Pre-season Musings, 2009

All Riiiiiighhhhttt!!!!! 17 days until we kick it off on Thursday night 9/3/09. Sorry again this year for the delay in whatever the hell this is, but I've been preoccupied. Last year, the same thing happened, but this year, rather than being sucked in to the Cubs sinister lies, I've been occupied by the much more sinister bullshit emanating from our federal gubmint. No more elaboration on that, because frankly, once I get started, it doesn't stop until either I'm lurching around the room trying to claw my own eyes out or vomiting projectile style. So I don't want to do that.

As for this year in college football. I have to mention something. As all of you know, I have been a vehement critic of any iteration of a playoff system in college football. I've also tried to make the point that we shouldn't care so much about the national champion, but the sport is so obsessed with that topic that it's really silly to try to stem that tide. The problem with he current BCS system, if you have interest in who plays for the title is that very few teams have a shot at actually playing for the title. Utah proved last year that nobody outside of the top 6 BCS conferences is ever going to make it, as they were undefeated when nobody else was and beat 4 ranked teams in the process. Their conference also beat the PAC 10 head to head 8-1 in the regular season. Even if you're in a BCS conference, teams not ranked in the preseason top 10 have to go undefeated when everyone else has a loss to make it. Basically, it comes down to about 6 or 7 teams that have a shot every year. Take this year, for example: I'd set the chances at about 75% that the national championship game will be Florida vs the Oklahoma/Texas winner. In other words, you better find something other than the MNC race to pay attention to if you're a college football fan. Not a problem for us, I would presume, but I can see why some people would be somewhat frustrated with that.

As in past years, I'm going to go over a few teams that for whatever reason seem to have some interesting aspects about them. In the past, I've listed them under "Teams I like" and "Teams I don't like". I'll keep the same format this year. I'd like to say that these would be teams that I'll like for ATS purposes, but since we haven't seen how the public reacts to them, all we know for sure is that there are some things that might point to their ability to do better than they have in the past or better than what most people would think, or worse. Here it goes. Texas, Oklahoma and Florida should be assumed to be on this list, so I'll avoid wasting people's times. They're good. Tebow is a pretty good leader. Sam Bradford can sling it. Colt McCoy is swell. You've heard this I believe.

Teams I like:



1. Notre Dame: I really don't know how much I am going out on a limb here, since to me it seems pretty obvious that Coach Front Butt and his boys are going to have a nice year, but I still see a lot of talking heads looking at the Irish with great skepticism. Note that the coaches have them 23rd to start the season, and many publications have them unranked. That pompous blubbering behemoth has been a favorite whipping boy of mine the past couple of years, but this year, I really can't see how they can avoid playing in a BCS game this year. Although he's about as likable as raw sewage, Jimmy Claussen throws a nice ball, and he has all kinds of experience, bad and good since he started taking weakly beatings two years ago as a member of that historically putrid ND offense in '07. He has probably the best set of starting receivers in the country in Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and the offensive line made solid strides last year with everyone back this year. Defensively, they return a ton of guys and add the best defensive recruit in the country, Manti Te'o a beast of a linebacker who looks like he should have gone to USC. Their schedule is very advantageous. Almost all of the teams they play figure to have a first year starter at QB. Their toughest game is definitely USC(at home). After that.....Stanford?? Michigan St? At Pitt? Not a murderers row by any stretch. The best QB they'll face all year is probably Colin Kaepernick of Nevada in week one. I think they have a great shot at winning 10 games. If Charlie can't win at least 9, his coaching acumen should be seriously questioned, and he should be shown the door. And hopefully the doorway is very wide.

2. Washington: Don't laugh. I'll agree that listing a team that was 0-12 last year and lost to a team that gave up 58 points or more 6 times last year(Wazzou) is somewhat counter-intuitive, but let's think about this. Most programs have a coach that will go down in history as the one coach that fans will pop a blood vessel at the mere thought of. For example, I cover South Bend for work, and I have known since day 1 that Bob Davie is not to be brought up in any conversation with a serious Notre Dame fan. Doing so will either buy you an invitation to "take your conversation outside", or worse, a 2x4 over the head without warning. If you've known me for awhile, you certainly remember my gin soaked, bleary eyed age 22 rants about Lou Tepper's destruction of the Illinois program back in the mid to late 90's. Now we have Washington...another once proud program brought to disrepair by a clueless coach..Ty Willingham in this case. After QB Jake Locker got injured for the season in week 3, this team was close to giving up. Then they got a whiff of their backup Qb Ronnie Fouch in action. That, combined with Ty's de-motivational stylings and death-knell recruiting momentum sent the Huskies into a collective fetal position, and it was not pretty. Now they have Steve Sarkisian as their coach and Locker back in action. . How bad was their QB play last year?? Ronnie Fouch was the lowest rated QB in the Pac 10 last year. Ahead of him were 2 Washington St Qbs. One of them, Kevin Lopina, had a 0/11 TD/INT ratio. Fouch was worse than him. Also remember that there are 13 guys who contributed to the '07 team on this team. That team dominated Boise, whipped Cal, and lost by only 3 at USC. Even last year, before they had given up and Locker was still in there, they only lost by 1 to BYU. I think this team is on the uptick, and could see some big spreads. Unfortunately, they probably won't improve their record much due to a very tough schedule(Pac 10 slate plus ND, LSU in non-con). I'll be interested in seeing this team, though. Locker is very underrated.

3. Ole Miss: This is a very trendy pick, but there is good reason for it. Here's a team that brings back just about everyone from a team that beat Florida at Florida, dominated LSU at LSU and kicked the shit out of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. They avoid Florida and Georgia out the SEC East and get their main competition in the West(LSU and Bama) at home. Now, I am not as big of fan as Jevan Sneed as everyone else is, but it's definitely set up for Ole Miss to have one hell of a year.

4. Arkansas: This team was a basket case at the beginning of last year. They exposed themselves as a team on shaky ground by needing miracle finishes in their first two games to beat Western Illinois and Lou-Monroe, then found themselves staring at a gauntlet of Texas, Alabama and Florida in consecutive weeks. 3 blowout losses later and Hawg fans were ready to burn their red bib overalls. However, predictably, Bobby Petrino got organized once they could catch their breath against non Top 5 competition and they laid a groundwork for better things to come. In their last 7 games against SEC opponents(and Tulsa who was undefeated and by far the top offense in the country) they outgained the foes by 86 yards per game. Included in the stretch were wins against 3 ranked teams, and a 2 point loss at Ole Miss. This is all despite their undeniable addiction to turnovers.(-11 on the year) We can probably expect continued improvement from any Petrino coached team, and a check of their roster indicates a ton of talent in all skill positions. They have 3 elite running backs, lots of receiver depth and former Michigan QB(and #2 national recruit) Ryan Mallett takes over at QB. Mallett was good enough to play as a true freshman at Michigan, so I'm guessing there's enough talent there that Petrino will be able to do some things with him. Once they can solidify their lines(which still look like a bit of a weakness) they will be a complete team. Having said all this, they got screwed by the schedule maker this year, as they drew both Georgia and Florida out of the East, and their road games are at Florida, at Alabama, at Ole Miss and at LSU. That slate sets up a possibility of some hurt feelings and self pity, but if they don't get their dobbers down, they'll be solid ATS plays in my opinion. Early warning for '10 on this team when they get Bama, Ole Miss and LSU at home and Florida and Georgia are off the schedule.

5. Georgia Tech: If you polled 100 media members and asked them who would win the ACC this year, 90-95 of them would say Virginia Tech. They might be right, because Va Tech oftentimes finds a way to win games they shouldn't, but to me, I have a hard time seeing how they are going to beat Georgia Tech in their own division. I think everyone knows of my fondness for Paul Johnson and his schemes. Everyone knows what he's going to do, but nobody can stop it. For example, Georgia Tech's two RBs (Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy White) averaged 7.0 and 8.5 ypc last year. In the first year of Johnson's system, they had a learn a new system, had a total of only 9 starters back and had to replace their top 5 tacklers on defense.Despite all that, they went 9-3 against a schedule that featured all 5 road games against bowl teams.(Va Tech, UNC, Clemson, BC and Georgia.) In the Virginia Tech game, they outgained Tech in Blacksburg 387-247 but lost by a FG after 3 second half turnovers. This year, every conceivable offensive skill contributor returns as well as 4 of the 5 offensive linemen. Their entire back 7 also returns on defense. Their toughest road games are at Miami and Florida St, who both have issues of their own. You can assume solid improvement in year 2 of Johnson's system, and their schedule is easier than last year. If they can hold serve at home, they have a great chance of being a BCS team.


Others: I would be really bullish on Minnesota, since they are moving to a new stadium and have virtually everyone back from a team that went to a bowl, but they are employing the dreaded "West Coast offense coordinated by a former NFL tight ends coach." Trust me, that's never good.....Cal should be really good. Nice defense, Jeff Tedford calling the shots on offense, and maybe the best offensive player in the country in Jahvid Best.If Kevin Riley puts it together, they have a shot at running the table because they get USC at home and don't have any of those nasty east coast trips to make. Well, I guess they have to go to Minnesota, but a Big Ten team couldn't possibly handle a top 10 opponent in the non-conference, right?.......Most people are counting out Georgia because of their brutal schedule(and it's brutal) and the fact that Moreno and Stafford are gone, but Joe Cox has played before, and they have all kinds of talent at RB waiting to step in. Just about everyone is back on defense, and their offensive line is among the best in the country....As long as Russell Wilson doesn't get hurt, I love NC State. They didn't fail to cover all year last year when he was under center. Of course, they were dogs every time, but he was fun to watch. I like Tom O'Brien as a coach, and the ACC has no heavyweights. They are probably another year away, but they might get some things done this year.....

Teams I don't like:

1. Michigan: (BIAS ALERT!!!>>>>>I HATE MICHIGAN AND DICK ROD< SO TAKE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT)Why does everyone think that this team is going to magically find themselves in a good bowl game this year? Because they are in year 2 of a system that has no chance to fail?? Because Dick Rod=success, regardless of who plays on his team? This team still does not have any playmakers on offense and will be putting all of it's eggs in the basket of a true freshman QB who's never taken a snap. They do have 5 likely home game wins on the schedule(Purdue, Indiana, 2 directional Michigan schools and Delaware St), so they have a shot at 6 wins, but I don't see any chance of a return of any sort to past Michigan glory. They need to get some playmakers in that system.

2. South Carolina: At this point, when do we start calling a spade a spade when it comes to the Ball Coach? I'm not even sure what year this is in the Spurrier regime...5 or 6 I guess, and he still can't field an average Division 1 offense. He coaches his QBs into quivering little queers who are so afraid to make mistakes that they practically break down in tears in the middle of possessions. Tommy Beecher asked out of the job during the second half of their first game of the year last year. This year, he still doesn't have a QB, and he lost his top rusher and receiver as well. They'll be ok on defense, but this team isn't going to be competitive this year, and the reason for that is that Steve Spurrier can't coach up an offense anymore.

3. Kansas St: There were a lot of raised eyebrows when K St gave Ron Prince the job years ago, and now we can see why. It's so bad that they dug up Bill Snyder's corpse to take the job back. At this point, the horse is out of the barn, so going back to a guy who was losing it 4 years ago after consecutive losing seasons and rumors of not having his heart in it anymore doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense. Of course, when you're program's been ruined and nobody else would ever take the job, I guess that's what you're stuck with. Luckily for them, Kst has not abandoned the Bill Snyder scheduling method as UMass, Tennessee Tech and La La make up 3 of their non-conference games, s they might win a couple

4. Louisville: This is mostly because I used to really like this team. Steve Kragthorpe has brought back to light all the disadvantages about Louisville that Bobby Petrino made you forget. Suddenly now Louisville is again a commuter school that is hard to recruit to. A previous embarrassment of skill position talent has turned into a deserted wasteland, where second rate Juco thugs take their places in the starting lineup. They have no idea who is going to play QB for them. Hell, they've lost to Syracuse in back to back years when they HAD some players. What now?? Luckily for them, the Big East is horrible. Now they'll just lose games instead of getting blown out.

5. The Big East: Trying to find a team to pick for this league is borderline impossible. West Virginia is going to be another of my favorite teams to fade, unless Bill Stewart miraculously finds a Pat White play-alike and develops some intellect. Pittsburgh has a decent defense and some talent returning, but AAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPPPP, Wanny still roams the sidelines, so a breakout year seems unlikely, especially since they won't be able to score. Rutgers was very good late last year and has a ton of linemen returning, but no skill guys on offense. South Florida is a basket case, Cincinnati has to replace all 11 starters on defense, UCONN has to actually replace 4 draft picks(!!), which is something a program like that can seldom do, and they lost by far their best player in Donald Brown. That leaves Syracuse. So there's not much in this conference. Not pretty.

Players to look out for other than Bradford, McCoy and Tebow.


1. Jahvid Best RB Cal: 8 yards per carry last year and the ability to take any handoff and high step it into the end zone. Very good offensive line returning, and opposing teams have to be wary of the passing game, so he won't have defenders constantly keying on him like Ray Rice or Javon Ringer used to have. I just punched myself in the neck for comparing Jahvid Best to Javon Ringer.

2.LeGarrette Blount RB Oregon: He shared time last year with Jeremiah Johnson, but he's now gone, and that's good for Oregon. This is guy is a wrecking machine. Think Clubber Lang with with a 240 pound frame and 4.5 speed. He averaged 7.3 ypc on an assortment of line plunges. I forsee a lot of sneering at opposing crowds out of this guy this year.

3. Russell Wilson QB NC State: True freshman. 17 TDs 1 Int. Tough kid. Good runner. Well liked by teammates. They COVERED IN EVERY GAME HE FINISHED UPRIGHT. That is all the people need to know.

4. Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma St: This wildman caught 87 balls last year for almost 1500 yards in about 10+ games. for 19 TDs. !9. He can't be covered. Of course it should be noted that he played in the Big Twelve, where they think defense is only a rumor. For example, Oklahoma scored over 60 5 weeks in a row, Oklahoma St scored over 50 5 times, Texas Tech did it 4 times. Also don't forget that in '07 Nebraska gave up 76 points to Kansas one week, then scored 73 against Kansas St the week after. I think they use flags in that league.

Here are some schools that are going to have to overcome some coaching "handicaps"

1, West Virginia: I've been over this. Bill Stewart is overmatched. That's the understatement of the century. This year's stylings will include an increased emphasis on the passing game. This is because he has a weak passer who can run playing QB. Sounds logical. It's a bizzaro world in Morgantown.

2. Clemson: I haven't seen any evidence of this, but the guy's name is Dabo Swinney. Come on.

3. LSU: The puppeteers were finally absent last year, as Bo Pelini left for Nebraska after Jimbo Fisher had left the year before that. This effectively left Miles exposed, as he employed the dreaded Co-defensive coordinators o the D, and had admitted basket case Gary Crowton as his OC. The result, a criminally unprepared team that was outgained for the year despite having a stacked roster. This year, he lucks out, as Tennessee's John Chavis became available to hold his sippy cup.

4. Purdue: Their new coach is a guy named Danny Hope. I had actually never heard of the guy before they hired him. He was a .500 coach at Eastern Kentucky. He thinks he's going to be able to play smashmouth football. At Purdue. With limited talent and size. I'm guessing he's little light on the firing synapses.

Well, that does it for now. I'll be back relatively soon with the Week 1 musings. Here's to a great season.