid fire shit the bed, and rapid fire shit the bed they did. 2-10 for the week, and I have to take liberties on the Cal game to even get to that number. I think everyone got that game at 13 1/2, and I got it at that number immediately after I sent the musings out, so it really should have been stated that way. If you find that questionable, here's a bony middle finger for you..ok? For the year, the record stands at 12-23, with a 5-19 stretch over the past 2 weeks. I realize that everyone has bad weeks, but this has been some pretty ham-fisted handicapping. But no worries!! I've got about 10-12 darts that I'll blindly fire limp-wristedly at the dartbord this week. Check back on Sunday morning for some laughs!!

I've found Notre Dame to be a pretty interesting case this year. I must admit that I am head over heels for their offense, and have even found myself rooting for them in the games I've watched. Of course, my money has been on them in 2 of the 3 weeks, but if you look back in previous editions of this collection of incoherence, you'll remember some strong words of intolerance toward Charlie Weis and his whale-like existence. So many people are SO anti-Notre Dame, oftentimes with no semblance of reason, that the contrarian in me wants to see these people suffer. At this point, the question is whether or not Weis can keep his job if they have any more hiccups after the Michigan loss. The conventional wisdom is that if they lose another game besides the USC game, Weis will have to go. If they can't get Brian Kelly from Cincinnati, I really think that would be a mistake. They've had a ton of bad breaks over the past couple of years, and should still be unbeaten if not for the cornholing they got from the Big Ten ref/umpire/replay combo against Michigan. Now the uncoverable Michael Floyd is out for the year, which will make things tough for them again. However, they'll most likely be in a BCS game anyway this year, and all of the important pieces will be back again next year. My point is this: If they fire Weis just to make a point, they might be jeopardizing what could be an even better team next year. A guy like Brian Kelly could take it and run with it, but if they get shut out of their top choice again and settle for scraps, the future with Weis would be better than the future with someone else.

South Carolina had a nice game last night, and I actually cashed a ticket when the line moved to a point where I could cheaply get 4 1/2. Confidence rising. Now if Missouri can keep it's end of the bargain tonight, we'll finally have a positive start to the week. Here's the rest. In some of these you may need to buy a half point.

2. Southern Miss +14 @ Kansas: Kansas has looked very good so far this year, but this will be the first time that they face a team that has the potential to play to their level on both sides of the ball, and in both phases on offense. Southern Miss is on some people's shit list because they allowed Virginia to hang with them and had to come back late due to early turnovers to pull it out, but the score was deceiving, as was the score of their week 2 game against UCF in which they completely dominated but only won by 7 in a rainstorm. Kansas is unbeaten, and their offense looks very good, but they haven't really played anyone, and Duke actually played them much closer than the score looked like last week. The Devils passed for 300 yards with rotating QBs and piled up almost 400 for the game. It's a step up in class for the Jayhawks here, and I have a feeling that So Miss WR DeAndre Brown, will make his presence felt here. He's a top 5 receiver in the country but is just now rounding back into shape after his gruesome broken leg injury in their bowl game against Troy last year. I think 14 is just too much to lay here.

3. Fresno St +17 @Cincinnati: The Bearcats have looked extremely good so far this year, blowing out Rutgers on the road, winning a tough test at Oregon St and completely destroying whatever patsy they played in week 2. However, they haven't really played anyone that can expose their weakness, which is pass defense. It's somewhat debateable if the Fresno QB Coburn is the guy to do it, but he's thrown effectively on Boise and at Wisconsin in a tough environment, so I think he'll have success here. That's assuming that Ryan Matthews doesn't bust a couple in this game, which is certainly possible for him against any defense. Here is another example of Pat Hill being able to motivate his team to take on a ranked BCS squad for respect. In this spot they've done well in the past, and they really should have beaten Wisconsin in week 2, having played them to a standstill. I really like Cincy's offense, but I don't know if the total package is 17 points better than Wisconsin. Fresno has too many athletes on offense to be shut down by this defense, and Fresno's problems on defense have been stopping the run, not the pass, and Cincy is not a running team. Can Cincy continue to play perfect ball every single week? I'm guessing no, and to blow out Fresno, they'll have to. Lots of line value here.

4. @BC -1 v Wake Forest: I'm still kicking myself for leaving Clemson out of the musings last week. It was pretty obvious that BC was going to have problems in that game offensively, but 55 total yards over 4 quarters??? Wow. So how in the hell can I risk my hard earned money on a team so woefully inept on offense? Good question. Here's the answer: It's true that BC had a horrific showing last week. Think about it though. They played a top notch defense in a rainstorm which delayed the game 3 times. Their QB couldn't even hold on to the ball, and Clemson made sure they stopped the run. It was just a long day. What we can't forget however, is that BC itself is sporting the nations top ranked defense in yards per play. It's true that they have not faced a juggernaut on offense as of yet, but they aren't facing one this week either in Wake. BC has some line girth and some talent at RB, so I can see them moving the ball a bit on Wake's 79th ranked run D. There is no doubt that BC will have a big edge when their defense is on the field. With this offense, I would have a hard time laying any significant points, but when all they have to do is win, I think they can get it done against a pedestrian outfit on both sides of the ball at home when their defense is this solid.

5. Cal -5 1/2 @Oregon: Oregon burned me last week, but it was more about Utah's ineptness than Oregon actually accomplishing anything. They remain one of the worst passing offenses in the country, and Cal is certainly capapble of stopping their run game, which frankly hasn't been all that impressive either, ranked only 59th in the country. There certainly is some danger in backing Cal here, since they have a tough look ahead situation with USC on deck, but the difference in these teams is profound. Cal has beaten Oregon rather comfortably three years in a row, and this Oregon squad is not nearly as good as the previous three. I also think Chip Kelly is in a bad spot matching wits with the Cal staff. It will take a huge effort from Oregon combined with a total shit the bed effort from Cal for this to be anything other than a comfortable win for the Bears.

6. Idaho +17 @Northern Illinois: NIU has been the recipient of some major line love here as a result of their win at Purdue, which was definitely legit and impressive. However, they do not appear to me to be a team that is capable of blowing people out yet. Idaho quietly has looked pretty good this year, especially considering their effort against Washington in which they outgained the Huskies. They also dominated San Diego St and won on the road at New Mexico St, so they have proven themselves worthy of being taken off the "Shit teams I Will Never Bet On" list. Looking at these two teams on paper, they really aren't that distinguishable from each other, as both are in the middle of the pack statistically, and I can actually forsee a couple phases where Idaho has an edge. 17 points is defintitely too much....I actually would give Idaho about 40% chance of pulling off the outright win, especially with NIU being so proud of themselves. I can't foresee a scenario where Idaho gets NIU's best effort. I mean, it's going to be tough for Jerry Kill , as intimidating as he must be, to put the fear of God in his kids over Idaho.

7. TCU +3 @Clemson: Here is TCU's chance to prove to everyone that they belong in the BCS picture. They toyed with Virginia at Virginia a couple weeks ago, finally letting in a couple garbage scores at the end after totally dominating the Hoos for 3 quarters, but now is a chance for the Frogs to really make people stand up and take notice. In this ballgame, we have 2 defenses who appear to be stout. However, it really looks to me like Clemson is going to have all kinds of trouble putting together any offense against TCU. It looks like their starting LT is out, and that is not a good thing when you are about to line up aganst Jerry Hughes and the TCU front 7. They have struggled to protect Kyle Parker and have not gotten the running game going. On the flip side, TCu's offense has been ok, as Andy Dalton is a 3rd year starter and they have some ability to move the ball, as they did against a decent defense in Virginia. I also think there is a solid edge in the coaching department for TCU. At the end of the day, I don;t see where Clemson is going to be able to move the ball much on offense, and if TCU can avoid turnovers and special teams big plays, they look to me to be the better team.

8. Texas Tech +1 @Houston: I don't know that Houston has the ability to notch a huge win over a highly ranked foe, then come back the following week and beat another Big 12 heavy as a favorite in their next game. I don't know about everyone else, but I thought Texas Tech looked pretty good outgaining a Texas team that was supposed to rip their collective heads off in payback for the loss in Lubbock last year. Taylor Potts looked good throwing for 400+ and their defense was more than competent in stopping the Texas running game(or whatever they call it) and Colt McCoy's scrambling chaos. Now they go to Houston, who over the years has proven they can't play defense. I just don't buy Houston as a favorite in this spot, and I think Tech's defense is comparatively better than Houston's, and I think there will be some element of Houston having spent the past two weeks congratualting themselves on the Oklahoma St win.

9. Louisville +14 @Utah: Here's another example of a game where the two teams seem pretty evenly matched. I was thoroughly unimpressed by Utah in their game at Oregon. Their QB is inaccurate and not particularly heady. Their defense looked fair at best. They haven't been able to dispose of weaker teams than Louisville(SJSU and Utah St) by any more than about this number. Louisville is in a bit of a tough spot here coming off the painful loss to Kentucky in a rivalry game and having to travel across the country, but I don't see much of a difference in these teams. Louisville has some nice players on offense including RB Victor Anderson, and their QB Burke showed improvement in the Kentucky game. I think Kentucky is a significantly better team than Utah, and Louisville played them to a standstill. 14 is too many points here.

10 @Mississippi St +13 v LSU: I can only guess that this line will go up by gametime, so I think you can get 13. LSU is in a very tough spot here on the schedule as they have a trip to Georgia and a home date with Florida on deck. Offensively, they have not been very good, and should already be saddled with a loss if Washington didn't completely forget to cover receivers on two free TDs in the second half of that game. MSU has a much more competent coah on board now in Dan Mullenthan the previous dude, and they have already shown some signs, as they dismantled Vandy last week on the road. I think they can play good enough defense to stay close in this one, and the skill guys in place, Dixon, Ducre and QB Tyson Lee all had some success in Death Valley last year in a night game. I doubt they can pull off the outright win, and ideally I'd like 14, but crazier things have happened.

11. Iowa +10 @ Penn St: Yes, it's a white out, and all these nuts in Happy Valley will be drunk, but you ned some actual eveidence on the field to justify laying 10 to a well coached legitimately good team. Penn St has played absolutely nobody so far this year, and despite that, they have had a rough time running the ball. Iowa will certainly be the best defensive squad they have played yet, so I would expect them to struggle running it, especially since no receivers have seperated themselves from the pack as any kind of threat that Iowa needs to be worried about. Defensively, they have been good, but both of their good linebackers(Bowman and Lee) are hurting, and Lee probably won't play. Iowa is going to have a tough time scoring on them anyway, but I think they are too good a team to get double digits, especially when Penn St hasn't really proven anything. Historically, Ferentz is 6-2 against the Nits to boot.

Others: I like Miami a lot this week. It's a tough jaunt up to Blacksburg but did you know that Va Tech is 111th against the run so far this year? Throw in the fact that they can't throw the ball and I think Miami has a great chance to win. They are certainly due for a clunker, so I am not ready to fully recommend them as a 3 point favorite in this spot.....I think Colorado St can stay within the 17 at BYU. BYU certainly will have a hangover from the huge disappointment f last week(notice a lot of failed musings here), and Colorado St can throw the ball a bit, which is something BYu has struggled with. I can see a scenario where BYU has to outscore them late.....I also think Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) bounces back at home and handles North Carolina. Carolina is too shitty of a team to be undefeated after week 4. Tech has a revenge angle on them as well, and their main weakness(pass defense) shouldn't be too threatened in this one....Illinois will probably lay an egg and set the stage for a collapse. Hopefully not though....I don't think ECU has the offense to be favored over a competent defensive team like UCF by double digits. UCF has no offense either, but if they catch a couple breaks, ECU could lose that one outright.....I also think Kentucky is much better than they showed last week against Louisville, and Florida just doesn't appear to be as explosive without Harvin and Louis Murphy. I thought it was telling when they had to run Tebow so often in that Tennessee game. Kentucky has a shot to hang with them in this one catching 22.....I also have a hunch on Purdue +7 against Notre Dame. ND's defense hasn't been that great, so Purdue has a chance to be successful, they'll be fired up off the NIU debacle, and ND is really banged up on offense, with Floyd out, Claussen hobbling and Armando Allen questionable. It'll be asking a lot for them to blow out Purdue in this spot at only about 75%. Losing Floyd was a very big deal, nd Purdue's big strength on defense is their secondary.

That's it for this week. Let's hope for a turnaround.

Week 4 weeknight musings

Yeah, if you give a shit anymore, I'll throw out some more of this drivel. Anybody that can suck ass as bad as I did last week definitely has a lot of nerve getting up in the morning, let alone spewing more of the same sewage as the previous two weeks. I'll recap in the full complement that you'll see tomorrow. As for tonight's game, I originally liked Ole Miss at such a short number, but I'm going to lay off. The numbers actually point to a pretty close game, especially in Columbia, and I think South Carolina is improving a bit, having found a couple playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Throw in the fact that this team beat Ole Miss in Oxford last year, outgaining them in the process, and expecting Ole Miss to walk in there and win strictly because they are ranked #4 and had a nice year last year is somewhat misguided. Having said that, the Cocks haven't beaten a top 5 team in something like 100 years, so the assumption would be that they'll find a way to botch this opportunity as well. That being the case, a field goal is not enough value for me here. I'd lean in that direction in the event a gun was pointed at my head.

Friday:

Missouri -7 @Nevada: Yeah yeah, the pistol is cool, Colin Kaepernick is athletic, they can run it on Southern Utah, blah blah blah. I'm sick and tired of Nevada sucking against BCS programs, and I'm ready to profit from it further after cashing on their trip to South Bend in week 1. You remember week 1 right? Back when I had some semblance of a clue what in the hell I was doing? Whatever.... Their coach, Chris Ault is a knowledgeable coach, but bad breaks follow him, and he apparently isn't as good as I think he is because he keeps getting his ass kicked in these spots. They should have run all over Maryland in their bowl game last year and instead got run over themselves by a team that hadn't done it to anyone else all year. They were 120th against the pass last year, and SURPRISE they are 120th again this year. Missouri will score at will on them, especially coming off a couple of lackluster performances after steamrolling Illinois. These two teams met last year, and Mizzou won 69-17. Mizzou also has had success stopping the run, which is Nevada's bread and butter. Well, at least it's their bread and butter against shitty teams. Their bread and butter against actual good teams appears to be bending over and hoping their collective rectums remain intact. Perhaps the alternate universe will continue to exist and they'll sack up and lift a finger to provide some passing game resistance, but I highly doubt it.

More to come later if you want to set fire to your electronic cash.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Week 3 Musings

Well, there was another bad start to a week. Good Lord do I hate when that happens.....I might just stop listing the weeknight games on principle. Or maybe I'll just stop betting on Georgia Tech. My rapture toward Paul Johnson probably needs to be tempered a bit, since he presided over a team that couldn't get out of it's own way tonight. They lost 33-17, but it wasn't even that close. They didn't cover a soul all night, they couldn't pressure the quarterback and they couldn't tackle. That makes it tough. Just ugly. As was previously mentioned, last week was not good. 3-9 to lead to a year to date record of 10-13, which is the first time the musings have ever been under .500 for the year. I aim to correct that this week, but we're off to a bad start with that misguided play from tonight.

No more small talk...it's on like Donkey Kong.

2. Cal -14 @Minnesota: If a team can make Greg Paulus look competent after a 4 year layoff in his first start, what will the Cal offense do to that team. Minnesota was very lucky to beat AirForce last week,and they have not really gotten going on offense yet this year, which is mostly due to a change in offensive approach to match their new stadium. More of a gritty, west coast offense for the outdoor elements I guess. Since their offense used to be rather effective, that seems like a mistake to me. Minny will be facing what will certainly be the best defense they have faced thus far, and it goes without saying that they'll be up against superior athletes on the offensive side as well. Big struggles should be in the offing for the Gophers. There is a slight concern with the starting time, which will be 9am on the Cal body clocks, but there is too much of a talent/coaching edge for Cal here to ignore. Final note: These two teams sport the worst uniform combinations this side of Eugene, Oregon. Cal likes to go with those hideous gold jerseys and dark blue pants with the cartoonish bear claws on the shoulders. Minnesota counters with all gold pajamas. Why football players playing a violent sport insist on dressing as though they are making a trip to The Manhole on North Halsted rather than a football field is beyond me. Thankfully, Cal will have to wear white.

3. Utah +5 @Oregon: Having watched Oregon in both of their games this year, I would peg myself as mostly unimpressed with their overall squad. Against Boise, there was absolutely nothing on the offensive side of the ball that indicated anything remotely positive. They looked uninspired, disorganized, slow, and after the game, deranged. Against Purdue, on heir home field against a drop in defensive class, they looked marginally better, but by no means impressive. Purdue handed them that game with 2 defensive scores and a botched extra point. Defensively, Utah will be the best group the Ducks have faced yet, and unless Chip Kelly has suddenly figured it out, I expect more of the same. I think the guy is a complete jackass, but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to a very good ATS record as a dog. I like Utah's chances for the outright victory here.

4. @Virginia Tech -5 v Nebraska: It's true that VT was clearly outclassed in their opener with Alabama, but that wasn't all that surprising, given Bama's prowess on defense. Nebraska has looked good so far this year, and their new QB Zac Lee has actually led the charge, but this is a very tough spot. We all know how tough the Gobblers can be at home in Blacksburg, and this team went into Lincoln last year and handled the Huskers with Joe Ganz at QB. Offensively, the normally pedestrian VT attack actually looked pretty good, with Tyrod Taylor uncharacteristically converting 3rd downs at an efficient clip. This year, Nebraska travels all the way to Blacksburg in what will be Lee's first ever road start. Also, Va tech is much more explosive than they were last year on offense with the addition of two home run threats in the backfield in David Wilson and Ryan Williams, who between them rushed for almost 12 ypc on 28 carries last week against a Marshall team that many thought had a pretty good front 7.I think it is asking a heck of a lot for Zac Lee to come in and be effective in this environment, and if he isn't, I don't think there's a scenario where Nebraska can stay within a score.

5. @Baylor -10 1/2 v UCONN: I would normally declare caveat emptor in instances in which you are laying points against UCONN, but this week is a very tough spot for them. Their starting QB, Zack Frazer is injured and will not play, and their backup, who hasn't taken a snap, has been sick all week and hasn't practiced. Their third stringer is a true freshman who they plan to redshirt, so they will most likely force the backup in there. This is a long trip for UCONN, and they're facing a team that played them to a standstill early last year in Storrs. I don't have to repeat how impressed I was with Baylor's victory in week 1 at Wake. Now they are at home, and get to play in front of a crowd that will be glad to see them for once. UCONN's usually stout defense will be without their top linebacker, so look for Art Briles to expose the UCONN defense. Tough, tough spot for UCONN, especially after that rough loss on the late safety last week at home.

6. @BYU -7 v Florida St: I don't know if any of you had a chance to watch Florida St's Labor Day tilt with Miami. It was a hell of a game. However, one thing that was obvious was that Florida State showed very little interest in covering any of Miami's receivers. That does not bode well against a squad that can throw it with the precision that BYU can. Harvey Unga will also be back, so BYU now goes 3 deep at RB. Chistian Ponder looked pretty good against Miami, but that was mostly against the soft underbelly of Miami's cover none scheme, that seems to be gaining popularity in the college game now that it's run it's course of terrible coverage in the NFL. I'm not impressed with FSU's receivers, and Ponder will need a distinct advantage in that area in order to put up the passing numbers that will be needed to stay in this one.The atmosphere in Provo will be rocking, as this is their first home game this year, and the Mormon faithful will be eager to greet their returning heroes and honored guests with ear splitting screeches. You can still get this at 7 in some spots, but it's moving up. I'll probably buy it back to 7 in any case.

7. Arkansas -2 v Georgia: Surprisingly, this line has moved against public sentiment, which is 60-65% on Georgia's side. Despite having already played Oklahoma St, I would dare say that the Hogs will be the best offense the Dawgs have faced so far this year. Arkansas truly is loaded with skill position talent, and there is no doubt that Bobby Petrino knows what he is doing offensively. The bad news for Georgia is that while they have had their hands full with OSU and South Carolina the past 2 weeks, Arkansas has been laying in wait off an open date, preparing all the while. Ryan Mallett looked great in their first game, and it's not like it's his first rodeo, as he played in several games as a true frosh at Michigan in '07.Georgia gave up yards and points to South Carolina last week, and as I've mentioned, this Hog offense is much better than Spurrier's pop gun attack under the buffoonish Stephen Garcia. Georgia still hasn't figured it out on the offensive side either. If they don't score points here, they are in trouble.

8. Buffalo +4 1/2 @Central Florida: This UCF team garnered a grand total of 171 yards last week at Southern Miss. Prior to that against Samford, they racked up 282 on the way to being outgained. Buffalo appears to have found themselves a QB in Zack Maynard, who riddled Pitt for 400+ passing yards last week. They also feature Naaman Roosevelt, probably the best receiver in the MAC and have a second receiver who pulled down 12 balls for 145 yards last week. UCF didn't do much to stop the pass in either of their games, so the possibility exists that Buffalo has their way with the Knights in that facet of the game. I also expect Buffalo to do what every other team that plays UCF has done: Throw your defense out there for 3 plays and return the punt. If Buffalo doesn't turn it over, I think they can win this game easily. Looks like the wrong team is favored here.

9. Mississippi St +9 @Vanderbilt: This is a straight fade of Vandy, wh is absolutely woeful as a favorite in any and all scenarios. I looked to see when the last time Vandy was a 9 point favorite in a conference game, and you have to go all the way back to one of the Cutler teams ('05) against Kentucky, and they lost that one outright. MSU is certainly no juggernaut, but just last year, they knocked off a then unbeaten Vandy squad in Starkville 17-14, holding the 'Dores to only 107 total yards (yes, that's right, 107 total yards) in the process. Offensively, this MSU squad under Dan Mullen is better offensively than the comatose attack that Sly Croom trotted out there last year. I just can't make any case at all for laying those kind of points with such an offensively challenged Vandy team. I know oddsmakers were impressed with Vandy's hanging with LSU last week in the rain in Death Valley, but I for one will be looking hard for opportunities to fade LSU, as their offense has looked about as sharp as toilet log so far this year.

10. San Diego St -3 @Idaho: This is a vast public play, but I really can't see how Idaho can keep SDSU from racking up a shitload of points. QB Lindley has looked very good for SDSU, and he rolled up 400+ passing yards against the Vandals last year in a laugher. SDSU's receivers are big and talented, and Idaho's secondary guys are puny and slow. Bad matchup. It almost looks a little too obvious, but there is a very solid coaching staff in place now with the Aztecs with Brady Hoke calling the shots along with Rocky Long(former NM coach) and Al Borges (former Auburn OC in their undefeated season). I just can't see them blowing this game when they have such a clear advantage on the offensive side of the ball.

11. Navy +7 1/2 @ Pitt: As usual, when I can get Navy at more than a TD against something other than elite competition, I'm generally a taker. The nice thing about navy so far this year is their improvement on defense. In the past, you started to get nervous if they had an open possession(which happened a lot last year when resident jackoff Jarrod Bryant was behind center) but this year, they've looked pretty good. They even covered a sizable number last week against a decent Louisiana Tech squad. Now they match up with Pitt, who had all kinds of trouble stopping Buffalo last week. (500+ yards allowed). They dropped 54 of their own, but that was aided greatly by some special teams miscues and catastrophic turnovers by the Bulls. I really am not sold on Pitt's offense, and now that Ricky Dobbs is running the show, Navy should be able to move the ball as usual. Pitt had success last year against them, but mostly due to Bryant's insistence on sucking all day long. I'll take the points with the clock eating squad. Wanny factor applies here as well.

12. @Kentucky -14 v Louisville: The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout. I at first was surprised to see such a large spread, but it might be justified. Kentucky is much improved on offense. They have good skill position people at RB(Locke) and WR (Cobb). The absolutely destroyed Miami(OH) in week 1 at a neutral site, and have been waiting for the Cards in the 2 weeks since to open a refurbished stadium. Last year, Kentucky won at Louisville 27-2 and it was only thanks to Louisville's defense that is was that close. 3rd defensive system in 3 years for a personnel group that has always struggled. Kentucky is better than last year, and Louisville is certainly worse. The Cards have a couple of decent skill guys in RB Anderson and WR Beaumont,but they have nothing at QB. To whit, new QB Justin Burke threw 2 picks with no TDs against Indiana St. Indiana St might be one of the worst 1-AA schools in the country. Here's a little score info. I noticed that SE Missouri St lost to Cincinnati 70-3 a couple weeks ago, so I checked their schedule and results to see if they had any other horrific events. I actually fond that they beat Quincy (IL) College 72-3. Quincy believe it or not, beat Indiana St. Eastern shut them out 31-0. Louisville beat them only 30-10. Kentucky is going to name the score in this one, and Steve Kragthorpe might be shown the door immediately after.

Others......Tulsa is getting 18 1/2 at Oklahoma. I'm not sure that Tulsa is as good as they have been the past couple of years, but I know that Oklahoma is nowhere near as good as they have been. Landry Jones got comfortable against all time cupcake Idaho St last week, but they might struggle against a real team this week. They can score too..Tulsa that is...I also like WAZZOU to finally get a win against SMU this week. They are making the move to a somewhat capable QB in Marshall Loebestaal and they are getting 6 at home. They hung with Stanford a couple weeks ago in Pullman and piled up some yards on Hawaii last week, so they might be ready to get a win. If they don't it's probably 0-12 for them. SMu shouldn't be favored on the road at this point. Check back in a couple years on that, but not now.....I have sworn off Clemson as a favorite, but I like their spot this week welcoming BC into Death Valley. It's under a TD now, and BC has a new QB and a new coach, normally not a good combination inthe first road game. BC has done ok against very weak competition so far, but I think their lack of a competent passing game will sting them this week......Ohio St is inthe ultimate let down spot,traveling to Cleveland to play Toledo and laying 21. Toledo has put up a staggering amount of yards thus far, so if OSU doesn't bing their A game they might struggle in this one. If they commit to the run, they'll be successful though....I think 17 1/2 points is too much in the Stanfoard San Jose St game, since Stanford is a bit overrated and SJSU has played lights out competition. It's a rivalry game and SJSU's personnel matches up well with Stanford. Harbaugh is very conscious of the spread though, so there's always an issue there. I also have a hunch that Hawaii will throw it all over the field on UNLV this week. They're getting 7 1/2, so I think that might be a good number for them if they can keep up their good passing numbers. That's it for now. Have a great week and good luck if necessary.

Week 3 Weeknight Musing

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Week 2 Musings

I must admit that I am still very melancholy about that game last night. It definitely proves a couple lessons. First, never mentally cash a ticket until the gun goes off. When you do that, you are begging for trouble. Secondly, never be so bold as to proclaim out loud to someone else that "this game is over." You'll regret it later, as I am now. I was in South Bend/Chicago yesterday, so I was listening to that game on XM on my way back down I-65 to Indy. I Love XM by the way. The entire time I was listening, the game went beautifully, just as expected. Then I call my Mom to check how she was doing after an outpatient procedure. She was doing great, but I made the mistake of saying..."Tell Dad that he's all good on the Georgia Tech game. That game is over". As I hang up the phone, Clemson gets a 1 play TD drive. I wasn't worried at the time, but I should have known that I put a major whammy on the Jackets at that moment. Picking this shit is hard enough. I've learned my lesson.

I also wanted to make some quick notes about the beloved Illini, as I haven't said anything about them yet this year. I have to admit that I was pretty optimistic about them prior to week 1. Almost everyone back from last year, senior QB, tons of skill position talent, good offensive and defensive lines, etc. Statistically, they were better than the Rose Bowl year last year, so they were due some breaks. I had some concerns about a secondary that is completely feeble at playing the ball, and thus incapable of getting any interceptions or covering acceptably, but maybe they'd figure something out. Then I watched what was perhaps the worst display of football I have ever seen in my life. I could only make it through about half the game, but it was enough. That is the worst coached team in the country. By far. Bar none. Put it this way, based on that game, I would drive to Morgantown and beg Bill Stewart to take over the reins if given the choice between whatever Alfalfa style coachspeak he might bring in and whatever it was that Zook and his meathead staff put forth last week. Believe it or not, in the postgame locker room, the rumor was that many Illinois players said that they were surprised at how good Missouri was. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt??? You are coming off a 5-7 season and you're playing a team that has owned you for the past 6 games in a row, and you think you can just roll your helmets out there in a dome in their backyard? Had I known they had that attitude, and the coaches would do such a woeful job of getting them mentally prepared to play, I would have thrown 10 units on the money line. Anyway, Zook needs to go. They play ISU this week, which they can't possibly screw up, then get a bye, then play Ohio St, Penn St and Michigan St all in a row. If they end up 1-4, you might see a 1-11 campaign, because Zook would need to do the coaching job of the century to get the team's collective dobbers back up, and he ain't capable of that. Bringing in ath-u-leets, yes, but coaching them, no.

Week 1 was good, 7-4 thanks to a couple of nice wins on Monday. The lateness of the week combined with some travel made this week a tough one to handicap, though, so I'm getting a late start on this. As for last week, I really can't complain. The games I lost, I would probably bet again. You just have to tip your cap to Baylor, Buffalo(although they were very fortunate) and especially BYU. Even if Bradford didn't get hurt, BYU was outplaying them and would never have failed to cover the 21. They look like a different team from last year, kudos to them. On to this week. Unfortunately, we're 0-1 to start.

2. @Iowa St +6 1/2 v Iowa: Everybody saw that Iowa struggled with Northern Iowa last week, and that in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of D-1AA schools that can play, and sometimes D-1 schools get surprised, because they are almost never capable of bringing their A game to a 1-AA foe. Most of the time, an A game isn't needed, but against some of these teams(like Richmond, or UNI for example) it is if you don't want to have them embarrass you. However, Iowa really did not look good, and I don't think it's due to them just not being ready. They don't have a running back because their replacement for Shonn Greene, Jewel Hampton(Indy guy) is out for the year. They ran it at 4 ypc with the new backup, and Stanzi was not very effective in his first time out this year, not that he is the reason they do well on offense anyway. UNI outgained them, and they did so by using a tricky offense with a mobile (albeit fat) QB, who threw for 270 on them. Now they travel to Ames to face their little sister, Iowa St. In the last 5 meetings, ISU has has covered all of them. The last two times Iowa has traveled to Ames, they've lost 23-3 as a 9 pt favorite and 17-15 as a 17 point favorite. Last year, Iowa St outgained Iowa in Iowa City by 85 yards and the Hawkeyes failed to crack 250 total yards WITH SHonn Greene. Now they have no RB, the game is in Ames and they are facing what is probably a significantly better Iowa St team that always salivates at the chance at knocking them off. Iowa St has a QB in Austen Arnaud that is just as mobile, if not more mobile than that little fireplug kid that UNI trotted out there last week. I think Iowa St can beat them again.

3. @Michigan St -14 v Central Michigan: I like MSU this year because the losses they have from last year are easily replaceable. Both of the QBs they plan to play this year are better than Brian Hoyer was and anyone can run for 4 ypc, which is what Javon Ringer did last year. Defensively, they look really good. Central Michigan comes in off a terrible offensive performance against Arizona last week. I think the media and the pundits and overrating some of these MAC offenses this year, and I'll get more into that later on. Dan LeFevour is a favorite for sure. He's from Benet Academy, he's a fun guy to watch and all that. But Central is working on a 4 game losing streak going back to last year, and two of the losses were to EMU and Florida Atlantic in their bowl game last year. LeFevour has not looked good in any of them, and it culminated in a piss poor performance last week in the desert. 13 completions for 103 yards, nothing on the ground. Granted, that was a tough assignment, but they need some downfield plays to have a chance in this one. They were also very lucky that Arizona shot themselves in the foot offensively or they would have lost in a more ugly fashion. I don't see them doing much to MSU's defense, and I really don't see this one being much of a game. CMU will probably pick it up later in the season, but their lack of competitiveness against good BCS teams will continue.

4. @Indiana -1 1/2 v Western Michigan: Throughout the preseason, and certainly amid the Michigan/Dick Rod controversy, I heard different college football observers talking about the Michigan/ WMU game and what would happen if Michigan lost that one. I suppose it was reasonable to consider, since Michigan lost to Toledo last year, but it was more wishcasting than anything else. The wishcasting mostly centered on the assumption that WMU has a great offense. At times last year, they had a good one, but never a great one. They lost their WRs, and QB Hiller was coming off an injury in their bowl game. I was buying in to that noise, which is why I thought Michigan might struggle in the game, but in the back of my mind, I was remembering the debacle of WMU's bowl game in which they couldn't move the ball ON RICE"S DEFENSE. Then they came out and completely shit the bed against Michigan. It's true. This offense is not very good. Now they go to Bloomington to play IU, who admittedly struggled with Eastern Kentucky last week. However, their offense looked ok, piling up yards and uncovering some pretty good receivers. Defensively, against pedestrian outfits, they will be ok this year because they return everyone and have some capability of putting pressure on the QB. Western Michigan, based on their last 2 performances, has shown only an ability to make loud sucking sounds against a decent BCS team on the road. A lot of people are fading Indiana, and that won't be a bad idea later on, but they are significantly better than WMU. They are certainly the value side here at such a short number.

5. East Carolina +6 1/2 @ West Virginia: I can't resisit. There really isn't much line value in this game, since I'd generally like to catch more than a TD, but I can't see that WV will have much of an advantage in this game. Skip Holtz knows how to stop that offense. He did it last year when they had Pat White, and he's got just about everyone back. They have enough on offense to put some points up. I just don't see thisWV offense under Jarrett Brown being able to effectively move the ball on ECU, and I like their chances for the outright win over WV for the second year in a row.

6. North Carolina -4 @UCONN: Usually I would hesitate in this case because UCONN is a good home dog, but they are very sloppy on offense and UNC is very opportunistic. I also think that UCONN is very one dimensional on offense, and UNC is stout on their defensive line, so UCONN's wish to run effectively will probably not be granted. With the probable win in the turnover battle and with a clear advantage in talent, I think UNC covers the four. UCONN would have to be mistake free and I don't think they can do it.

7. Notre Dame -3 @Michigan: Yeah, Michigan looked good last week, but we can thank Western Michigan for that. Based only on that performance, there is no way in hell that they should be getting 3 in this one. Why?? Because a couple true freshman broke off nice looking plays against an overmatched opponent? They are facing a major upgrade in talent here on both sides of the ball. If I was taking Michigan, I'd probably want at least 10 to feel comfortable. Basically, if you like Michigan in this game, you are banking on people from Michigan making big plays. Undoubtedly, the playmakers on Michigan are the two true freshmen. So you will need these two kids to make plays all day, and at the same time hope your defense stops what appears to be an extremely good offense. It's true that Michigan is improved, but Notre Dame is even more improved than they are. I think ND takes this one rather easily.

8. @Southern Miss -14 v Central Florida: I hesitate on this one because CUSA has been one of my worst conferences, and I can remember takng it on the chin more than once when backing the Golden Eagles. However, I really can't see UCF hanging close in this one. So Miss is good offensively. QB Austin Davis was effective last year as a freshman(23/8 ratio) and they have a nice mix on offense, with his passing prowess and a good running game featuring Damion Fletcher. They also have DeAndre Brown, a top level WR, but I'm not sure if he'll be back because he's still recovering from a gruesome broken leg suffered in their bowl game last year. They return all 5 of their OL and are the logical pick to win their division in CUSA this year. On the flip side, UCF, which has been competent defensively in the past, in probably going to struggle. They lost everyone in the secondary, and have at least 4 true freshmen in their 2 deep back there. They remain pathetic on offense, as they proved yet again last week in their opener against Samford, in which they gained a grand total of 282 yards while squeaking out a 4 point win. So Miss should escort them to the woodshed for this one.

9. @Washington -20 1/2 v Idaho: I understand that Idaho went on the road and beat someone for the first team in about 75 years last week, but they are by no means any good. NMSU might be the worst team in D-1, so take that with a grain of salt. Washington lost a toughie to LSU last week. Have I mentioned that I hate Les Miles? What a lucky piece of crap that guy is. They got dominated by a team that was winless last year, but due to a couple lucky turnovers and some fortunate blown coverages, they ended up with the win. Washington legitimately beat up LSU, I don't think hey'll have trouble with Idaho. Generally, in a circumstance like this, Idaho would be a 30 point dog. Under 3 scores is definitely a bargain, and Sarkisian will probably be looking for a chance to gain some confidence for his team. Major blowout is likely here.

10. USC -6 1/2 @Ohio St: First of all, the fact that Ohio St struggled with Navy has nothing to do with my disdain for them this week. It's about the matchup, not what they did last week.Ohio St's only chance in this game is if Terrelle Pryor is indeed Superman himself. I don't care that USC has 10 new starters on defense, they're all better than OSU's offensive personnel, which other than Pryor isn't very good. They won't be able to run on USC, their receivers won't get open, they won't keep pressure out of the pocket. Name it, they won't accomplish it. USC is bringing in what is undoubtedly the best offensive line in the country to face a defense that is significantly less experienced and apparently significantly worse overall than they were last year. I don't give a shit that Matt Barkley is a freshman and might get nervous. When he sees his offensive line steamroll that defense as his recivers are streaking uncovered toward the endzone, his comfort level is going to improve. His 5 deep stable of Parade All-American running backs gashing 8 yards a pop probably won't hurt either. I don't care that Ohio St is looking for respect. I don't care about the stupid horseshoe. USC is going to come in there and hand them their heads. Plain and simple.

11. @UNLV +7 v Oregon St: Generally I like Oregon St, but they have struggled when going on the road early in the season. Defensively, Oregon St returns only 3 starters, and UNLV has some weapons on offense. QB Omar Clayton got hurt late last year, but ended up with an 18/4 ratio. Oregon St has to replace all 4 of their secondary guys, so I think he will have success. On defense, stopping Oregon St's run will be a concern, but they look to have some nice pieces on that side of the ball as well. Remember that UNLV knocked off Arizona St in week 2 last year in Tempe as a 20 point dog, so they have the confidence to pull off the outright win.

12. Tulsa -17 1/2 @New Mexico: Last year, New Mexico traveled to Tulsa and got destroyed 56-14, outgained in the process 606-314. That was under Rocky Long with familiar systems and veteran players. Now, the cupboard is bare, they have completely different schemes, including the Illinois style slow developing screen pass offense under new coach Mike Locksley. Week one at A&M was a disaster for New Mexico, as they gave up (again) 606 yards while mustering up only 230 themselves. Tulsa is probably just as good offensively and almost as good defensively as A&M is and will have a major advantage on the lines. Locksley is going to struggle for awhile out there until he can get the personnel to fit his system. New Mexico doesn't even have much of a home field to fall back on either. Blowout.

Others: Air Force is catching 3 1/2 at Minnesota, where the Goofers open up their new stadium. I'm actually looking forward to seeing it, as it's outdoors, on campus. Pretty cool. However, I can't see how Minny's defense is going to stop the AF rushing attack. Co-coordinators, etc. Also, the move to the more ball control offense will make things easier on AF, because stopping a good spread passing attack would have been a problem for them. Basically, I think coaching holds back Minnesota here.....La-La is at home getting 7 against K St. Looking at these two teams, La La could very easily win this one outright. KSU is 1-8 in their last 9 as road favorites........Texas should blow out Wyoming at Wyoming. For some reason that line has fallen from 34 to 31, where it actually might have some value.....I also have a hunch that Buffalo somehow continues their charmed existence and gives Wanny fits at home catching 10 1/2. All logic actually points to Pitt in this one, but I'll probably be going with my gut and fading Wanny for old time sake...I also like Auburn to put the wood to Miss St. They only have to cover 14, and Gus Malzahn's offense looked very good last week. The right scheme makes all the difference, and Miss St is going to struggle big time this year...That's it for now. Have a good one!!!!!

Week 2 Weeknight musing

Just a quick one. I've been running around like a beheaded chicken this week, so I'll have to keep it short. Full complement coming later.

1.@Ga Tech -5 v Clemson: As I've mentioned, I'm high on the Jackets this year. Clemson comes into Atlanta off a victory against MTSU, GA Tch over D-1aa Jacksonville St. Tech, as we all know if tough to play against...assignment defense is required. Clemson has never been accused of being particularly smart, and I think we'll be seeing a big coaching edge for Tech here, as Dabo Swinney has not proven himself as anything other than a back slapper, fire 'em up type. Clemson is starting a new QB, Kyle Parker, who completed less than 50% of his throws against MTSU at home last week for a small amount of yards, most of which came on one completion. In short, they didn't get much done in the passing game last week. Ga Tech returns their entire secondary, so they will be no pushover against the pass. I think you can be safe in any assumption that Clemson will need to run effectively, very effectively to have much of a chance. This will not be lost on Paul Johnson. If Clemson can't run it effectively(and CJ Spiller went out last week with an injury, so he might be banged up)they will not score much. I also don't think Clemson has the chops to keep Tech off the scoreboard in Atlanta, either. I will be very very surprised if Clemson comes in and wins this game, and I'm afraid that they might not put up much of a fight at all. I can see this one being somewhat of a laugher for the Jackets.

More to come later.......

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Week 1 Musings

I trust that everyone has been looking forward to this week as much as I have. You can smell it in the air. As a matter of fact, here in toothless hillbilly land(well on second thought, I'm north of there..you need to drive another 10 or so miles south to get to the true land of the rednecks..defined as south of Carmel/Fishers, Indiana) it's been cool and briskthe past couple of days, yet gloriously sunny with an electric blue sky. I thought it was early October. There was even a hint of burning leaves in the air. My favorite time of the year. As Lucas said to me.."It smells like Halloween out here." I quickly corrected him. It smells like football. Soon, you'll understand, son.

The turning of our attention to football can pretty much cement our pending abandonment of the baseball season. The Cubs(and the Sox for that matter) confirmed themselves as frauds against all teams remotely close to .500 on the road. The Cubs still had a glimmer of hope if they swept the Mets over the weekend, but that glimmer was squashed. I guess the question for the Cubs would be: Where do they go from here? Their GM has fucked them so royally with horrific contracts that they can't hope to make any meaningful changes. Note: Soriano is signed for $20M+ for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Holy shit, you say? I concur. Zambrano and Dempster are old and declining, and they will combine to make 35 Million over the next 3 years. Jeff Samardzja is being paid several million to get hammered by triple A hacks because he was a good wide receiver. We could stop there and it would be a disaster, but we forget that this jackoff has presided over countless drafts that yield precious few position players who have any sort of clue at the plate. I've often wondered where we will find ourselves as Cubs fans when Jim Hendry doesn't have a blank check, and I think we'll soon find out. As for Soriano, he's perhaps the worst position player in the National League, and certainly the worst bargain by a mile. I am not embellishing when I say that. It reminds me of the following exchange on a national radio broadcast of a Cubs game on th 4th of July weekend. Here's the exchange between play by play guy Dan Schulman and color man Chris Singleton(paraphrasing of couse):

Schulman: Soriano has been under a ton of scrutiny lately. He just has not been productive. Fans have been frsustrated with him, especially at the leadoff spot. He's struggled this year. His OBP is below .300, which is very poor, he hasn't hit a home run since(whenever), he doesn't really steal bases anymore since he's had his leg problems, and his defense in the outfield has always been atrocious.

Singleton: Other than that, though, he's a terrific ballplayer!!

Here's what I would suggest Jim Hendry do in order to extricate himself from the mother of all albatross contracts: Offer Alfonso Soriano(and his contract) along with the other team's pick of any 4 prospects in our organization for a pack of jockstraps. If predictably, everyone tells you to go F yourself, tell them you'll throw in Milton Bradley and pay his salary. When they tell you again to pound sand, substitute Derrek Lee in for Bradley and consider yourself the luckiest man on the planet if they agree to it. If that fails, just shoot yourself. Knowing Hendry though, he"d probably survive and sign Joel Piniero or Jeff Weaver to a $48M/ 4 year deal from his hospital bed.

Don't forget that the games start Thurday. I'll mention it in these writeups. As with every year, the original goal is 60%. I've never done it, but come damn close a couple times. The numbered musings were 57.5% last year. We'll see what happens this year. Lines are courtesy of covers as of Tuesday evening.

1. @Boise St -3 1/2 v Oregon:(Thursday) When I first started looking at this game, I was expecting to lean toward Oregon, what with the revenge angle, and my preconceived notion that Boise was fortunate to beat Oregon last year in Eugene. On second glance at the stats and game log from that game, this was not really the case. Boise led after 3 quarters by 21+, and pretty much rope-a doped the 4th quarter enough so that the game got close and Oregon won the statistical battle. This year, Oregon appears to me to be a weaker outfit. They have to replace 4 out of 5 starters on the offensive line, most of their receiving playmakers are gone, and although Chip Kelly has been in the program for a couple of years, he's a rookie coach in his first game on the road. Frankly, if Oregon doesn't completely dominate this game in the trenches and with ther running game, I don't think they have a chance, because Boise is going to score on them. Even last year, when they were the #1 per carry rushing attack in the country, they only averaged 4.4 per rush against Boise in Eugene. Unlike Oregon, I would suggest that Boise is better than last year. Their QB Kellen Moore was efficient to say the least, and carved up the Ducks(pun intended) for 386 yards in the game last year. We all know Chris Peterson is a sharp cookie, so we can expect a coaching edge as well. Throw in the fact that this is the game of the year for Boise, it's on the blue turf, and it's a relatively small number, and I don't think there's any doubt which side is the value side.

2. @Notre Dame -14 v Nevada: First, I have to say that I very much like Nevada's team, and I think they have a competent coach in Chris Ault. A quick perusing of their stats from last year shows a dominant running game coupled with a stout rush defense. However, it's apparent that Nevada has made their living over the past several years on the soft underbelly of the WAC, i.e, the pathetic, helpless types like New Mexico St, Idaho, Utah State, etc, who are handicapped by unfortunate things such as nowheresville locations, puny players and inept football coaches. If you look at the non UNLV non-con performances of Nevada in recent years, it isn't pretty. Offensively, they might be able to pull off some interesting plays early, and they might get some momentum, but their crushing inability to stop the pass will be the death of them, as they have no hope to be able to cover the likes of Floyd and Golden Tate. I think ND almost certainly will pile up 500+ yards in this one, and wins this one going away, something like 49-22.

3. @California -21 1/2 v Maryland: Last year, the Twerps snuck up on Cal and bushwhacked them at 9AM on the Bears body clocks in College Park. Cal got off to a horrendous start, and despite piling up an ungodly amount of yards, could not come back to win. This year, Cal is looking for revenge, and they will most certainly get it, and in bloody fashion. Just about every conceivable edge goes to Cal in this game, from each team's performance on artificial turf, to the motivation, to the time of the game...it's just a bad matchup for Maryland. Cal is significantly better than they were last year, and Maryland looks like they will struggle mightily on both sides of the ball. Let's start with MD's offense. Only two starters returning on the offensive line, and the 3 new guys are all underclassmen. Chris Turner (aka Napolean Dynamite) returns at QB, but he has no playmakers to help him. His RBs are ok, but they will have nowhere to run because Cal will stack up the box. Turner is going to have to carry the mail himself here, and be the reason that Maryland is successful. That ain't gonna work. Defensively, Cal is a different animal at home, and even last year, once they came out of the doldrums, Cal's offense shredded Maryland. Jahvid Best was a forgotten man in the comeback effort last year, that won't be the case this year. Look for 200+ from him. This game is going to be over by halftime.

4. Georgia +6 @ Oklahoma St: I realize that this is possibly the biggest game in Oklahoma St history, and that Okie St has a damn good offense, etc, but looking at this game closely, I just don't see Georgia getting a trip to the woodshed in this game. It's true that in the skill areas Oklahoma St matches up favorably with just about anyone, but there is no way anyone can tell me that when you line up these two teams, Georgia isn't the deeper, more talented team, and by a lot. OSU is not going to be facing one of these "hurry up and score so we can have the ball back" defenses of the Big 12. Georgia will have a distinct edge on both lines, they have depth everywhere, and Mark Richt's teams almost always play well on the road. (He's 30-4 in true road games...you read that right...30-4). I also vividly remember Oregon openeing up a can of whoop ass on Okie St in the second half of their bowl game last year, effectively running them over with a stout run game. Georgia is certainly capable of doing something similar. I'd also add that OSU's starting TE left the team for some reason this week, one of their starting LB's hurt his knee in practice and their top CB Perrish Cox got arrested last week. (Although, knowing Gundy, he'll probably play anyway).In truth, I see this as a 50/50 proposition as to who wins outright, maybe even a lean to the Dawgs. I'll gladly take the points.

5. @UTEP -7 1/2 v Buffalo: For most college football observers amd media types, it's an intense sprint to see who can be the first lapdog to Turner Gill's jock. Yeah, he turned Buffalo around and through wild, mystical luck they ended up winning the MAC title last year, but come on. This is a team that got outgained in conference by the MAC last year. It's true that they opened with UTEP last year and beat them soundly, but UTEP was playing their first game under a new defensive system, had Texas on deck in El Paso, and had to travel about as far as you can travel and stay within the contiguous 48. Now Buffalo has the travel disadvantage, and they're teeing it up in the Sun Bowl with a QB who's never taken a snap. Also, returning starting RB James Starks blew out his ACL in practice, and he was actually one of the best players in the MAC. On the other hand, UTEP has just about everyone returning, including QB Trevor Vittatoe (33/9 ratio) and his two favorite receiving targets. Normally luck evens out year to year for all teams not named USC or Florida(or on the negative side, Illinois), so Buffalo can expect to catch some bad luck, and I think it'll start in week 1.

6. @Wake -2 v Baylor: Ok, let me get this straight. Last year, Wake goes to Waco in the opener(laying 11), and slaps Baylor around for 4 quarters, resulting in a 41-13 victory. The offense that posted 41 pretty much returns intact, but this year, Baylor has to make the cross country trip. So if I'm taking Baylor, I need them to go across the country and beat a well coached BCS conference school with a 4 year starting QB outright to cash? No thanks. The Baylor love is mostly due to QB Robert Griffin, the next "it" guy that everyone wants to say they told you about. He's good, but I'm skeptical tht he can do it by himself. The defense that gave up close to 500 per game on the road last year is going to have to help out, and I don't see it. Also, don't forget that their best player by far last year(and maybe since Singletary??) was OT Jason Smith, the #2 pick in the draft, and he gone. Listen, I like Art Briles a lot, probably even significantly more than the next guy, and Baylor might show up and play well, earn some respect, blah blah blah, but I don't think they're ready to pull off this task. Maybe next year.

7. Navy +22 @Ohio St: First of all, that bonehead Jarod Bryant is gone. Thank the Good Lord for that. I have to say that I hemmed and hawed on this one quite a bit because Navy's backfield is going to be mostly new and their space eating DT got kicked off the team, but I really can't resist. First of all, I am not a fan of Ohio St this year. I AM a fan of Terrelle Pryor, mind you, but I am not a fan of this team. As an aside, Jim Tressel better understand that Pryor needs to be every bit as good as Vince Young was in '05 if OSU is going to do much of anything this year, so he better let him be that good and stop with the conservative bullshit. As has been harped on ad nauseum in these pages over the years, it is damn hard to blow out Navy. They chew up clock and have a knack for forcing the annoying turnover to keep them in the game. Now if you have a high powered passing attack that carves them up like a Texas Tech or something, different story, but this would be especially true for plodding, pedestrian type offenses like Ohio St. OSU has probably the best player in the B10 in Pryor, but other than that, they are limited at the skill positions. WR looks weak, RB slightly better, and their offensive line has been disappointing. Defensively, their playmakers are gone, so they lack experience, and that is not a good thing when you are trying to navigate the Navy triple option. The biggest factor, however, is the USC game that looms next week. Even though they are going to get their asses kicked on their home field, they don't know that yet, so they are excited to get that game ramped up after all the offseason chatter about USC coming to the stupid horseshoe. With Chris Wells getting hurt in week 1 last year, I can see them being very conservative in this one. They only want to get this game out of the way without losing anyone, and would be content with a 10 point victory in my opinion. Even so, at their best, I don't know that they have the chops to work Navy.

8. Stanford -17 @Washington St: I don't need to get into how bad Wazzou was last year, but let's just say that it was truly epic. A masterpiece of futility. They were outgained in conference by 279 yards per game. Teams were routinely covering 40 point spreads by halftime. They made the post Lou Tepper Illinois squads of 97/98 look like the '85 Bears. Now they host Stanford in the opener, a team that has just about all of their contributors back from a pretty decent team last year. This was a 58-0 game last year, and Stanfard looks better. As for WAZZOU, I guess they can't get any worse, but I can tell you that there are no handsome Tim Tebow types on the next puddle jumper to Pullman. Even if there was, I'd still like Stanford.

9. Oklahoma -21 1/2 v BYU: This game is at the new Cowboys stadium, but there will be a shitload of Oklahoma fans there, because as I've heard, there are more OU fans in Dallas than there are in Norman. BYU is a nice outfit. I like Bronco Mendenhall quite a bit, but they are a little bit like your average bully. They can rough up the have-nots of the MWC or in non-conference, or even rebuilding BCS teams, but when it comes down to it, they fall short against the big boys. Oklahoma's offense is going to be obscene, just like it was last year. You can pretty much chalk up 55 or so for the Sooners. So that means Max Hall (who I certainly like, and might lead them to a run of the table from here) will need to have his full mojo working to get them in the 30's in order to cover. That is going to be difficult, however, because they have lost 3 starting offensive linemen for the year since fall practice started. Worse yet, they've had to replace all 3 of these guys wih freshmen. Worse still, OU's defensive line is considered the best in the country, or among the best anyway. If you've heard of the term "pinning their ears back" you get the picture. Check Max Hall for vital signs at halftime.

10. Cincinnati +5 1/2 @Rutgers: This line is moving, so you might have a shot to catch it at 6, but we'll see. The rub against Cincy is that they have to replace all but 1 of their starters on the defensive side of the ball. That's true, and would really be a concern for them if they were playing a dynamic offense, but this Rutgers bunch is anything but. It was good last year due to the throwing prowess of Mike Teel and a strong group of receivers, and it led to a thunderous excursion through the latter part of their schedule, but that is not the case this year. Teel is gone and they have not figured out as of now who their starter will be. Whoever it is, (some guido named Dominic Natale probably) they won't have any experience and are extremely unlikely to have any success throwing the ball to a bunch of nobodies at receiver.The positive thing for the Rutgers offense is that all 5 lineman return, and the fear is that they'll run all over Cincy here. If you're Rutgers you better hope that happens, because it's the only way you're going to move the ball. However, if you look at their schedule from last year hoping to find dominating run performances, you aren't going to find any. 2.4 ypc against Morgan St. 3.1 against Fresno. 2.1 against Cincy. 2.2 against UCONN. 2.8 against WV. 2.4 against Pitt. You get the idea. I'm also not convinced that Brian Kelly won't fashion a good stop unit. Despite a BCS bowl and a solid defense last year, he launched his DC to bring in one of his buddies from Central Michigan. Also, Cincy has had good rush D the past 4 years, and I'm sure they've had to replace people before. I've said all this, and I haven't even touched on Cincy's offense, which should be good, returning an experienced QB in Tony Pike (61% comp, 19/11 ratio), all CUSA receiver Mardy Gilyard, 7 of his top 8 receivers and all their rushing yards. Cincy has a great shot of winning this game outright in my opinion since they have such a big edge offensively. I'll gladly take the points.

11. Miami +6 1/2 (maybe buy to 7) @ Florida St:: This game is almost always close and low scoring. I don't know about the low scoring part, but I can't really differentiate between these two teams. Last year Florida St pretty much dominated the game but thanks to some madcap antics near the end, they had to pull it out at the end. Miami had all kinds of excuses for their performance that day, as Robert Marve(or Kirby Freeman Jr) was playing QB, their best LB got hurt in practice the week of, etc. The truth is, I'm not a big fan of Fla St this year. Their offensive line has been awful for the past 2 years, but is now considered a strength, as is QB Christian Ponder, who was teetering on the edge of basket case status for most of the year last year.They don't have much returning at WR. They do have a legit home run threat at RB in Jermaine Thomas, but I'm just not sold on their offense. Their defense is losing a lot as well, including their two best players, DE Everette Brown, and the media's new Jesus, the Rhodes Scholar Myron Rolle. Miami on the other hand has a nice complement returning on offense, with all of their rushing yards and their top 4 receivers back. I especially like that they'll be handing the keys to QB Jacory Harris, who should have been playing all year last year. I thought he looked very good in their bowl game in SF against a good Cal squad last year, and should vault him into a good performance this year. Almost 7 is just too much for this game. I think the chances are just as good that Miami wins this outright as they are that this game turns into a laugher.

Others: I'm skeptical of what appear to be bad teams laying points. This would be the case for sure with New Mexico St laying 3. Now, the opponent is Idaho, so I guess I can see the thought there, but is there any doubt that Hal Mumme might have left some baggage behind for new coach DeWayne Walker. They have to completely change the offense as well. I'd almost expect just about anyone to come in there and benefit from the chaos, but it's Idaho, so I cant 100% recommend it. I'll be on it though....Same deal with Ball St. New coach, new QB, 4 out of 5 new OL, and they are laying 17?? Again, it's North Texas, but there are reasons for optimism with UNT. The coach's kid takes over at QB, and I guess he was a top 10 QB recruit coming out of college. They've been able to score some points since Todd Dodge took over with his gimmick offense out of the Texas HS ranks, so there is a good possibility that they'll be able to come up to Muncie and run the Cards ragged, but there's all kinds of unknowns in this one. Hell, UNT might win this by 24 for all I know, and maybe Ball St will be similar to the squad they were last year, in which case they win by 30. I doubt that, but there's enough of an unknown to where I can't fully add this one, but I'll be on the spread and the money line for UNT just in case.......I think New Mexico and our pal Mike Locksley are going to struggle a lot off the bat, brand new system on both sides with not much coming back. A&M should whack them, but we're talking about a team that dropped their opener last year to Arky St, so laying two TDs makes me nervous. They should get it done, though. I actually like their offense quite a bit........I was planning on pulling the trigger on NC St, but that spread has gone to 5 1/2, and NC St's bread and butter is as a dog. I fully expect them to handle South Carolina, but the line keeps going up and they won't have their best defensive player Nate Irving, who they were lost without when he was hurt last year. Russell Wilson is good though, not sure if I've mentioned that......I really think Washington has a great chance to hang with LSU at home, and they're getting 17 1/2. They will be a different team than that pile of shit we saw last year, but I don't think I'd classify them as "good" yet. I really like Sarkisian, and they have Locker back so I can see some success in this game, but I'm not sold that they won't fall apart once LSU gets their bearings. I'll be betting them though. Also, look out for clunker performances from Big Ten squads in their MAC warmups: Michigan against WMU(-12 1/2), Wisconsin against NIU(-16 1/2) and Purdue against Toledo(-11). Maybe even Penn St against Akron (-27). That's it for now. Good luck in your endeavors, and God Bless college football.

Pre-season Musings, 2009

All Riiiiiighhhhttt!!!!! 17 days until we kick it off on Thursday night 9/3/09. Sorry again this year for the delay in whatever the hell this is, but I've been preoccupied. Last year, the same thing happened, but this year, rather than being sucked in to the Cubs sinister lies, I've been occupied by the much more sinister bullshit emanating from our federal gubmint. No more elaboration on that, because frankly, once I get started, it doesn't stop until either I'm lurching around the room trying to claw my own eyes out or vomiting projectile style. So I don't want to do that.

As for this year in college football. I have to mention something. As all of you know, I have been a vehement critic of any iteration of a playoff system in college football. I've also tried to make the point that we shouldn't care so much about the national champion, but the sport is so obsessed with that topic that it's really silly to try to stem that tide. The problem with he current BCS system, if you have interest in who plays for the title is that very few teams have a shot at actually playing for the title. Utah proved last year that nobody outside of the top 6 BCS conferences is ever going to make it, as they were undefeated when nobody else was and beat 4 ranked teams in the process. Their conference also beat the PAC 10 head to head 8-1 in the regular season. Even if you're in a BCS conference, teams not ranked in the preseason top 10 have to go undefeated when everyone else has a loss to make it. Basically, it comes down to about 6 or 7 teams that have a shot every year. Take this year, for example: I'd set the chances at about 75% that the national championship game will be Florida vs the Oklahoma/Texas winner. In other words, you better find something other than the MNC race to pay attention to if you're a college football fan. Not a problem for us, I would presume, but I can see why some people would be somewhat frustrated with that.

As in past years, I'm going to go over a few teams that for whatever reason seem to have some interesting aspects about them. In the past, I've listed them under "Teams I like" and "Teams I don't like". I'll keep the same format this year. I'd like to say that these would be teams that I'll like for ATS purposes, but since we haven't seen how the public reacts to them, all we know for sure is that there are some things that might point to their ability to do better than they have in the past or better than what most people would think, or worse. Here it goes. Texas, Oklahoma and Florida should be assumed to be on this list, so I'll avoid wasting people's times. They're good. Tebow is a pretty good leader. Sam Bradford can sling it. Colt McCoy is swell. You've heard this I believe.

Teams I like:

1. Notre Dame: I really don't know how much I am going out on a limb here, since to me it seems pretty obvious that Coach Front Butt and his boys are going to have a nice year, but I still see a lot of talking heads looking at the Irish with great skepticism. Note that the coaches have them 23rd to start the season, and many publications have them unranked. That pompous blubbering behemoth has been a favorite whipping boy of mine the past couple of years, but this year, I really can't see how they can avoid playing in a BCS game this year. Although he's about as likable as raw sewage, Jimmy Claussen throws a nice ball, and he has all kinds of experience, bad and good since he started taking weakly beatings two years ago as a member of that historically putrid ND offense in '07. He has probably the best set of starting receivers in the country in Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and the offensive line made solid strides last year with everyone back this year. Defensively, they return a ton of guys and add the best defensive recruit in the country, Manti Te'o a beast of a linebacker who looks like he should have gone to USC. Their schedule is very advantageous. Almost all of the teams they play figure to have a first year starter at QB. Their toughest game is definitely USC(at home). After that.....Stanford?? Michigan St? At Pitt? Not a murderers row by any stretch. The best QB they'll face all year is probably Colin Kaepernick of Nevada in week one. I think they have a great shot at winning 10 games. If Charlie can't win at least 9, his coaching acumen should be seriously questioned, and he should be shown the door. And hopefully the doorway is very wide.

2. Washington: Don't laugh. I'll agree that listing a team that was 0-12 last year and lost to a team that gave up 58 points or more 6 times last year(Wazzou) is somewhat counter-intuitive, but let's think about this. Most programs have a coach that will go down in history as the one coach that fans will pop a blood vessel at the mere thought of. For example, I cover South Bend for work, and I have known since day 1 that Bob Davie is not to be brought up in any conversation with a serious Notre Dame fan. Doing so will either buy you an invitation to "take your conversation outside", or worse, a 2x4 over the head without warning. If you've known me for awhile, you certainly remember my gin soaked, bleary eyed age 22 rants about Lou Tepper's destruction of the Illinois program back in the mid to late 90's. Now we have Washington...another once proud program brought to disrepair by a clueless coach..Ty Willingham in this case. After QB Jake Locker got injured for the season in week 3, this team was close to giving up. Then they got a whiff of their backup Qb Ronnie Fouch in action. That, combined with Ty's de-motivational stylings and death-knell recruiting momentum sent the Huskies into a collective fetal position, and it was not pretty. Now they have Steve Sarkisian as their coach and Locker back in action. . How bad was their QB play last year?? Ronnie Fouch was the lowest rated QB in the Pac 10 last year. Ahead of him were 2 Washington St Qbs. One of them, Kevin Lopina, had a 0/11 TD/INT ratio. Fouch was worse than him. Also remember that there are 13 guys who contributed to the '07 team on this team. That team dominated Boise, whipped Cal, and lost by only 3 at USC. Even last year, before they had given up and Locker was still in there, they only lost by 1 to BYU. I think this team is on the uptick, and could see some big spreads. Unfortunately, they probably won't improve their record much due to a very tough schedule(Pac 10 slate plus ND, LSU in non-con). I'll be interested in seeing this team, though. Locker is very underrated.

3. Ole Miss: This is a very trendy pick, but there is good reason for it. Here's a team that brings back just about everyone from a team that beat Florida at Florida, dominated LSU at LSU and kicked the shit out of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. They avoid Florida and Georgia out the SEC East and get their main competition in the West(LSU and Bama) at home. Now, I am not as big of fan as Jevan Sneed as everyone else is, but it's definitely set up for Ole Miss to have one hell of a year.

4. Arkansas: This team was a basket case at the beginning of last year. They exposed themselves as a team on shaky ground by needing miracle finishes in their first two games to beat Western Illinois and Lou-Monroe, then found themselves staring at a gauntlet of Texas, Alabama and Florida in consecutive weeks. 3 blowout losses later and Hawg fans were ready to burn their red bib overalls. However, predictably, Bobby Petrino got organized once they could catch their breath against non Top 5 competition and they laid a groundwork for better things to come. In their last 7 games against SEC opponents(and Tulsa who was undefeated and by far the top offense in the country) they outgained the foes by 86 yards per game. Included in the stretch were wins against 3 ranked teams, and a 2 point loss at Ole Miss. This is all despite their undeniable addiction to turnovers.(-11 on the year) We can probably expect continued improvement from any Petrino coached team, and a check of their roster indicates a ton of talent in all skill positions. They have 3 elite running backs, lots of receiver depth and former Michigan QB(and #2 national recruit) Ryan Mallett takes over at QB. Mallett was good enough to play as a true freshman at Michigan, so I'm guessing there's enough talent there that Petrino will be able to do some things with him. Once they can solidify their lines(which still look like a bit of a weakness) they will be a complete team. Having said all this, they got screwed by the schedule maker this year, as they drew both Georgia and Florida out of the East, and their road games are at Florida, at Alabama, at Ole Miss and at LSU. That slate sets up a possibility of some hurt feelings and self pity, but if they don't get their dobbers down, they'll be solid ATS plays in my opinion. Early warning for '10 on this team when they get Bama, Ole Miss and LSU at home and Florida and Georgia are off the schedule.

5. Georgia Tech: If you polled 100 media members and asked them who would win the ACC this year, 90-95 of them would say Virginia Tech. They might be right, because Va Tech oftentimes finds a way to win games they shouldn't, but to me, I have a hard time seeing how they are going to beat Georgia Tech in their own division. I think everyone knows of my fondness for Paul Johnson and his schemes. Everyone knows what he's going to do, but nobody can stop it. For example, Georgia Tech's two RBs (Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy White) averaged 7.0 and 8.5 ypc last year. In the first year of Johnson's system, they had a learn a new system, had a total of only 9 starters back and had to replace their top 5 tacklers on defense.Despite all that, they went 9-3 against a schedule that featured all 5 road games against bowl teams.(Va Tech, UNC, Clemson, BC and Georgia.) In the Virginia Tech game, they outgained Tech in Blacksburg 387-247 but lost by a FG after 3 second half turnovers. This year, every conceivable offensive skill contributor returns as well as 4 of the 5 offensive linemen. Their entire back 7 also returns on defense. Their toughest road games are at Miami and Florida St, who both have issues of their own. You can assume solid improvement in year 2 of Johnson's system, and their schedule is easier than last year. If they can hold serve at home, they have a great chance of being a BCS team.

Others: I would be really bullish on Minnesota, since they are moving to a new stadium and have virtually everyone back from a team that went to a bowl, but they are employing the dreaded "West Coast offense coordinated by a former NFL tight ends coach." Trust me, that's never good.....Cal should be really good. Nice defense, Jeff Tedford calling the shots on offense, and maybe the best offensive player in the country in Jahvid Best.If Kevin Riley puts it together, they have a shot at running the table because they get USC at home and don't have any of those nasty east coast trips to make. Well, I guess they have to go to Minnesota, but a Big Ten team couldn't possibly handle a top 10 opponent in the non-conference, right?.......Most people are counting out Georgia because of their brutal schedule(and it's brutal) and the fact that Moreno and Stafford are gone, but Joe Cox has played before, and they have all kinds of talent at RB waiting to step in. Just about everyone is back on defense, and their offensive line is among the best in the country....As long as Russell Wilson doesn't get hurt, I love NC State. They didn't fail to cover all year last year when he was under center. Of course, they were dogs every time, but he was fun to watch. I like Tom O'Brien as a coach, and the ACC has no heavyweights. They are probably another year away, but they might get some things done this year.....

Teams I don't like:

1. Michigan: (BIAS ALERT!!!>>>>>I HATE MICHIGAN AND DICK ROD< SO TAKE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT)Why does everyone think that this team is going to magically find themselves in a good bowl game this year? Because they are in year 2 of a system that has no chance to fail?? Because Dick Rod=success, regardless of who plays on his team? This team still does not have any playmakers on offense and will be putting all of it's eggs in the basket of a true freshman QB who's never taken a snap. They do have 5 likely home game wins on the schedule(Purdue, Indiana, 2 directional Michigan schools and Delaware St), so they have a shot at 6 wins, but I don't see any chance of a return of any sort to past Michigan glory. They need to get some playmakers in that system.

2. South Carolina: At this point, when do we start calling a spade a spade when it comes to the Ball Coach? I'm not even sure what year this is in the Spurrier regime...5 or 6 I guess, and he still can't field an average Division 1 offense. He coaches his QBs into quivering little queers who are so afraid to make mistakes that they practically break down in tears in the middle of possessions. Tommy Beecher asked out of the job during the second half of their first game of the year last year. This year, he still doesn't have a QB, and he lost his top rusher and receiver as well. They'll be ok on defense, but this team isn't going to be competitive this year, and the reason for that is that Steve Spurrier can't coach up an offense anymore.

3. Kansas St: There were a lot of raised eyebrows when K St gave Ron Prince the job years ago, and now we can see why. It's so bad that they dug up Bill Snyder's corpse to take the job back. At this point, the horse is out of the barn, so going back to a guy who was losing it 4 years ago after consecutive losing seasons and rumors of not having his heart in it anymore doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense. Of course, when you're program's been ruined and nobody else would ever take the job, I guess that's what you're stuck with. Luckily for them, Kst has not abandoned the Bill Snyder scheduling method as UMass, Tennessee Tech and La La make up 3 of their non-conference games, s they might win a couple

4. Louisville: This is mostly because I used to really like this team. Steve Kragthorpe has brought back to light all the disadvantages about Louisville that Bobby Petrino made you forget. Suddenly now Louisville is again a commuter school that is hard to recruit to. A previous embarrassment of skill position talent has turned into a deserted wasteland, where second rate Juco thugs take their places in the starting lineup. They have no idea who is going to play QB for them. Hell, they've lost to Syracuse in back to back years when they HAD some players. What now?? Luckily for them, the Big East is horrible. Now they'll just lose games instead of getting blown out.

5. The Big East: Trying to find a team to pick for this league is borderline impossible. West Virginia is going to be another of my favorite teams to fade, unless Bill Stewart miraculously finds a Pat White play-alike and develops some intellect. Pittsburgh has a decent defense and some talent returning, but AAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPPPP, Wanny still roams the sidelines, so a breakout year seems unlikely, especially since they won't be able to score. Rutgers was very good late last year and has a ton of linemen returning, but no skill guys on offense. South Florida is a basket case, Cincinnati has to replace all 11 starters on defense, UCONN has to actually replace 4 draft picks(!!), which is something a program like that can seldom do, and they lost by far their best player in Donald Brown. That leaves Syracuse. So there's not much in this conference. Not pretty.

Players to look out for other than Bradford, McCoy and Tebow.

1. Jahvid Best RB Cal: 8 yards per carry last year and the ability to take any handoff and high step it into the end zone. Very good offensive line returning, and opposing teams have to be wary of the passing game, so he won't have defenders constantly keying on him like Ray Rice or Javon Ringer used to have. I just punched myself in the neck for comparing Jahvid Best to Javon Ringer.

2.LeGarrette Blount RB Oregon: He shared time last year with Jeremiah Johnson, but he's now gone, and that's good for Oregon. This is guy is a wrecking machine. Think Clubber Lang with with a 240 pound frame and 4.5 speed. He averaged 7.3 ypc on an assortment of line plunges. I forsee a lot of sneering at opposing crowds out of this guy this year.

3. Russell Wilson QB NC State: True freshman. 17 TDs 1 Int. Tough kid. Good runner. Well liked by teammates. They COVERED IN EVERY GAME HE FINISHED UPRIGHT. That is all the people need to know.

4. Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma St: This wildman caught 87 balls last year for almost 1500 yards in about 10+ games. for 19 TDs. !9. He can't be covered. Of course it should be noted that he played in the Big Twelve, where they think defense is only a rumor. For example, Oklahoma scored over 60 5 weeks in a row, Oklahoma St scored over 50 5 times, Texas Tech did it 4 times. Also don't forget that in '07 Nebraska gave up 76 points to Kansas one week, then scored 73 against Kansas St the week after. I think they use flags in that league.

Here are some schools that are going to have to overcome some coaching "handicaps"

1, West Virginia: I've been over this. Bill Stewart is overmatched. That's the understatement of the century. This year's stylings will include an increased emphasis on the passing game. This is because he has a weak passer who can run playing QB. Sounds logical. It's a bizzaro world in Morgantown.

2. Clemson: I haven't seen any evidence of this, but the guy's name is Dabo Swinney. Come on.

3. LSU: The puppeteers were finally absent last year, as Bo Pelini left for Nebraska after Jimbo Fisher had left the year before that. This effectively left Miles exposed, as he employed the dreaded Co-defensive coordinators o the D, and had admitted basket case Gary Crowton as his OC. The result, a criminally unprepared team that was outgained for the year despite having a stacked roster. This year, he lucks out, as Tennessee's John Chavis became available to hold his sippy cup.

4. Purdue: Their new coach is a guy named Danny Hope. I had actually never heard of the guy before they hired him. He was a .500 coach at Eastern Kentucky. He thinks he's going to be able to play smashmouth football. At Purdue. With limited talent and size. I'm guessing he's little light on the firing synapses.

Well, that does it for now. I'll be back relatively soon with the Week 1 musings. Here's to a great season.

College Football Madcapper