Week 3 Musings

Well, there was another bad start to a week. Good Lord do I hate when that happens.....I might just stop listing the weeknight games on principle. Or maybe I'll just stop betting on Georgia Tech. My rapture toward Paul Johnson probably needs to be tempered a bit, since he presided over a team that couldn't get out of it's own way tonight. They lost 33-17, but it wasn't even that close. They didn't cover a soul all night, they couldn't pressure the quarterback and they couldn't tackle. That makes it tough. Just ugly. As was previously mentioned, last week was not good. 3-9 to lead to a year to date record of 10-13, which is the first time the musings have ever been under .500 for the year. I aim to correct that this week, but we're off to a bad start with that misguided play from tonight.

No more small talk...it's on like Donkey Kong.


2. Cal -14 @Minnesota: If a team can make Greg Paulus look competent after a 4 year layoff in his first start, what will the Cal offense do to that team. Minnesota was very lucky to beat AirForce last week,and they have not really gotten going on offense yet this year, which is mostly due to a change in offensive approach to match their new stadium. More of a gritty, west coast offense for the outdoor elements I guess. Since their offense used to be rather effective, that seems like a mistake to me. Minny will be facing what will certainly be the best defense they have faced thus far, and it goes without saying that they'll be up against superior athletes on the offensive side as well. Big struggles should be in the offing for the Gophers. There is a slight concern with the starting time, which will be 9am on the Cal body clocks, but there is too much of a talent/coaching edge for Cal here to ignore. Final note: These two teams sport the worst uniform combinations this side of Eugene, Oregon. Cal likes to go with those hideous gold jerseys and dark blue pants with the cartoonish bear claws on the shoulders. Minnesota counters with all gold pajamas. Why football players playing a violent sport insist on dressing as though they are making a trip to The Manhole on North Halsted rather than a football field is beyond me. Thankfully, Cal will have to wear white.

3. Utah +5 @Oregon: Having watched Oregon in both of their games this year, I would peg myself as mostly unimpressed with their overall squad. Against Boise, there was absolutely nothing on the offensive side of the ball that indicated anything remotely positive. They looked uninspired, disorganized, slow, and after the game, deranged. Against Purdue, on heir home field against a drop in defensive class, they looked marginally better, but by no means impressive. Purdue handed them that game with 2 defensive scores and a botched extra point. Defensively, Utah will be the best group the Ducks have faced yet, and unless Chip Kelly has suddenly figured it out, I expect more of the same. I think the guy is a complete jackass, but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to a very good ATS record as a dog. I like Utah's chances for the outright victory here.

4. @Virginia Tech -5 v Nebraska: It's true that VT was clearly outclassed in their opener with Alabama, but that wasn't all that surprising, given Bama's prowess on defense. Nebraska has looked good so far this year, and their new QB Zac Lee has actually led the charge, but this is a very tough spot. We all know how tough the Gobblers can be at home in Blacksburg, and this team went into Lincoln last year and handled the Huskers with Joe Ganz at QB. Offensively, the normally pedestrian VT attack actually looked pretty good, with Tyrod Taylor uncharacteristically converting 3rd downs at an efficient clip. This year, Nebraska travels all the way to Blacksburg in what will be Lee's first ever road start. Also, Va tech is much more explosive than they were last year on offense with the addition of two home run threats in the backfield in David Wilson and Ryan Williams, who between them rushed for almost 12 ypc on 28 carries last week against a Marshall team that many thought had a pretty good front 7.I think it is asking a heck of a lot for Zac Lee to come in and be effective in this environment, and if he isn't, I don't think there's a scenario where Nebraska can stay within a score.

5. @Baylor -10 1/2 v UCONN: I would normally declare caveat emptor in instances in which you are laying points against UCONN, but this week is a very tough spot for them. Their starting QB, Zack Frazer is injured and will not play, and their backup, who hasn't taken a snap, has been sick all week and hasn't practiced. Their third stringer is a true freshman who they plan to redshirt, so they will most likely force the backup in there. This is a long trip for UCONN, and they're facing a team that played them to a standstill early last year in Storrs. I don't have to repeat how impressed I was with Baylor's victory in week 1 at Wake. Now they are at home, and get to play in front of a crowd that will be glad to see them for once. UCONN's usually stout defense will be without their top linebacker, so look for Art Briles to expose the UCONN defense. Tough, tough spot for UCONN, especially after that rough loss on the late safety last week at home.

6. @BYU -7 v Florida St: I don't know if any of you had a chance to watch Florida St's Labor Day tilt with Miami. It was a hell of a game. However, one thing that was obvious was that Florida State showed very little interest in covering any of Miami's receivers. That does not bode well against a squad that can throw it with the precision that BYU can. Harvey Unga will also be back, so BYU now goes 3 deep at RB. Chistian Ponder looked pretty good against Miami, but that was mostly against the soft underbelly of Miami's cover none scheme, that seems to be gaining popularity in the college game now that it's run it's course of terrible coverage in the NFL. I'm not impressed with FSU's receivers, and Ponder will need a distinct advantage in that area in order to put up the passing numbers that will be needed to stay in this one.The atmosphere in Provo will be rocking, as this is their first home game this year, and the Mormon faithful will be eager to greet their returning heroes and honored guests with ear splitting screeches. You can still get this at 7 in some spots, but it's moving up. I'll probably buy it back to 7 in any case.

7. Arkansas -2 v Georgia: Surprisingly, this line has moved against public sentiment, which is 60-65% on Georgia's side. Despite having already played Oklahoma St, I would dare say that the Hogs will be the best offense the Dawgs have faced so far this year. Arkansas truly is loaded with skill position talent, and there is no doubt that Bobby Petrino knows what he is doing offensively. The bad news for Georgia is that while they have had their hands full with OSU and South Carolina the past 2 weeks, Arkansas has been laying in wait off an open date, preparing all the while. Ryan Mallett looked great in their first game, and it's not like it's his first rodeo, as he played in several games as a true frosh at Michigan in '07.Georgia gave up yards and points to South Carolina last week, and as I've mentioned, this Hog offense is much better than Spurrier's pop gun attack under the buffoonish Stephen Garcia. Georgia still hasn't figured it out on the offensive side either. If they don't score points here, they are in trouble.

8. Buffalo +4 1/2 @Central Florida: This UCF team garnered a grand total of 171 yards last week at Southern Miss. Prior to that against Samford, they racked up 282 on the way to being outgained. Buffalo appears to have found themselves a QB in Zack Maynard, who riddled Pitt for 400+ passing yards last week. They also feature Naaman Roosevelt, probably the best receiver in the MAC and have a second receiver who pulled down 12 balls for 145 yards last week. UCF didn't do much to stop the pass in either of their games, so the possibility exists that Buffalo has their way with the Knights in that facet of the game. I also expect Buffalo to do what every other team that plays UCF has done: Throw your defense out there for 3 plays and return the punt. If Buffalo doesn't turn it over, I think they can win this game easily. Looks like the wrong team is favored here.

9. Mississippi St +9 @Vanderbilt: This is a straight fade of Vandy, wh is absolutely woeful as a favorite in any and all scenarios. I looked to see when the last time Vandy was a 9 point favorite in a conference game, and you have to go all the way back to one of the Cutler teams ('05) against Kentucky, and they lost that one outright. MSU is certainly no juggernaut, but just last year, they knocked off a then unbeaten Vandy squad in Starkville 17-14, holding the 'Dores to only 107 total yards (yes, that's right, 107 total yards) in the process. Offensively, this MSU squad under Dan Mullen is better offensively than the comatose attack that Sly Croom trotted out there last year. I just can't make any case at all for laying those kind of points with such an offensively challenged Vandy team. I know oddsmakers were impressed with Vandy's hanging with LSU last week in the rain in Death Valley, but I for one will be looking hard for opportunities to fade LSU, as their offense has looked about as sharp as toilet log so far this year.

10. San Diego St -3 @Idaho: This is a vast public play, but I really can't see how Idaho can keep SDSU from racking up a shitload of points. QB Lindley has looked very good for SDSU, and he rolled up 400+ passing yards against the Vandals last year in a laugher. SDSU's receivers are big and talented, and Idaho's secondary guys are puny and slow. Bad matchup. It almost looks a little too obvious, but there is a very solid coaching staff in place now with the Aztecs with Brady Hoke calling the shots along with Rocky Long(former NM coach) and Al Borges (former Auburn OC in their undefeated season). I just can't see them blowing this game when they have such a clear advantage on the offensive side of the ball.


11. Navy +7 1/2 @ Pitt: As usual, when I can get Navy at more than a TD against something other than elite competition, I'm generally a taker. The nice thing about navy so far this year is their improvement on defense. In the past, you started to get nervous if they had an open possession(which happened a lot last year when resident jackoff Jarrod Bryant was behind center) but this year, they've looked pretty good. They even covered a sizable number last week against a decent Louisiana Tech squad. Now they match up with Pitt, who had all kinds of trouble stopping Buffalo last week. (500+ yards allowed). They dropped 54 of their own, but that was aided greatly by some special teams miscues and catastrophic turnovers by the Bulls. I really am not sold on Pitt's offense, and now that Ricky Dobbs is running the show, Navy should be able to move the ball as usual. Pitt had success last year against them, but mostly due to Bryant's insistence on sucking all day long. I'll take the points with the clock eating squad. Wanny factor applies here as well.

12. @Kentucky -14 v Louisville: The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout. I at first was surprised to see such a large spread, but it might be justified. Kentucky is much improved on offense. They have good skill position people at RB(Locke) and WR (Cobb). The absolutely destroyed Miami(OH) in week 1 at a neutral site, and have been waiting for the Cards in the 2 weeks since to open a refurbished stadium. Last year, Kentucky won at Louisville 27-2 and it was only thanks to Louisville's defense that is was that close. 3rd defensive system in 3 years for a personnel group that has always struggled. Kentucky is better than last year, and Louisville is certainly worse. The Cards have a couple of decent skill guys in RB Anderson and WR Beaumont,but they have nothing at QB. To whit, new QB Justin Burke threw 2 picks with no TDs against Indiana St. Indiana St might be one of the worst 1-AA schools in the country. Here's a little score info. I noticed that SE Missouri St lost to Cincinnati 70-3 a couple weeks ago, so I checked their schedule and results to see if they had any other horrific events. I actually fond that they beat Quincy (IL) College 72-3. Quincy believe it or not, beat Indiana St. Eastern shut them out 31-0. Louisville beat them only 30-10. Kentucky is going to name the score in this one, and Steve Kragthorpe might be shown the door immediately after.


Others......Tulsa is getting 18 1/2 at Oklahoma. I'm not sure that Tulsa is as good as they have been the past couple of years, but I know that Oklahoma is nowhere near as good as they have been. Landry Jones got comfortable against all time cupcake Idaho St last week, but they might struggle against a real team this week. They can score too..Tulsa that is...I also like WAZZOU to finally get a win against SMU this week. They are making the move to a somewhat capable QB in Marshall Loebestaal and they are getting 6 at home. They hung with Stanford a couple weeks ago in Pullman and piled up some yards on Hawaii last week, so they might be ready to get a win. If they don't it's probably 0-12 for them. SMu shouldn't be favored on the road at this point. Check back in a couple years on that, but not now.....I have sworn off Clemson as a favorite, but I like their spot this week welcoming BC into Death Valley. It's under a TD now, and BC has a new QB and a new coach, normally not a good combination inthe first road game. BC has done ok against very weak competition so far, but I think their lack of a competent passing game will sting them this week......Ohio St is inthe ultimate let down spot,traveling to Cleveland to play Toledo and laying 21. Toledo has put up a staggering amount of yards thus far, so if OSU doesn't bing their A game they might struggle in this one. If they commit to the run, they'll be successful though....I think 17 1/2 points is too much in the Stanfoard San Jose St game, since Stanford is a bit overrated and SJSU has played lights out competition. It's a rivalry game and SJSU's personnel matches up well with Stanford. Harbaugh is very conscious of the spread though, so there's always an issue there. I also have a hunch that Hawaii will throw it all over the field on UNLV this week. They're getting 7 1/2, so I think that might be a good number for them if they can keep up their good passing numbers. That's it for now. Have a great week and good luck if necessary.