Week 4 Musings

So as I mentioned, last week was another joke.It got to the point in the middle of the day Saturday where I was just expecting the teams I bet on to rapid fire shit the bed, and rapid fire shit the bed they did. 2-10 for the week, and I have to take liberties on the Cal game to even get to that number. I think everyone got that game at 13 1/2, and I got it at that number immediately after I sent the musings out, so it really should have been stated that way. If you find that questionable, here's a bony middle finger for you..ok? For the year, the record stands at 12-23, with a 5-19 stretch over the past 2 weeks. I realize that everyone has bad weeks, but this has been some pretty ham-fisted handicapping. But no worries!! I've got about 10-12 darts that I'll blindly fire limp-wristedly at the dartbord this week. Check back on Sunday morning for some laughs!!

I've found Notre Dame to be a pretty interesting case this year. I must admit that I am head over heels for their offense, and have even found myself rooting for them in the games I've watched. Of course, my money has been on them in 2 of the 3 weeks, but if you look back in previous editions of this collection of incoherence, you'll remember some strong words of intolerance toward Charlie Weis and his whale-like existence. So many people are SO anti-Notre Dame, oftentimes with no semblance of reason, that the contrarian in me wants to see these people suffer. At this point, the question is whether or not Weis can keep his job if they have any more hiccups after the Michigan loss. The conventional wisdom is that if they lose another game besides the USC game, Weis will have to go. If they can't get Brian Kelly from Cincinnati, I really think that would be a mistake. They've had a ton of bad breaks over the past couple of years, and should still be unbeaten if not for the cornholing they got from the Big Ten ref/umpire/replay combo against Michigan. Now the uncoverable Michael Floyd is out for the year, which will make things tough for them again. However, they'll most likely be in a BCS game anyway this year, and all of the important pieces will be back again next year. My point is this: If they fire Weis just to make a point, they might be jeopardizing what could be an even better team next year. A guy like Brian Kelly could take it and run with it, but if they get shut out of their top choice again and settle for scraps, the future with Weis would be better than the future with someone else.

South Carolina had a nice game last night, and I actually cashed a ticket when the line moved to a point where I could cheaply get 4 1/2. Confidence rising. Now if Missouri can keep it's end of the bargain tonight, we'll finally have a positive start to the week. Here's the rest. In some of these you may need to buy a half point.

2. Southern Miss +14 @ Kansas: Kansas has looked very good so far this year, but this will be the first time that they face a team that has the potential to play to their level on both sides of the ball, and in both phases on offense. Southern Miss is on some people's shit list because they allowed Virginia to hang with them and had to come back late due to early turnovers to pull it out, but the score was deceiving, as was the score of their week 2 game against UCF in which they completely dominated but only won by 7 in a rainstorm. Kansas is unbeaten, and their offense looks very good, but they haven't really played anyone, and Duke actually played them much closer than the score looked like last week. The Devils passed for 300 yards with rotating QBs and piled up almost 400 for the game. It's a step up in class for the Jayhawks here, and I have a feeling that So Miss WR DeAndre Brown, will make his presence felt here. He's a top 5 receiver in the country but is just now rounding back into shape after his gruesome broken leg injury in their bowl game against Troy last year. I think 14 is just too much to lay here.

3. Fresno St +17 @Cincinnati: The Bearcats have looked extremely good so far this year, blowing out Rutgers on the road, winning a tough test at Oregon St and completely destroying whatever patsy they played in week 2. However, they haven't really played anyone that can expose their weakness, which is pass defense. It's somewhat debateable if the Fresno QB Coburn is the guy to do it, but he's thrown effectively on Boise and at Wisconsin in a tough environment, so I think he'll have success here. That's assuming that Ryan Matthews doesn't bust a couple in this game, which is certainly possible for him against any defense. Here is another example of Pat Hill being able to motivate his team to take on a ranked BCS squad for respect. In this spot they've done well in the past, and they really should have beaten Wisconsin in week 2, having played them to a standstill. I really like Cincy's offense, but I don't know if the total package is 17 points better than Wisconsin. Fresno has too many athletes on offense to be shut down by this defense, and Fresno's problems on defense have been stopping the run, not the pass, and Cincy is not a running team. Can Cincy continue to play perfect ball every single week? I'm guessing no, and to blow out Fresno, they'll have to. Lots of line value here.

4. @BC -1 v Wake Forest: I'm still kicking myself for leaving Clemson out of the musings last week. It was pretty obvious that BC was going to have problems in that game offensively, but 55 total yards over 4 quarters??? Wow. So how in the hell can I risk my hard earned money on a team so woefully inept on offense? Good question. Here's the answer: It's true that BC had a horrific showing last week. Think about it though. They played a top notch defense in a rainstorm which delayed the game 3 times. Their QB couldn't even hold on to the ball, and Clemson made sure they stopped the run. It was just a long day. What we can't forget however, is that BC itself is sporting the nations top ranked defense in yards per play. It's true that they have not faced a juggernaut on offense as of yet, but they aren't facing one this week either in Wake. BC has some line girth and some talent at RB, so I can see them moving the ball a bit on Wake's 79th ranked run D. There is no doubt that BC will have a big edge when their defense is on the field. With this offense, I would have a hard time laying any significant points, but when all they have to do is win, I think they can get it done against a pedestrian outfit on both sides of the ball at home when their defense is this solid.

5. Cal -5 1/2 @Oregon: Oregon burned me last week, but it was more about Utah's ineptness than Oregon actually accomplishing anything. They remain one of the worst passing offenses in the country, and Cal is certainly capapble of stopping their run game, which frankly hasn't been all that impressive either, ranked only 59th in the country. There certainly is some danger in backing Cal here, since they have a tough look ahead situation with USC on deck, but the difference in these teams is profound. Cal has beaten Oregon rather comfortably three years in a row, and this Oregon squad is not nearly as good as the previous three. I also think Chip Kelly is in a bad spot matching wits with the Cal staff. It will take a huge effort from Oregon combined with a total shit the bed effort from Cal for this to be anything other than a comfortable win for the Bears.

6. Idaho +17 @Northern Illinois: NIU has been the recipient of some major line love here as a result of their win at Purdue, which was definitely legit and impressive. However, they do not appear to me to be a team that is capable of blowing people out yet. Idaho quietly has looked pretty good this year, especially considering their effort against Washington in which they outgained the Huskies. They also dominated San Diego St and won on the road at New Mexico St, so they have proven themselves worthy of being taken off the "Shit teams I Will Never Bet On" list. Looking at these two teams on paper, they really aren't that distinguishable from each other, as both are in the middle of the pack statistically, and I can actually forsee a couple phases where Idaho has an edge. 17 points is defintitely too much....I actually would give Idaho about 40% chance of pulling off the outright win, especially with NIU being so proud of themselves. I can't foresee a scenario where Idaho gets NIU's best effort. I mean, it's going to be tough for Jerry Kill , as intimidating as he must be, to put the fear of God in his kids over Idaho.

7. TCU +3 @Clemson: Here is TCU's chance to prove to everyone that they belong in the BCS picture. They toyed with Virginia at Virginia a couple weeks ago, finally letting in a couple garbage scores at the end after totally dominating the Hoos for 3 quarters, but now is a chance for the Frogs to really make people stand up and take notice. In this ballgame, we have 2 defenses who appear to be stout. However, it really looks to me like Clemson is going to have all kinds of trouble putting together any offense against TCU. It looks like their starting LT is out, and that is not a good thing when you are about to line up aganst Jerry Hughes and the TCU front 7. They have struggled to protect Kyle Parker and have not gotten the running game going. On the flip side, TCu's offense has been ok, as Andy Dalton is a 3rd year starter and they have some ability to move the ball, as they did against a decent defense in Virginia. I also think there is a solid edge in the coaching department for TCU. At the end of the day, I don;t see where Clemson is going to be able to move the ball much on offense, and if TCU can avoid turnovers and special teams big plays, they look to me to be the better team.

8. Texas Tech +1 @Houston: I don't know that Houston has the ability to notch a huge win over a highly ranked foe, then come back the following week and beat another Big 12 heavy as a favorite in their next game. I don't know about everyone else, but I thought Texas Tech looked pretty good outgaining a Texas team that was supposed to rip their collective heads off in payback for the loss in Lubbock last year. Taylor Potts looked good throwing for 400+ and their defense was more than competent in stopping the Texas running game(or whatever they call it) and Colt McCoy's scrambling chaos. Now they go to Houston, who over the years has proven they can't play defense. I just don't buy Houston as a favorite in this spot, and I think Tech's defense is comparatively better than Houston's, and I think there will be some element of Houston having spent the past two weeks congratualting themselves on the Oklahoma St win.

9. Louisville +14 @Utah: Here's another example of a game where the two teams seem pretty evenly matched. I was thoroughly unimpressed by Utah in their game at Oregon. Their QB is inaccurate and not particularly heady. Their defense looked fair at best. They haven't been able to dispose of weaker teams than Louisville(SJSU and Utah St) by any more than about this number. Louisville is in a bit of a tough spot here coming off the painful loss to Kentucky in a rivalry game and having to travel across the country, but I don't see much of a difference in these teams. Louisville has some nice players on offense including RB Victor Anderson, and their QB Burke showed improvement in the Kentucky game. I think Kentucky is a significantly better team than Utah, and Louisville played them to a standstill. 14 is too many points here.

10 @Mississippi St +13 v LSU: I can only guess that this line will go up by gametime, so I think you can get 13. LSU is in a very tough spot here on the schedule as they have a trip to Georgia and a home date with Florida on deck. Offensively, they have not been very good, and should already be saddled with a loss if Washington didn't completely forget to cover receivers on two free TDs in the second half of that game. MSU has a much more competent coah on board now in Dan Mullenthan the previous dude, and they have already shown some signs, as they dismantled Vandy last week on the road. I think they can play good enough defense to stay close in this one, and the skill guys in place, Dixon, Ducre and QB Tyson Lee all had some success in Death Valley last year in a night game. I doubt they can pull off the outright win, and ideally I'd like 14, but crazier things have happened.

11. Iowa +10 @ Penn St: Yes, it's a white out, and all these nuts in Happy Valley will be drunk, but you ned some actual eveidence on the field to justify laying 10 to a well coached legitimately good team. Penn St has played absolutely nobody so far this year, and despite that, they have had a rough time running the ball. Iowa will certainly be the best defensive squad they have played yet, so I would expect them to struggle running it, especially since no receivers have seperated themselves from the pack as any kind of threat that Iowa needs to be worried about. Defensively, they have been good, but both of their good linebackers(Bowman and Lee) are hurting, and Lee probably won't play. Iowa is going to have a tough time scoring on them anyway, but I think they are too good a team to get double digits, especially when Penn St hasn't really proven anything. Historically, Ferentz is 6-2 against the Nits to boot.

Others: I like Miami a lot this week. It's a tough jaunt up to Blacksburg but did you know that Va Tech is 111th against the run so far this year? Throw in the fact that they can't throw the ball and I think Miami has a great chance to win. They are certainly due for a clunker, so I am not ready to fully recommend them as a 3 point favorite in this spot.....I think Colorado St can stay within the 17 at BYU. BYU certainly will have a hangover from the huge disappointment f last week(notice a lot of failed musings here), and Colorado St can throw the ball a bit, which is something BYu has struggled with. I can see a scenario where BYU has to outscore them late.....I also think Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) bounces back at home and handles North Carolina. Carolina is too shitty of a team to be undefeated after week 4. Tech has a revenge angle on them as well, and their main weakness(pass defense) shouldn't be too threatened in this one....Illinois will probably lay an egg and set the stage for a collapse. Hopefully not though....I don't think ECU has the offense to be favored over a competent defensive team like UCF by double digits. UCF has no offense either, but if they catch a couple breaks, ECU could lose that one outright.....I also think Kentucky is much better than they showed last week against Louisville, and Florida just doesn't appear to be as explosive without Harvin and Louis Murphy. I thought it was telling when they had to run Tebow so often in that Tennessee game. Kentucky has a shot to hang with them in this one catching 22.....I also have a hunch on Purdue +7 against Notre Dame. ND's defense hasn't been that great, so Purdue has a chance to be successful, they'll be fired up off the NIU debacle, and ND is really banged up on offense, with Floyd out, Claussen hobbling and Armando Allen questionable. It'll be asking a lot for them to blow out Purdue in this spot at only about 75%. Losing Floyd was a very big deal, nd Purdue's big strength on defense is their secondary.

That's it for this week. Let's hope for a turnaround.