Week 1 Musings

I trust that everyone has been looking forward to this week as much as I have. You can smell it in the air. As a matter of fact, here in toothless hillbilly land(well on second thought, I'm north of there..you need to drive another 10 or so miles south to get to the true land of the rednecks..defined as south of Carmel/Fishers, Indiana) it's been cool and briskthe past couple of days, yet gloriously sunny with an electric blue sky. I thought it was early October. There was even a hint of burning leaves in the air. My favorite time of the year. As Lucas said to me.."It smells like Halloween out here." I quickly corrected him. It smells like football. Soon, you'll understand, son.

The turning of our attention to football can pretty much cement our pending abandonment of the baseball season. The Cubs(and the Sox for that matter) confirmed themselves as frauds against all teams remotely close to .500 on the road. The Cubs still had a glimmer of hope if they swept the Mets over the weekend, but that glimmer was squashed. I guess the question for the Cubs would be: Where do they go from here? Their GM has fucked them so royally with horrific contracts that they can't hope to make any meaningful changes. Note: Soriano is signed for $20M+ for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Holy shit, you say? I concur. Zambrano and Dempster are old and declining, and they will combine to make 35 Million over the next 3 years. Jeff Samardzja is being paid several million to get hammered by triple A hacks because he was a good wide receiver. We could stop there and it would be a disaster, but we forget that this jackoff has presided over countless drafts that yield precious few position players who have any sort of clue at the plate. I've often wondered where we will find ourselves as Cubs fans when Jim Hendry doesn't have a blank check, and I think we'll soon find out. As for Soriano, he's perhaps the worst position player in the National League, and certainly the worst bargain by a mile. I am not embellishing when I say that. It reminds me of the following exchange on a national radio broadcast of a Cubs game on th 4th of July weekend. Here's the exchange between play by play guy Dan Schulman and color man Chris Singleton(paraphrasing of couse):

Schulman: Soriano has been under a ton of scrutiny lately. He just has not been productive. Fans have been frsustrated with him, especially at the leadoff spot. He's struggled this year. His OBP is below .300, which is very poor, he hasn't hit a home run since(whenever), he doesn't really steal bases anymore since he's had his leg problems, and his defense in the outfield has always been atrocious.

Singleton: Other than that, though, he's a terrific ballplayer!!

Here's what I would suggest Jim Hendry do in order to extricate himself from the mother of all albatross contracts: Offer Alfonso Soriano(and his contract) along with the other team's pick of any 4 prospects in our organization for a pack of jockstraps. If predictably, everyone tells you to go F yourself, tell them you'll throw in Milton Bradley and pay his salary. When they tell you again to pound sand, substitute Derrek Lee in for Bradley and consider yourself the luckiest man on the planet if they agree to it. If that fails, just shoot yourself. Knowing Hendry though, he"d probably survive and sign Joel Piniero or Jeff Weaver to a $48M/ 4 year deal from his hospital bed.

Don't forget that the games start Thurday. I'll mention it in these writeups. As with every year, the original goal is 60%. I've never done it, but come damn close a couple times. The numbered musings were 57.5% last year. We'll see what happens this year. Lines are courtesy of covers as of Tuesday evening.

1. @Boise St -3 1/2 v Oregon:(Thursday) When I first started looking at this game, I was expecting to lean toward Oregon, what with the revenge angle, and my preconceived notion that Boise was fortunate to beat Oregon last year in Eugene. On second glance at the stats and game log from that game, this was not really the case. Boise led after 3 quarters by 21+, and pretty much rope-a doped the 4th quarter enough so that the game got close and Oregon won the statistical battle. This year, Oregon appears to me to be a weaker outfit. They have to replace 4 out of 5 starters on the offensive line, most of their receiving playmakers are gone, and although Chip Kelly has been in the program for a couple of years, he's a rookie coach in his first game on the road. Frankly, if Oregon doesn't completely dominate this game in the trenches and with ther running game, I don't think they have a chance, because Boise is going to score on them. Even last year, when they were the #1 per carry rushing attack in the country, they only averaged 4.4 per rush against Boise in Eugene. Unlike Oregon, I would suggest that Boise is better than last year. Their QB Kellen Moore was efficient to say the least, and carved up the Ducks(pun intended) for 386 yards in the game last year. We all know Chris Peterson is a sharp cookie, so we can expect a coaching edge as well. Throw in the fact that this is the game of the year for Boise, it's on the blue turf, and it's a relatively small number, and I don't think there's any doubt which side is the value side.



2. @Notre Dame -14 v Nevada: First, I have to say that I very much like Nevada's team, and I think they have a competent coach in Chris Ault. A quick perusing of their stats from last year shows a dominant running game coupled with a stout rush defense. However, it's apparent that Nevada has made their living over the past several years on the soft underbelly of the WAC, i.e, the pathetic, helpless types like New Mexico St, Idaho, Utah State, etc, who are handicapped by unfortunate things such as nowheresville locations, puny players and inept football coaches. If you look at the non UNLV non-con performances of Nevada in recent years, it isn't pretty. Offensively, they might be able to pull off some interesting plays early, and they might get some momentum, but their crushing inability to stop the pass will be the death of them, as they have no hope to be able to cover the likes of Floyd and Golden Tate. I think ND almost certainly will pile up 500+ yards in this one, and wins this one going away, something like 49-22.

3. @California -21 1/2 v Maryland: Last year, the Twerps snuck up on Cal and bushwhacked them at 9AM on the Bears body clocks in College Park. Cal got off to a horrendous start, and despite piling up an ungodly amount of yards, could not come back to win. This year, Cal is looking for revenge, and they will most certainly get it, and in bloody fashion. Just about every conceivable edge goes to Cal in this game, from each team's performance on artificial turf, to the motivation, to the time of the game...it's just a bad matchup for Maryland. Cal is significantly better than they were last year, and Maryland looks like they will struggle mightily on both sides of the ball. Let's start with MD's offense. Only two starters returning on the offensive line, and the 3 new guys are all underclassmen. Chris Turner (aka Napolean Dynamite) returns at QB, but he has no playmakers to help him. His RBs are ok, but they will have nowhere to run because Cal will stack up the box. Turner is going to have to carry the mail himself here, and be the reason that Maryland is successful. That ain't gonna work. Defensively, Cal is a different animal at home, and even last year, once they came out of the doldrums, Cal's offense shredded Maryland. Jahvid Best was a forgotten man in the comeback effort last year, that won't be the case this year. Look for 200+ from him. This game is going to be over by halftime.

4. Georgia +6 @ Oklahoma St: I realize that this is possibly the biggest game in Oklahoma St history, and that Okie St has a damn good offense, etc, but looking at this game closely, I just don't see Georgia getting a trip to the woodshed in this game. It's true that in the skill areas Oklahoma St matches up favorably with just about anyone, but there is no way anyone can tell me that when you line up these two teams, Georgia isn't the deeper, more talented team, and by a lot. OSU is not going to be facing one of these "hurry up and score so we can have the ball back" defenses of the Big 12. Georgia will have a distinct edge on both lines, they have depth everywhere, and Mark Richt's teams almost always play well on the road. (He's 30-4 in true road games...you read that right...30-4). I also vividly remember Oregon openeing up a can of whoop ass on Okie St in the second half of their bowl game last year, effectively running them over with a stout run game. Georgia is certainly capable of doing something similar. I'd also add that OSU's starting TE left the team for some reason this week, one of their starting LB's hurt his knee in practice and their top CB Perrish Cox got arrested last week. (Although, knowing Gundy, he'll probably play anyway).In truth, I see this as a 50/50 proposition as to who wins outright, maybe even a lean to the Dawgs. I'll gladly take the points.

5. @UTEP -7 1/2 v Buffalo: For most college football observers amd media types, it's an intense sprint to see who can be the first lapdog to Turner Gill's jock. Yeah, he turned Buffalo around and through wild, mystical luck they ended up winning the MAC title last year, but come on. This is a team that got outgained in conference by the MAC last year. It's true that they opened with UTEP last year and beat them soundly, but UTEP was playing their first game under a new defensive system, had Texas on deck in El Paso, and had to travel about as far as you can travel and stay within the contiguous 48. Now Buffalo has the travel disadvantage, and they're teeing it up in the Sun Bowl with a QB who's never taken a snap. Also, returning starting RB James Starks blew out his ACL in practice, and he was actually one of the best players in the MAC. On the other hand, UTEP has just about everyone returning, including QB Trevor Vittatoe (33/9 ratio) and his two favorite receiving targets. Normally luck evens out year to year for all teams not named USC or Florida(or on the negative side, Illinois), so Buffalo can expect to catch some bad luck, and I think it'll start in week 1.

6. @Wake -2 v Baylor: Ok, let me get this straight. Last year, Wake goes to Waco in the opener(laying 11), and slaps Baylor around for 4 quarters, resulting in a 41-13 victory. The offense that posted 41 pretty much returns intact, but this year, Baylor has to make the cross country trip. So if I'm taking Baylor, I need them to go across the country and beat a well coached BCS conference school with a 4 year starting QB outright to cash? No thanks. The Baylor love is mostly due to QB Robert Griffin, the next "it" guy that everyone wants to say they told you about. He's good, but I'm skeptical tht he can do it by himself. The defense that gave up close to 500 per game on the road last year is going to have to help out, and I don't see it. Also, don't forget that their best player by far last year(and maybe since Singletary??) was OT Jason Smith, the #2 pick in the draft, and he gone. Listen, I like Art Briles a lot, probably even significantly more than the next guy, and Baylor might show up and play well, earn some respect, blah blah blah, but I don't think they're ready to pull off this task. Maybe next year.

7. Navy +22 @Ohio St: First of all, that bonehead Jarod Bryant is gone. Thank the Good Lord for that. I have to say that I hemmed and hawed on this one quite a bit because Navy's backfield is going to be mostly new and their space eating DT got kicked off the team, but I really can't resist. First of all, I am not a fan of Ohio St this year. I AM a fan of Terrelle Pryor, mind you, but I am not a fan of this team. As an aside, Jim Tressel better understand that Pryor needs to be every bit as good as Vince Young was in '05 if OSU is going to do much of anything this year, so he better let him be that good and stop with the conservative bullshit. As has been harped on ad nauseum in these pages over the years, it is damn hard to blow out Navy. They chew up clock and have a knack for forcing the annoying turnover to keep them in the game. Now if you have a high powered passing attack that carves them up like a Texas Tech or something, different story, but this would be especially true for plodding, pedestrian type offenses like Ohio St. OSU has probably the best player in the B10 in Pryor, but other than that, they are limited at the skill positions. WR looks weak, RB slightly better, and their offensive line has been disappointing. Defensively, their playmakers are gone, so they lack experience, and that is not a good thing when you are trying to navigate the Navy triple option. The biggest factor, however, is the USC game that looms next week. Even though they are going to get their asses kicked on their home field, they don't know that yet, so they are excited to get that game ramped up after all the offseason chatter about USC coming to the stupid horseshoe. With Chris Wells getting hurt in week 1 last year, I can see them being very conservative in this one. They only want to get this game out of the way without losing anyone, and would be content with a 10 point victory in my opinion. Even so, at their best, I don't know that they have the chops to work Navy.

8. Stanford -17 @Washington St: I don't need to get into how bad Wazzou was last year, but let's just say that it was truly epic. A masterpiece of futility. They were outgained in conference by 279 yards per game. Teams were routinely covering 40 point spreads by halftime. They made the post Lou Tepper Illinois squads of 97/98 look like the '85 Bears. Now they host Stanford in the opener, a team that has just about all of their contributors back from a pretty decent team last year. This was a 58-0 game last year, and Stanfard looks better. As for WAZZOU, I guess they can't get any worse, but I can tell you that there are no handsome Tim Tebow types on the next puddle jumper to Pullman. Even if there was, I'd still like Stanford.

9. Oklahoma -21 1/2 v BYU: This game is at the new Cowboys stadium, but there will be a shitload of Oklahoma fans there, because as I've heard, there are more OU fans in Dallas than there are in Norman. BYU is a nice outfit. I like Bronco Mendenhall quite a bit, but they are a little bit like your average bully. They can rough up the have-nots of the MWC or in non-conference, or even rebuilding BCS teams, but when it comes down to it, they fall short against the big boys. Oklahoma's offense is going to be obscene, just like it was last year. You can pretty much chalk up 55 or so for the Sooners. So that means Max Hall (who I certainly like, and might lead them to a run of the table from here) will need to have his full mojo working to get them in the 30's in order to cover. That is going to be difficult, however, because they have lost 3 starting offensive linemen for the year since fall practice started. Worse yet, they've had to replace all 3 of these guys wih freshmen. Worse still, OU's defensive line is considered the best in the country, or among the best anyway. If you've heard of the term "pinning their ears back" you get the picture. Check Max Hall for vital signs at halftime.

10. Cincinnati +5 1/2 @Rutgers: This line is moving, so you might have a shot to catch it at 6, but we'll see. The rub against Cincy is that they have to replace all but 1 of their starters on the defensive side of the ball. That's true, and would really be a concern for them if they were playing a dynamic offense, but this Rutgers bunch is anything but. It was good last year due to the throwing prowess of Mike Teel and a strong group of receivers, and it led to a thunderous excursion through the latter part of their schedule, but that is not the case this year. Teel is gone and they have not figured out as of now who their starter will be. Whoever it is, (some guido named Dominic Natale probably) they won't have any experience and are extremely unlikely to have any success throwing the ball to a bunch of nobodies at receiver.The positive thing for the Rutgers offense is that all 5 lineman return, and the fear is that they'll run all over Cincy here. If you're Rutgers you better hope that happens, because it's the only way you're going to move the ball. However, if you look at their schedule from last year hoping to find dominating run performances, you aren't going to find any. 2.4 ypc against Morgan St. 3.1 against Fresno. 2.1 against Cincy. 2.2 against UCONN. 2.8 against WV. 2.4 against Pitt. You get the idea. I'm also not convinced that Brian Kelly won't fashion a good stop unit. Despite a BCS bowl and a solid defense last year, he launched his DC to bring in one of his buddies from Central Michigan. Also, Cincy has had good rush D the past 4 years, and I'm sure they've had to replace people before. I've said all this, and I haven't even touched on Cincy's offense, which should be good, returning an experienced QB in Tony Pike (61% comp, 19/11 ratio), all CUSA receiver Mardy Gilyard, 7 of his top 8 receivers and all their rushing yards. Cincy has a great shot of winning this game outright in my opinion since they have such a big edge offensively. I'll gladly take the points.

11. Miami +6 1/2 (maybe buy to 7) @ Florida St:: This game is almost always close and low scoring. I don't know about the low scoring part, but I can't really differentiate between these two teams. Last year Florida St pretty much dominated the game but thanks to some madcap antics near the end, they had to pull it out at the end. Miami had all kinds of excuses for their performance that day, as Robert Marve(or Kirby Freeman Jr) was playing QB, their best LB got hurt in practice the week of, etc. The truth is, I'm not a big fan of Fla St this year. Their offensive line has been awful for the past 2 years, but is now considered a strength, as is QB Christian Ponder, who was teetering on the edge of basket case status for most of the year last year.They don't have much returning at WR. They do have a legit home run threat at RB in Jermaine Thomas, but I'm just not sold on their offense. Their defense is losing a lot as well, including their two best players, DE Everette Brown, and the media's new Jesus, the Rhodes Scholar Myron Rolle. Miami on the other hand has a nice complement returning on offense, with all of their rushing yards and their top 4 receivers back. I especially like that they'll be handing the keys to QB Jacory Harris, who should have been playing all year last year. I thought he looked very good in their bowl game in SF against a good Cal squad last year, and should vault him into a good performance this year. Almost 7 is just too much for this game. I think the chances are just as good that Miami wins this outright as they are that this game turns into a laugher.


Others: I'm skeptical of what appear to be bad teams laying points. This would be the case for sure with New Mexico St laying 3. Now, the opponent is Idaho, so I guess I can see the thought there, but is there any doubt that Hal Mumme might have left some baggage behind for new coach DeWayne Walker. They have to completely change the offense as well. I'd almost expect just about anyone to come in there and benefit from the chaos, but it's Idaho, so I cant 100% recommend it. I'll be on it though....Same deal with Ball St. New coach, new QB, 4 out of 5 new OL, and they are laying 17?? Again, it's North Texas, but there are reasons for optimism with UNT. The coach's kid takes over at QB, and I guess he was a top 10 QB recruit coming out of college. They've been able to score some points since Todd Dodge took over with his gimmick offense out of the Texas HS ranks, so there is a good possibility that they'll be able to come up to Muncie and run the Cards ragged, but there's all kinds of unknowns in this one. Hell, UNT might win this by 24 for all I know, and maybe Ball St will be similar to the squad they were last year, in which case they win by 30. I doubt that, but there's enough of an unknown to where I can't fully add this one, but I'll be on the spread and the money line for UNT just in case.......I think New Mexico and our pal Mike Locksley are going to struggle a lot off the bat, brand new system on both sides with not much coming back. A&M should whack them, but we're talking about a team that dropped their opener last year to Arky St, so laying two TDs makes me nervous. They should get it done, though. I actually like their offense quite a bit........I was planning on pulling the trigger on NC St, but that spread has gone to 5 1/2, and NC St's bread and butter is as a dog. I fully expect them to handle South Carolina, but the line keeps going up and they won't have their best defensive player Nate Irving, who they were lost without when he was hurt last year. Russell Wilson is good though, not sure if I've mentioned that......I really think Washington has a great chance to hang with LSU at home, and they're getting 17 1/2. They will be a different team than that pile of shit we saw last year, but I don't think I'd classify them as "good" yet. I really like Sarkisian, and they have Locker back so I can see some success in this game, but I'm not sold that they won't fall apart once LSU gets their bearings. I'll be betting them though. Also, look out for clunker performances from Big Ten squads in their MAC warmups: Michigan against WMU(-12 1/2), Wisconsin against NIU(-16 1/2) and Purdue against Toledo(-11). Maybe even Penn St against Akron (-27). That's it for now. Good luck in your endeavors, and God Bless college football.