Week 2 Musings

I must admit that I am still very melancholy about that game last night. It definitely proves a couple lessons. First, never mentally cash a ticket until the gun goes off. When you do that, you are begging for trouble. Secondly, never be so bold as to proclaim out loud to someone else that "this game is over." You'll regret it later, as I am now. I was in South Bend/Chicago yesterday, so I was listening to that game on XM on my way back down I-65 to Indy. I Love XM by the way. The entire time I was listening, the game went beautifully, just as expected. Then I call my Mom to check how she was doing after an outpatient procedure. She was doing great, but I made the mistake of saying..."Tell Dad that he's all good on the Georgia Tech game. That game is over". As I hang up the phone, Clemson gets a 1 play TD drive. I wasn't worried at the time, but I should have known that I put a major whammy on the Jackets at that moment. Picking this shit is hard enough. I've learned my lesson.

I also wanted to make some quick notes about the beloved Illini, as I haven't said anything about them yet this year. I have to admit that I was pretty optimistic about them prior to week 1. Almost everyone back from last year, senior QB, tons of skill position talent, good offensive and defensive lines, etc. Statistically, they were better than the Rose Bowl year last year, so they were due some breaks. I had some concerns about a secondary that is completely feeble at playing the ball, and thus incapable of getting any interceptions or covering acceptably, but maybe they'd figure something out. Then I watched what was perhaps the worst display of football I have ever seen in my life. I could only make it through about half the game, but it was enough. That is the worst coached team in the country. By far. Bar none. Put it this way, based on that game, I would drive to Morgantown and beg Bill Stewart to take over the reins if given the choice between whatever Alfalfa style coachspeak he might bring in and whatever it was that Zook and his meathead staff put forth last week. Believe it or not, in the postgame locker room, the rumor was that many Illinois players said that they were surprised at how good Missouri was. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt??? You are coming off a 5-7 season and you're playing a team that has owned you for the past 6 games in a row, and you think you can just roll your helmets out there in a dome in their backyard? Had I known they had that attitude, and the coaches would do such a woeful job of getting them mentally prepared to play, I would have thrown 10 units on the money line. Anyway, Zook needs to go. They play ISU this week, which they can't possibly screw up, then get a bye, then play Ohio St, Penn St and Michigan St all in a row. If they end up 1-4, you might see a 1-11 campaign, because Zook would need to do the coaching job of the century to get the team's collective dobbers back up, and he ain't capable of that. Bringing in ath-u-leets, yes, but coaching them, no.

Week 1 was good, 7-4 thanks to a couple of nice wins on Monday. The lateness of the week combined with some travel made this week a tough one to handicap, though, so I'm getting a late start on this. As for last week, I really can't complain. The games I lost, I would probably bet again. You just have to tip your cap to Baylor, Buffalo(although they were very fortunate) and especially BYU. Even if Bradford didn't get hurt, BYU was outplaying them and would never have failed to cover the 21. They look like a different team from last year, kudos to them. On to this week. Unfortunately, we're 0-1 to start.


2. @Iowa St +6 1/2 v Iowa: Everybody saw that Iowa struggled with Northern Iowa last week, and that in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of D-1AA schools that can play, and sometimes D-1 schools get surprised, because they are almost never capable of bringing their A game to a 1-AA foe. Most of the time, an A game isn't needed, but against some of these teams(like Richmond, or UNI for example) it is if you don't want to have them embarrass you. However, Iowa really did not look good, and I don't think it's due to them just not being ready. They don't have a running back because their replacement for Shonn Greene, Jewel Hampton(Indy guy) is out for the year. They ran it at 4 ypc with the new backup, and Stanzi was not very effective in his first time out this year, not that he is the reason they do well on offense anyway. UNI outgained them, and they did so by using a tricky offense with a mobile (albeit fat) QB, who threw for 270 on them. Now they travel to Ames to face their little sister, Iowa St. In the last 5 meetings, ISU has has covered all of them. The last two times Iowa has traveled to Ames, they've lost 23-3 as a 9 pt favorite and 17-15 as a 17 point favorite. Last year, Iowa St outgained Iowa in Iowa City by 85 yards and the Hawkeyes failed to crack 250 total yards WITH SHonn Greene. Now they have no RB, the game is in Ames and they are facing what is probably a significantly better Iowa St team that always salivates at the chance at knocking them off. Iowa St has a QB in Austen Arnaud that is just as mobile, if not more mobile than that little fireplug kid that UNI trotted out there last week. I think Iowa St can beat them again.

3. @Michigan St -14 v Central Michigan: I like MSU this year because the losses they have from last year are easily replaceable. Both of the QBs they plan to play this year are better than Brian Hoyer was and anyone can run for 4 ypc, which is what Javon Ringer did last year. Defensively, they look really good. Central Michigan comes in off a terrible offensive performance against Arizona last week. I think the media and the pundits and overrating some of these MAC offenses this year, and I'll get more into that later on. Dan LeFevour is a favorite for sure. He's from Benet Academy, he's a fun guy to watch and all that. But Central is working on a 4 game losing streak going back to last year, and two of the losses were to EMU and Florida Atlantic in their bowl game last year. LeFevour has not looked good in any of them, and it culminated in a piss poor performance last week in the desert. 13 completions for 103 yards, nothing on the ground. Granted, that was a tough assignment, but they need some downfield plays to have a chance in this one. They were also very lucky that Arizona shot themselves in the foot offensively or they would have lost in a more ugly fashion. I don't see them doing much to MSU's defense, and I really don't see this one being much of a game. CMU will probably pick it up later in the season, but their lack of competitiveness against good BCS teams will continue.

4. @Indiana -1 1/2 v Western Michigan: Throughout the preseason, and certainly amid the Michigan/Dick Rod controversy, I heard different college football observers talking about the Michigan/ WMU game and what would happen if Michigan lost that one. I suppose it was reasonable to consider, since Michigan lost to Toledo last year, but it was more wishcasting than anything else. The wishcasting mostly centered on the assumption that WMU has a great offense. At times last year, they had a good one, but never a great one. They lost their WRs, and QB Hiller was coming off an injury in their bowl game. I was buying in to that noise, which is why I thought Michigan might struggle in the game, but in the back of my mind, I was remembering the debacle of WMU's bowl game in which they couldn't move the ball ON RICE"S DEFENSE. Then they came out and completely shit the bed against Michigan. It's true. This offense is not very good. Now they go to Bloomington to play IU, who admittedly struggled with Eastern Kentucky last week. However, their offense looked ok, piling up yards and uncovering some pretty good receivers. Defensively, against pedestrian outfits, they will be ok this year because they return everyone and have some capability of putting pressure on the QB. Western Michigan, based on their last 2 performances, has shown only an ability to make loud sucking sounds against a decent BCS team on the road. A lot of people are fading Indiana, and that won't be a bad idea later on, but they are significantly better than WMU. They are certainly the value side here at such a short number.

5. East Carolina +6 1/2 @ West Virginia: I can't resisit. There really isn't much line value in this game, since I'd generally like to catch more than a TD, but I can't see that WV will have much of an advantage in this game. Skip Holtz knows how to stop that offense. He did it last year when they had Pat White, and he's got just about everyone back. They have enough on offense to put some points up. I just don't see thisWV offense under Jarrett Brown being able to effectively move the ball on ECU, and I like their chances for the outright win over WV for the second year in a row.

6. North Carolina -4 @UCONN: Usually I would hesitate in this case because UCONN is a good home dog, but they are very sloppy on offense and UNC is very opportunistic. I also think that UCONN is very one dimensional on offense, and UNC is stout on their defensive line, so UCONN's wish to run effectively will probably not be granted. With the probable win in the turnover battle and with a clear advantage in talent, I think UNC covers the four. UCONN would have to be mistake free and I don't think they can do it.

7. Notre Dame -3 @Michigan: Yeah, Michigan looked good last week, but we can thank Western Michigan for that. Based only on that performance, there is no way in hell that they should be getting 3 in this one. Why?? Because a couple true freshman broke off nice looking plays against an overmatched opponent? They are facing a major upgrade in talent here on both sides of the ball. If I was taking Michigan, I'd probably want at least 10 to feel comfortable. Basically, if you like Michigan in this game, you are banking on people from Michigan making big plays. Undoubtedly, the playmakers on Michigan are the two true freshmen. So you will need these two kids to make plays all day, and at the same time hope your defense stops what appears to be an extremely good offense. It's true that Michigan is improved, but Notre Dame is even more improved than they are. I think ND takes this one rather easily.

8. @Southern Miss -14 v Central Florida: I hesitate on this one because CUSA has been one of my worst conferences, and I can remember takng it on the chin more than once when backing the Golden Eagles. However, I really can't see UCF hanging close in this one. So Miss is good offensively. QB Austin Davis was effective last year as a freshman(23/8 ratio) and they have a nice mix on offense, with his passing prowess and a good running game featuring Damion Fletcher. They also have DeAndre Brown, a top level WR, but I'm not sure if he'll be back because he's still recovering from a gruesome broken leg suffered in their bowl game last year. They return all 5 of their OL and are the logical pick to win their division in CUSA this year. On the flip side, UCF, which has been competent defensively in the past, in probably going to struggle. They lost everyone in the secondary, and have at least 4 true freshmen in their 2 deep back there. They remain pathetic on offense, as they proved yet again last week in their opener against Samford, in which they gained a grand total of 282 yards while squeaking out a 4 point win. So Miss should escort them to the woodshed for this one.

9. @Washington -20 1/2 v Idaho: I understand that Idaho went on the road and beat someone for the first team in about 75 years last week, but they are by no means any good. NMSU might be the worst team in D-1, so take that with a grain of salt. Washington lost a toughie to LSU last week. Have I mentioned that I hate Les Miles? What a lucky piece of crap that guy is. They got dominated by a team that was winless last year, but due to a couple lucky turnovers and some fortunate blown coverages, they ended up with the win. Washington legitimately beat up LSU, I don't think hey'll have trouble with Idaho. Generally, in a circumstance like this, Idaho would be a 30 point dog. Under 3 scores is definitely a bargain, and Sarkisian will probably be looking for a chance to gain some confidence for his team. Major blowout is likely here.

10. USC -6 1/2 @Ohio St: First of all, the fact that Ohio St struggled with Navy has nothing to do with my disdain for them this week. It's about the matchup, not what they did last week.Ohio St's only chance in this game is if Terrelle Pryor is indeed Superman himself. I don't care that USC has 10 new starters on defense, they're all better than OSU's offensive personnel, which other than Pryor isn't very good. They won't be able to run on USC, their receivers won't get open, they won't keep pressure out of the pocket. Name it, they won't accomplish it. USC is bringing in what is undoubtedly the best offensive line in the country to face a defense that is significantly less experienced and apparently significantly worse overall than they were last year. I don't give a shit that Matt Barkley is a freshman and might get nervous. When he sees his offensive line steamroll that defense as his recivers are streaking uncovered toward the endzone, his comfort level is going to improve. His 5 deep stable of Parade All-American running backs gashing 8 yards a pop probably won't hurt either. I don't care that Ohio St is looking for respect. I don't care about the stupid horseshoe. USC is going to come in there and hand them their heads. Plain and simple.

11. @UNLV +7 v Oregon St: Generally I like Oregon St, but they have struggled when going on the road early in the season. Defensively, Oregon St returns only 3 starters, and UNLV has some weapons on offense. QB Omar Clayton got hurt late last year, but ended up with an 18/4 ratio. Oregon St has to replace all 4 of their secondary guys, so I think he will have success. On defense, stopping Oregon St's run will be a concern, but they look to have some nice pieces on that side of the ball as well. Remember that UNLV knocked off Arizona St in week 2 last year in Tempe as a 20 point dog, so they have the confidence to pull off the outright win.

12. Tulsa -17 1/2 @New Mexico: Last year, New Mexico traveled to Tulsa and got destroyed 56-14, outgained in the process 606-314. That was under Rocky Long with familiar systems and veteran players. Now, the cupboard is bare, they have completely different schemes, including the Illinois style slow developing screen pass offense under new coach Mike Locksley. Week one at A&M was a disaster for New Mexico, as they gave up (again) 606 yards while mustering up only 230 themselves. Tulsa is probably just as good offensively and almost as good defensively as A&M is and will have a major advantage on the lines. Locksley is going to struggle for awhile out there until he can get the personnel to fit his system. New Mexico doesn't even have much of a home field to fall back on either. Blowout.

Others: Air Force is catching 3 1/2 at Minnesota, where the Goofers open up their new stadium. I'm actually looking forward to seeing it, as it's outdoors, on campus. Pretty cool. However, I can't see how Minny's defense is going to stop the AF rushing attack. Co-coordinators, etc. Also, the move to the more ball control offense will make things easier on AF, because stopping a good spread passing attack would have been a problem for them. Basically, I think coaching holds back Minnesota here.....La-La is at home getting 7 against K St. Looking at these two teams, La La could very easily win this one outright. KSU is 1-8 in their last 9 as road favorites........Texas should blow out Wyoming at Wyoming. For some reason that line has fallen from 34 to 31, where it actually might have some value.....I also have a hunch that Buffalo somehow continues their charmed existence and gives Wanny fits at home catching 10 1/2. All logic actually points to Pitt in this one, but I'll probably be going with my gut and fading Wanny for old time sake...I also like Auburn to put the wood to Miss St. They only have to cover 14, and Gus Malzahn's offense looked very good last week. The right scheme makes all the difference, and Miss St is going to struggle big time this year...That's it for now. Have a good one!!!!!