College Football Madcapper

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Thoughts on Hawaii/LaTech.

Things we should have known:

A team that was physically slapped around by Navy's weakling defense would be able to run it at will on Hawaii.

A team that can't cover anyone and had registered a grand total of 2 sacks would pressure the
top rated passing game in the country on just about every down and at the same time cover 7 receivers at once like a blanket.

Hawaii would refuse to show up and collectively fall into the fetal position immediately after performing the Haka.

The Heisman trophy should be renamed after Daniel Porter.

The Patriots should fire Belichick and immediately hire his mentor Derek Dooley.

Greg McMackin is a drooling doofus.

Had I known all that, I'd still probably figure that 6 points was too much for La tech to cover in this game.

Week 5 Weeknight Musings

Hawaii +5 1/2 @Louisiana Tech: Generally this is an interesting week because some teams don't venture on the road until they reach conference play, and the results from their cozy home appearances can be taken with a grain of salt. In this case, Hawaii has been living on the road, so we can look with full confidence at their results. I'd even venture to say that there is risk in backing Hawaii here because of their travel situation. This has to be the longest road trip made by any team in the country that's made somewhat regularly. However, having said that, the difference between these teams looks substantial in my opinion. Hawaii is the number 1 pass efficiency offense in the country, and ranks #1 in total offense as well, and it isn't even all that close, as they average a half yard more per play than anyone else. They've done it against UNLV and Washington St, both on the road. Neither is a heavyweight, but WAZZOu especially isn't as bad as last year, despite the likely end result of their record. la Tech has been and remains a work in process in pass defense. I think they'll struggle to stop Greg Salas the WR for the "bows, and they'll likely have to outscore Hawaii in order to win this. I think the wrong team is favored here, and the points have gotten significant. I'll take the 5 1/2.

More to come later....

Friday, September 25, 2009

Week 4 Musings

So as I mentioned, last week was another joke.It got to the point in the middle of the day Saturday where I was just expecting the teams I bet on to rapid fire shit the bed, and rapid fire shit the bed they did. 2-10 for the week, and I have to take liberties on the Cal game to even get to that number. I think everyone got that game at 13 1/2, and I got it at that number immediately after I sent the musings out, so it really should have been stated that way. If you find that questionable, here's a bony middle finger for you..ok? For the year, the record stands at 12-23, with a 5-19 stretch over the past 2 weeks. I realize that everyone has bad weeks, but this has been some pretty ham-fisted handicapping. But no worries!! I've got about 10-12 darts that I'll blindly fire limp-wristedly at the dartbord this week. Check back on Sunday morning for some laughs!!

I've found Notre Dame to be a pretty interesting case this year. I must admit that I am head over heels for their offense, and have even found myself rooting for them in the games I've watched. Of course, my money has been on them in 2 of the 3 weeks, but if you look back in previous editions of this collection of incoherence, you'll remember some strong words of intolerance toward Charlie Weis and his whale-like existence. So many people are SO anti-Notre Dame, oftentimes with no semblance of reason, that the contrarian in me wants to see these people suffer. At this point, the question is whether or not Weis can keep his job if they have any more hiccups after the Michigan loss. The conventional wisdom is that if they lose another game besides the USC game, Weis will have to go. If they can't get Brian Kelly from Cincinnati, I really think that would be a mistake. They've had a ton of bad breaks over the past couple of years, and should still be unbeaten if not for the cornholing they got from the Big Ten ref/umpire/replay combo against Michigan. Now the uncoverable Michael Floyd is out for the year, which will make things tough for them again. However, they'll most likely be in a BCS game anyway this year, and all of the important pieces will be back again next year. My point is this: If they fire Weis just to make a point, they might be jeopardizing what could be an even better team next year. A guy like Brian Kelly could take it and run with it, but if they get shut out of their top choice again and settle for scraps, the future with Weis would be better than the future with someone else.

South Carolina had a nice game last night, and I actually cashed a ticket when the line moved to a point where I could cheaply get 4 1/2. Confidence rising. Now if Missouri can keep it's end of the bargain tonight, we'll finally have a positive start to the week. Here's the rest. In some of these you may need to buy a half point.

2. Southern Miss +14 @ Kansas: Kansas has looked very good so far this year, but this will be the first time that they face a team that has the potential to play to their level on both sides of the ball, and in both phases on offense. Southern Miss is on some people's shit list because they allowed Virginia to hang with them and had to come back late due to early turnovers to pull it out, but the score was deceiving, as was the score of their week 2 game against UCF in which they completely dominated but only won by 7 in a rainstorm. Kansas is unbeaten, and their offense looks very good, but they haven't really played anyone, and Duke actually played them much closer than the score looked like last week. The Devils passed for 300 yards with rotating QBs and piled up almost 400 for the game. It's a step up in class for the Jayhawks here, and I have a feeling that So Miss WR DeAndre Brown, will make his presence felt here. He's a top 5 receiver in the country but is just now rounding back into shape after his gruesome broken leg injury in their bowl game against Troy last year. I think 14 is just too much to lay here.

3. Fresno St +17 @Cincinnati: The Bearcats have looked extremely good so far this year, blowing out Rutgers on the road, winning a tough test at Oregon St and completely destroying whatever patsy they played in week 2. However, they haven't really played anyone that can expose their weakness, which is pass defense. It's somewhat debateable if the Fresno QB Coburn is the guy to do it, but he's thrown effectively on Boise and at Wisconsin in a tough environment, so I think he'll have success here. That's assuming that Ryan Matthews doesn't bust a couple in this game, which is certainly possible for him against any defense. Here is another example of Pat Hill being able to motivate his team to take on a ranked BCS squad for respect. In this spot they've done well in the past, and they really should have beaten Wisconsin in week 2, having played them to a standstill. I really like Cincy's offense, but I don't know if the total package is 17 points better than Wisconsin. Fresno has too many athletes on offense to be shut down by this defense, and Fresno's problems on defense have been stopping the run, not the pass, and Cincy is not a running team. Can Cincy continue to play perfect ball every single week? I'm guessing no, and to blow out Fresno, they'll have to. Lots of line value here.

4. @BC -1 v Wake Forest: I'm still kicking myself for leaving Clemson out of the musings last week. It was pretty obvious that BC was going to have problems in that game offensively, but 55 total yards over 4 quarters??? Wow. So how in the hell can I risk my hard earned money on a team so woefully inept on offense? Good question. Here's the answer: It's true that BC had a horrific showing last week. Think about it though. They played a top notch defense in a rainstorm which delayed the game 3 times. Their QB couldn't even hold on to the ball, and Clemson made sure they stopped the run. It was just a long day. What we can't forget however, is that BC itself is sporting the nations top ranked defense in yards per play. It's true that they have not faced a juggernaut on offense as of yet, but they aren't facing one this week either in Wake. BC has some line girth and some talent at RB, so I can see them moving the ball a bit on Wake's 79th ranked run D. There is no doubt that BC will have a big edge when their defense is on the field. With this offense, I would have a hard time laying any significant points, but when all they have to do is win, I think they can get it done against a pedestrian outfit on both sides of the ball at home when their defense is this solid.

5. Cal -5 1/2 @Oregon: Oregon burned me last week, but it was more about Utah's ineptness than Oregon actually accomplishing anything. They remain one of the worst passing offenses in the country, and Cal is certainly capapble of stopping their run game, which frankly hasn't been all that impressive either, ranked only 59th in the country. There certainly is some danger in backing Cal here, since they have a tough look ahead situation with USC on deck, but the difference in these teams is profound. Cal has beaten Oregon rather comfortably three years in a row, and this Oregon squad is not nearly as good as the previous three. I also think Chip Kelly is in a bad spot matching wits with the Cal staff. It will take a huge effort from Oregon combined with a total shit the bed effort from Cal for this to be anything other than a comfortable win for the Bears.

6. Idaho +17 @Northern Illinois: NIU has been the recipient of some major line love here as a result of their win at Purdue, which was definitely legit and impressive. However, they do not appear to me to be a team that is capable of blowing people out yet. Idaho quietly has looked pretty good this year, especially considering their effort against Washington in which they outgained the Huskies. They also dominated San Diego St and won on the road at New Mexico St, so they have proven themselves worthy of being taken off the "Shit teams I Will Never Bet On" list. Looking at these two teams on paper, they really aren't that distinguishable from each other, as both are in the middle of the pack statistically, and I can actually forsee a couple phases where Idaho has an edge. 17 points is defintitely too much....I actually would give Idaho about 40% chance of pulling off the outright win, especially with NIU being so proud of themselves. I can't foresee a scenario where Idaho gets NIU's best effort. I mean, it's going to be tough for Jerry Kill , as intimidating as he must be, to put the fear of God in his kids over Idaho.

7. TCU +3 @Clemson: Here is TCU's chance to prove to everyone that they belong in the BCS picture. They toyed with Virginia at Virginia a couple weeks ago, finally letting in a couple garbage scores at the end after totally dominating the Hoos for 3 quarters, but now is a chance for the Frogs to really make people stand up and take notice. In this ballgame, we have 2 defenses who appear to be stout. However, it really looks to me like Clemson is going to have all kinds of trouble putting together any offense against TCU. It looks like their starting LT is out, and that is not a good thing when you are about to line up aganst Jerry Hughes and the TCU front 7. They have struggled to protect Kyle Parker and have not gotten the running game going. On the flip side, TCu's offense has been ok, as Andy Dalton is a 3rd year starter and they have some ability to move the ball, as they did against a decent defense in Virginia. I also think there is a solid edge in the coaching department for TCU. At the end of the day, I don;t see where Clemson is going to be able to move the ball much on offense, and if TCU can avoid turnovers and special teams big plays, they look to me to be the better team.

8. Texas Tech +1 @Houston: I don't know that Houston has the ability to notch a huge win over a highly ranked foe, then come back the following week and beat another Big 12 heavy as a favorite in their next game. I don't know about everyone else, but I thought Texas Tech looked pretty good outgaining a Texas team that was supposed to rip their collective heads off in payback for the loss in Lubbock last year. Taylor Potts looked good throwing for 400+ and their defense was more than competent in stopping the Texas running game(or whatever they call it) and Colt McCoy's scrambling chaos. Now they go to Houston, who over the years has proven they can't play defense. I just don't buy Houston as a favorite in this spot, and I think Tech's defense is comparatively better than Houston's, and I think there will be some element of Houston having spent the past two weeks congratualting themselves on the Oklahoma St win.

9. Louisville +14 @Utah: Here's another example of a game where the two teams seem pretty evenly matched. I was thoroughly unimpressed by Utah in their game at Oregon. Their QB is inaccurate and not particularly heady. Their defense looked fair at best. They haven't been able to dispose of weaker teams than Louisville(SJSU and Utah St) by any more than about this number. Louisville is in a bit of a tough spot here coming off the painful loss to Kentucky in a rivalry game and having to travel across the country, but I don't see much of a difference in these teams. Louisville has some nice players on offense including RB Victor Anderson, and their QB Burke showed improvement in the Kentucky game. I think Kentucky is a significantly better team than Utah, and Louisville played them to a standstill. 14 is too many points here.

10 @Mississippi St +13 v LSU: I can only guess that this line will go up by gametime, so I think you can get 13. LSU is in a very tough spot here on the schedule as they have a trip to Georgia and a home date with Florida on deck. Offensively, they have not been very good, and should already be saddled with a loss if Washington didn't completely forget to cover receivers on two free TDs in the second half of that game. MSU has a much more competent coah on board now in Dan Mullenthan the previous dude, and they have already shown some signs, as they dismantled Vandy last week on the road. I think they can play good enough defense to stay close in this one, and the skill guys in place, Dixon, Ducre and QB Tyson Lee all had some success in Death Valley last year in a night game. I doubt they can pull off the outright win, and ideally I'd like 14, but crazier things have happened.

11. Iowa +10 @ Penn St: Yes, it's a white out, and all these nuts in Happy Valley will be drunk, but you ned some actual eveidence on the field to justify laying 10 to a well coached legitimately good team. Penn St has played absolutely nobody so far this year, and despite that, they have had a rough time running the ball. Iowa will certainly be the best defensive squad they have played yet, so I would expect them to struggle running it, especially since no receivers have seperated themselves from the pack as any kind of threat that Iowa needs to be worried about. Defensively, they have been good, but both of their good linebackers(Bowman and Lee) are hurting, and Lee probably won't play. Iowa is going to have a tough time scoring on them anyway, but I think they are too good a team to get double digits, especially when Penn St hasn't really proven anything. Historically, Ferentz is 6-2 against the Nits to boot.

Others: I like Miami a lot this week. It's a tough jaunt up to Blacksburg but did you know that Va Tech is 111th against the run so far this year? Throw in the fact that they can't throw the ball and I think Miami has a great chance to win. They are certainly due for a clunker, so I am not ready to fully recommend them as a 3 point favorite in this spot.....I think Colorado St can stay within the 17 at BYU. BYU certainly will have a hangover from the huge disappointment f last week(notice a lot of failed musings here), and Colorado St can throw the ball a bit, which is something BYu has struggled with. I can see a scenario where BYU has to outscore them late.....I also think Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) bounces back at home and handles North Carolina. Carolina is too shitty of a team to be undefeated after week 4. Tech has a revenge angle on them as well, and their main weakness(pass defense) shouldn't be too threatened in this one....Illinois will probably lay an egg and set the stage for a collapse. Hopefully not though....I don't think ECU has the offense to be favored over a competent defensive team like UCF by double digits. UCF has no offense either, but if they catch a couple breaks, ECU could lose that one outright.....I also think Kentucky is much better than they showed last week against Louisville, and Florida just doesn't appear to be as explosive without Harvin and Louis Murphy. I thought it was telling when they had to run Tebow so often in that Tennessee game. Kentucky has a shot to hang with them in this one catching 22.....I also have a hunch on Purdue +7 against Notre Dame. ND's defense hasn't been that great, so Purdue has a chance to be successful, they'll be fired up off the NIU debacle, and ND is really banged up on offense, with Floyd out, Claussen hobbling and Armando Allen questionable. It'll be asking a lot for them to blow out Purdue in this spot at only about 75%. Losing Floyd was a very big deal, nd Purdue's big strength on defense is their secondary.

That's it for this week. Let's hope for a turnaround.

Week 4 weeknight musings

Yeah, if you give a shit anymore, I'll throw out some more of this drivel. Anybody that can suck ass as bad as I did last week definitely has a lot of nerve getting up in the morning, let alone spewing more of the same sewage as the previous two weeks. I'll recap in the full complement that you'll see tomorrow. As for tonight's game, I originally liked Ole Miss at such a short number, but I'm going to lay off. The numbers actually point to a pretty close game, especially in Columbia, and I think South Carolina is improving a bit, having found a couple playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Throw in the fact that this team beat Ole Miss in Oxford last year, outgaining them in the process, and expecting Ole Miss to walk in there and win strictly because they are ranked #4 and had a nice year last year is somewhat misguided. Having said that, the Cocks haven't beaten a top 5 team in something like 100 years, so the assumption would be that they'll find a way to botch this opportunity as well. That being the case, a field goal is not enough value for me here. I'd lean in that direction in the event a gun was pointed at my head.

Friday:

Missouri -7 @Nevada: Yeah yeah, the pistol is cool, Colin Kaepernick is athletic, they can run it on Southern Utah, blah blah blah. I'm sick and tired of Nevada sucking against BCS programs, and I'm ready to profit from it further after cashing on their trip to South Bend in week 1. You remember week 1 right? Back when I had some semblance of a clue what in the hell I was doing? Whatever.... Their coach, Chris Ault is a knowledgeable coach, but bad breaks follow him, and he apparently isn't as good as I think he is because he keeps getting his ass kicked in these spots. They should have run all over Maryland in their bowl game last year and instead got run over themselves by a team that hadn't done it to anyone else all year. They were 120th against the pass last year, and SURPRISE they are 120th again this year. Missouri will score at will on them, especially coming off a couple of lackluster performances after steamrolling Illinois. These two teams met last year, and Mizzou won 69-17. Mizzou also has had success stopping the run, which is Nevada's bread and butter. Well, at least it's their bread and butter against shitty teams. Their bread and butter against actual good teams appears to be bending over and hoping their collective rectums remain intact. Perhaps the alternate universe will continue to exist and they'll sack up and lift a finger to provide some passing game resistance, but I highly doubt it.

More to come later if you want to set fire to your electronic cash.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Week 3 Musings

Well, there was another bad start to a week. Good Lord do I hate when that happens.....I might just stop listing the weeknight games on principle. Or maybe I'll just stop betting on Georgia Tech. My rapture toward Paul Johnson probably needs to be tempered a bit, since he presided over a team that couldn't get out of it's own way tonight. They lost 33-17, but it wasn't even that close. They didn't cover a soul all night, they couldn't pressure the quarterback and they couldn't tackle. That makes it tough. Just ugly. As was previously mentioned, last week was not good. 3-9 to lead to a year to date record of 10-13, which is the first time the musings have ever been under .500 for the year. I aim to correct that this week, but we're off to a bad start with that misguided play from tonight.

No more small talk...it's on like Donkey Kong.

2. Cal -14 @Minnesota: If a team can make Greg Paulus look competent after a 4 year layoff in his first start, what will the Cal offense do to that team. Minnesota was very lucky to beat AirForce last week,and they have not really gotten going on offense yet this year, which is mostly due to a change in offensive approach to match their new stadium. More of a gritty, west coast offense for the outdoor elements I guess. Since their offense used to be rather effective, that seems like a mistake to me. Minny will be facing what will certainly be the best defense they have faced thus far, and it goes without saying that they'll be up against superior athletes on the offensive side as well. Big struggles should be in the offing for the Gophers. There is a slight concern with the starting time, which will be 9am on the Cal body clocks, but there is too much of a talent/coaching edge for Cal here to ignore. Final note: These two teams sport the worst uniform combinations this side of Eugene, Oregon. Cal likes to go with those hideous gold jerseys and dark blue pants with the cartoonish bear claws on the shoulders. Minnesota counters with all gold pajamas. Why football players playing a violent sport insist on dressing as though they are making a trip to The Manhole on North Halsted rather than a football field is beyond me. Thankfully, Cal will have to wear white.

3. Utah +5 @Oregon: Having watched Oregon in both of their games this year, I would peg myself as mostly unimpressed with their overall squad. Against Boise, there was absolutely nothing on the offensive side of the ball that indicated anything remotely positive. They looked uninspired, disorganized, slow, and after the game, deranged. Against Purdue, on heir home field against a drop in defensive class, they looked marginally better, but by no means impressive. Purdue handed them that game with 2 defensive scores and a botched extra point. Defensively, Utah will be the best group the Ducks have faced yet, and unless Chip Kelly has suddenly figured it out, I expect more of the same. I think the guy is a complete jackass, but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to a very good ATS record as a dog. I like Utah's chances for the outright victory here.

4. @Virginia Tech -5 v Nebraska: It's true that VT was clearly outclassed in their opener with Alabama, but that wasn't all that surprising, given Bama's prowess on defense. Nebraska has looked good so far this year, and their new QB Zac Lee has actually led the charge, but this is a very tough spot. We all know how tough the Gobblers can be at home in Blacksburg, and this team went into Lincoln last year and handled the Huskers with Joe Ganz at QB. Offensively, the normally pedestrian VT attack actually looked pretty good, with Tyrod Taylor uncharacteristically converting 3rd downs at an efficient clip. This year, Nebraska travels all the way to Blacksburg in what will be Lee's first ever road start. Also, Va tech is much more explosive than they were last year on offense with the addition of two home run threats in the backfield in David Wilson and Ryan Williams, who between them rushed for almost 12 ypc on 28 carries last week against a Marshall team that many thought had a pretty good front 7.I think it is asking a heck of a lot for Zac Lee to come in and be effective in this environment, and if he isn't, I don't think there's a scenario where Nebraska can stay within a score.

5. @Baylor -10 1/2 v UCONN: I would normally declare caveat emptor in instances in which you are laying points against UCONN, but this week is a very tough spot for them. Their starting QB, Zack Frazer is injured and will not play, and their backup, who hasn't taken a snap, has been sick all week and hasn't practiced. Their third stringer is a true freshman who they plan to redshirt, so they will most likely force the backup in there. This is a long trip for UCONN, and they're facing a team that played them to a standstill early last year in Storrs. I don't have to repeat how impressed I was with Baylor's victory in week 1 at Wake. Now they are at home, and get to play in front of a crowd that will be glad to see them for once. UCONN's usually stout defense will be without their top linebacker, so look for Art Briles to expose the UCONN defense. Tough, tough spot for UCONN, especially after that rough loss on the late safety last week at home.

6. @BYU -7 v Florida St: I don't know if any of you had a chance to watch Florida St's Labor Day tilt with Miami. It was a hell of a game. However, one thing that was obvious was that Florida State showed very little interest in covering any of Miami's receivers. That does not bode well against a squad that can throw it with the precision that BYU can. Harvey Unga will also be back, so BYU now goes 3 deep at RB. Chistian Ponder looked pretty good against Miami, but that was mostly against the soft underbelly of Miami's cover none scheme, that seems to be gaining popularity in the college game now that it's run it's course of terrible coverage in the NFL. I'm not impressed with FSU's receivers, and Ponder will need a distinct advantage in that area in order to put up the passing numbers that will be needed to stay in this one.The atmosphere in Provo will be rocking, as this is their first home game this year, and the Mormon faithful will be eager to greet their returning heroes and honored guests with ear splitting screeches. You can still get this at 7 in some spots, but it's moving up. I'll probably buy it back to 7 in any case.

7. Arkansas -2 v Georgia: Surprisingly, this line has moved against public sentiment, which is 60-65% on Georgia's side. Despite having already played Oklahoma St, I would dare say that the Hogs will be the best offense the Dawgs have faced so far this year. Arkansas truly is loaded with skill position talent, and there is no doubt that Bobby Petrino knows what he is doing offensively. The bad news for Georgia is that while they have had their hands full with OSU and South Carolina the past 2 weeks, Arkansas has been laying in wait off an open date, preparing all the while. Ryan Mallett looked great in their first game, and it's not like it's his first rodeo, as he played in several games as a true frosh at Michigan in '07.Georgia gave up yards and points to South Carolina last week, and as I've mentioned, this Hog offense is much better than Spurrier's pop gun attack under the buffoonish Stephen Garcia. Georgia still hasn't figured it out on the offensive side either. If they don't score points here, they are in trouble.

8. Buffalo +4 1/2 @Central Florida: This UCF team garnered a grand total of 171 yards last week at Southern Miss. Prior to that against Samford, they racked up 282 on the way to being outgained. Buffalo appears to have found themselves a QB in Zack Maynard, who riddled Pitt for 400+ passing yards last week. They also feature Naaman Roosevelt, probably the best receiver in the MAC and have a second receiver who pulled down 12 balls for 145 yards last week. UCF didn't do much to stop the pass in either of their games, so the possibility exists that Buffalo has their way with the Knights in that facet of the game. I also expect Buffalo to do what every other team that plays UCF has done: Throw your defense out there for 3 plays and return the punt. If Buffalo doesn't turn it over, I think they can win this game easily. Looks like the wrong team is favored here.

9. Mississippi St +9 @Vanderbilt: This is a straight fade of Vandy, wh is absolutely woeful as a favorite in any and all scenarios. I looked to see when the last time Vandy was a 9 point favorite in a conference game, and you have to go all the way back to one of the Cutler teams ('05) against Kentucky, and they lost that one outright. MSU is certainly no juggernaut, but just last year, they knocked off a then unbeaten Vandy squad in Starkville 17-14, holding the 'Dores to only 107 total yards (yes, that's right, 107 total yards) in the process. Offensively, this MSU squad under Dan Mullen is better offensively than the comatose attack that Sly Croom trotted out there last year. I just can't make any case at all for laying those kind of points with such an offensively challenged Vandy team. I know oddsmakers were impressed with Vandy's hanging with LSU last week in the rain in Death Valley, but I for one will be looking hard for opportunities to fade LSU, as their offense has looked about as sharp as toilet log so far this year.

10. San Diego St -3 @Idaho: This is a vast public play, but I really can't see how Idaho can keep SDSU from racking up a shitload of points. QB Lindley has looked very good for SDSU, and he rolled up 400+ passing yards against the Vandals last year in a laugher. SDSU's receivers are big and talented, and Idaho's secondary guys are puny and slow. Bad matchup. It almost looks a little too obvious, but there is a very solid coaching staff in place now with the Aztecs with Brady Hoke calling the shots along with Rocky Long(former NM coach) and Al Borges (former Auburn OC in their undefeated season). I just can't see them blowing this game when they have such a clear advantage on the offensive side of the ball.

11. Navy +7 1/2 @ Pitt: As usual, when I can get Navy at more than a TD against something other than elite competition, I'm generally a taker. The nice thing about navy so far this year is their improvement on defense. In the past, you started to get nervous if they had an open possession(which happened a lot last year when resident jackoff Jarrod Bryant was behind center) but this year, they've looked pretty good. They even covered a sizable number last week against a decent Louisiana Tech squad. Now they match up with Pitt, who had all kinds of trouble stopping Buffalo last week. (500+ yards allowed). They dropped 54 of their own, but that was aided greatly by some special teams miscues and catastrophic turnovers by the Bulls. I really am not sold on Pitt's offense, and now that Ricky Dobbs is running the show, Navy should be able to move the ball as usual. Pitt had success last year against them, but mostly due to Bryant's insistence on sucking all day long. I'll take the points with the clock eating squad. Wanny factor applies here as well.

12. @Kentucky -14 v Louisville: The more I look at this game, the more I see a blowout. I at first was surprised to see such a large spread, but it might be justified. Kentucky is much improved on offense. They have good skill position people at RB(Locke) and WR (Cobb). The absolutely destroyed Miami(OH) in week 1 at a neutral site, and have been waiting for the Cards in the 2 weeks since to open a refurbished stadium. Last year, Kentucky won at Louisville 27-2 and it was only thanks to Louisville's defense that is was that close. 3rd defensive system in 3 years for a personnel group that has always struggled. Kentucky is better than last year, and Louisville is certainly worse. The Cards have a couple of decent skill guys in RB Anderson and WR Beaumont,but they have nothing at QB. To whit, new QB Justin Burke threw 2 picks with no TDs against Indiana St. Indiana St might be one of the worst 1-AA schools in the country. Here's a little score info. I noticed that SE Missouri St lost to Cincinnati 70-3 a couple weeks ago, so I checked their schedule and results to see if they had any other horrific events. I actually fond that they beat Quincy (IL) College 72-3. Quincy believe it or not, beat Indiana St. Eastern shut them out 31-0. Louisville beat them only 30-10. Kentucky is going to name the score in this one, and Steve Kragthorpe might be shown the door immediately after.

Others......Tulsa is getting 18 1/2 at Oklahoma. I'm not sure that Tulsa is as good as they have been the past couple of years, but I know that Oklahoma is nowhere near as good as they have been. Landry Jones got comfortable against all time cupcake Idaho St last week, but they might struggle against a real team this week. They can score too..Tulsa that is...I also like WAZZOU to finally get a win against SMU this week. They are making the move to a somewhat capable QB in Marshall Loebestaal and they are getting 6 at home. They hung with Stanford a couple weeks ago in Pullman and piled up some yards on Hawaii last week, so they might be ready to get a win. If they don't it's probably 0-12 for them. SMu shouldn't be favored on the road at this point. Check back in a couple years on that, but not now.....I have sworn off Clemson as a favorite, but I like their spot this week welcoming BC into Death Valley. It's under a TD now, and BC has a new QB and a new coach, normally not a good combination inthe first road game. BC has done ok against very weak competition so far, but I think their lack of a competent passing game will sting them this week......Ohio St is inthe ultimate let down spot,traveling to Cleveland to play Toledo and laying 21. Toledo has put up a staggering amount of yards thus far, so if OSU doesn't bing their A game they might struggle in this one. If they commit to the run, they'll be successful though....I think 17 1/2 points is too much in the Stanfoard San Jose St game, since Stanford is a bit overrated and SJSU has played lights out competition. It's a rivalry game and SJSU's personnel matches up well with Stanford. Harbaugh is very conscious of the spread though, so there's always an issue there. I also have a hunch that Hawaii will throw it all over the field on UNLV this week. They're getting 7 1/2, so I think that might be a good number for them if they can keep up their good passing numbers. That's it for now. Have a great week and good luck if necessary.

Week 3 Weeknight Musing

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Week 2 Musings

I must admit that I am still very melancholy about that game last night. It definitely proves a couple lessons. First, never mentally cash a ticket until the gun goes off. When you do that, you are begging for trouble. Secondly, never be so bold as to proclaim out loud to someone else that "this game is over." You'll regret it later, as I am now. I was in South Bend/Chicago yesterday, so I was listening to that game on XM on my way back down I-65 to Indy. I Love XM by the way. The entire time I was listening, the game went beautifully, just as expected. Then I call my Mom to check how she was doing after an outpatient procedure. She was doing great, but I made the mistake of saying..."Tell Dad that he's all good on the Georgia Tech game. That game is over". As I hang up the phone, Clemson gets a 1 play TD drive. I wasn't worried at the time, but I should have known that I put a major whammy on the Jackets at that moment. Picking this shit is hard enough. I've learned my lesson.

I also wanted to make some quick notes about the beloved Illini, as I haven't said anything about them yet this year. I have to admit that I was pretty optimistic about them prior to week 1. Almost everyone back from last year, senior QB, tons of skill position talent, good offensive and defensive lines, etc. Statistically, they were better than the Rose Bowl year last year, so they were due some breaks. I had some concerns about a secondary that is completely feeble at playing the ball, and thus incapable of getting any interceptions or covering acceptably, but maybe they'd figure something out. Then I watched what was perhaps the worst display of football I have ever seen in my life. I could only make it through about half the game, but it was enough. That is the worst coached team in the country. By far. Bar none. Put it this way, based on that game, I would drive to Morgantown and beg Bill Stewart to take over the reins if given the choice between whatever Alfalfa style coachspeak he might bring in and whatever it was that Zook and his meathead staff put forth last week. Believe it or not, in the postgame locker room, the rumor was that many Illinois players said that they were surprised at how good Missouri was. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt??? You are coming off a 5-7 season and you're playing a team that has owned you for the past 6 games in a row, and you think you can just roll your helmets out there in a dome in their backyard? Had I known they had that attitude, and the coaches would do such a woeful job of getting them mentally prepared to play, I would have thrown 10 units on the money line. Anyway, Zook needs to go. They play ISU this week, which they can't possibly screw up, then get a bye, then play Ohio St, Penn St and Michigan St all in a row. If they end up 1-4, you might see a 1-11 campaign, because Zook would need to do the coaching job of the century to get the team's collective dobbers back up, and he ain't capable of that. Bringing in ath-u-leets, yes, but coaching them, no.

Week 1 was good, 7-4 thanks to a couple of nice wins on Monday. The lateness of the week combined with some travel made this week a tough one to handicap, though, so I'm getting a late start on this. As for last week, I really can't complain. The games I lost, I would probably bet again. You just have to tip your cap to Baylor, Buffalo(although they were very fortunate) and especially BYU. Even if Bradford didn't get hurt, BYU was outplaying them and would never have failed to cover the 21. They look like a different team from last year, kudos to them. On to this week. Unfortunately, we're 0-1 to start.

2. @Iowa St +6 1/2 v Iowa: Everybody saw that Iowa struggled with Northern Iowa last week, and that in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of D-1AA schools that can play, and sometimes D-1 schools get surprised, because they are almost never capable of bringing their A game to a 1-AA foe. Most of the time, an A game isn't needed, but against some of these teams(like Richmond, or UNI for example) it is if you don't want to have them embarrass you. However, Iowa really did not look good, and I don't think it's due to them just not being ready. They don't have a running back because their replacement for Shonn Greene, Jewel Hampton(Indy guy) is out for the year. They ran it at 4 ypc with the new backup, and Stanzi was not very effective in his first time out this year, not that he is the reason they do well on offense anyway. UNI outgained them, and they did so by using a tricky offense with a mobile (albeit fat) QB, who threw for 270 on them. Now they travel to Ames to face their little sister, Iowa St. In the last 5 meetings, ISU has has covered all of them. The last two times Iowa has traveled to Ames, they've lost 23-3 as a 9 pt favorite and 17-15 as a 17 point favorite. Last year, Iowa St outgained Iowa in Iowa City by 85 yards and the Hawkeyes failed to crack 250 total yards WITH SHonn Greene. Now they have no RB, the game is in Ames and they are facing what is probably a significantly better Iowa St team that always salivates at the chance at knocking them off. Iowa St has a QB in Austen Arnaud that is just as mobile, if not more mobile than that little fireplug kid that UNI trotted out there last week. I think Iowa St can beat them again.

3. @Michigan St -14 v Central Michigan: I like MSU this year because the losses they have from last year are easily replaceable. Both of the QBs they plan to play this year are better than Brian Hoyer was and anyone can run for 4 ypc, which is what Javon Ringer did last year. Defensively, they look really good. Central Michigan comes in off a terrible offensive performance against Arizona last week. I think the media and the pundits and overrating some of these MAC offenses this year, and I'll get more into that later on. Dan LeFevour is a favorite for sure. He's from Benet Academy, he's a fun guy to watch and all that. But Central is working on a 4 game losing streak going back to last year, and two of the losses were to EMU and Florida Atlantic in their bowl game last year. LeFevour has not looked good in any of them, and it culminated in a piss poor performance last week in the desert. 13 completions for 103 yards, nothing on the ground. Granted, that was a tough assignment, but they need some downfield plays to have a chance in this one. They were also very lucky that Arizona shot themselves in the foot offensively or they would have lost in a more ugly fashion. I don't see them doing much to MSU's defense, and I really don't see this one being much of a game. CMU will probably pick it up later in the season, but their lack of competitiveness against good BCS teams will continue.

4. @Indiana -1 1/2 v Western Michigan: Throughout the preseason, and certainly amid the Michigan/Dick Rod controversy, I heard different college football observers talking about the Michigan/ WMU game and what would happen if Michigan lost that one. I suppose it was reasonable to consider, since Michigan lost to Toledo last year, but it was more wishcasting than anything else. The wishcasting mostly centered on the assumption that WMU has a great offense. At times last year, they had a good one, but never a great one. They lost their WRs, and QB Hiller was coming off an injury in their bowl game. I was buying in to that noise, which is why I thought Michigan might struggle in the game, but in the back of my mind, I was remembering the debacle of WMU's bowl game in which they couldn't move the ball ON RICE"S DEFENSE. Then they came out and completely shit the bed against Michigan. It's true. This offense is not very good. Now they go to Bloomington to play IU, who admittedly struggled with Eastern Kentucky last week. However, their offense looked ok, piling up yards and uncovering some pretty good receivers. Defensively, against pedestrian outfits, they will be ok this year because they return everyone and have some capability of putting pressure on the QB. Western Michigan, based on their last 2 performances, has shown only an ability to make loud sucking sounds against a decent BCS team on the road. A lot of people are fading Indiana, and that won't be a bad idea later on, but they are significantly better than WMU. They are certainly the value side here at such a short number.

5. East Carolina +6 1/2 @ West Virginia: I can't resisit. There really isn't much line value in this game, since I'd generally like to catch more than a TD, but I can't see that WV will have much of an advantage in this game. Skip Holtz knows how to stop that offense. He did it last year when they had Pat White, and he's got just about everyone back. They have enough on offense to put some points up. I just don't see thisWV offense under Jarrett Brown being able to effectively move the ball on ECU, and I like their chances for the outright win over WV for the second year in a row.

6. North Carolina -4 @UCONN: Usually I would hesitate in this case because UCONN is a good home dog, but they are very sloppy on offense and UNC is very opportunistic. I also think that UCONN is very one dimensional on offense, and UNC is stout on their defensive line, so UCONN's wish to run effectively will probably not be granted. With the probable win in the turnover battle and with a clear advantage in talent, I think UNC covers the four. UCONN would have to be mistake free and I don't think they can do it.

7. Notre Dame -3 @Michigan: Yeah, Michigan looked good last week, but we can thank Western Michigan for that. Based only on that performance, there is no way in hell that they should be getting 3 in this one. Why?? Because a couple true freshman broke off nice looking plays against an overmatched opponent? They are facing a major upgrade in talent here on both sides of the ball. If I was taking Michigan, I'd probably want at least 10 to feel comfortable. Basically, if you like Michigan in this game, you are banking on people from Michigan making big plays. Undoubtedly, the playmakers on Michigan are the two true freshmen. So you will need these two kids to make plays all day, and at the same time hope your defense stops what appears to be an extremely good offense. It's true that Michigan is improved, but Notre Dame is even more improved than they are. I think ND takes this one rather easily.

8. @Southern Miss -14 v Central Florida: I hesitate on this one because CUSA has been one of my worst conferences, and I can remember takng it on the chin more than once when backing the Golden Eagles. However, I really can't see UCF hanging close in this one. So Miss is good offensively. QB Austin Davis was effective last year as a freshman(23/8 ratio) and they have a nice mix on offense, with his passing prowess and a good running game featuring Damion Fletcher. They also have DeAndre Brown, a top level WR, but I'm not sure if he'll be back because he's still recovering from a gruesome broken leg suffered in their bowl game last year. They return all 5 of their OL and are the logical pick to win their division in CUSA this year. On the flip side, UCF, which has been competent defensively in the past, in probably going to struggle. They lost everyone in the secondary, and have at least 4 true freshmen in their 2 deep back there. They remain pathetic on offense, as they proved yet again last week in their opener against Samford, in which they gained a grand total of 282 yards while squeaking out a 4 point win. So Miss should escort them to the woodshed for this one.

9. @Washington -20 1/2 v Idaho: I understand that Idaho went on the road and beat someone for the first team in about 75 years last week, but they are by no means any good. NMSU might be the worst team in D-1, so take that with a grain of salt. Washington lost a toughie to LSU last week. Have I mentioned that I hate Les Miles? What a lucky piece of crap that guy is. They got dominated by a team that was winless last year, but due to a couple lucky turnovers and some fortunate blown coverages, they ended up with the win. Washington legitimately beat up LSU, I don't think hey'll have trouble with Idaho. Generally, in a circumstance like this, Idaho would be a 30 point dog. Under 3 scores is definitely a bargain, and Sarkisian will probably be looking for a chance to gain some confidence for his team. Major blowout is likely here.

10. USC -6 1/2 @Ohio St: First of all, the fact that Ohio St struggled with Navy has nothing to do with my disdain for them this week. It's about the matchup, not what they did last week.Ohio St's only chance in this game is if Terrelle Pryor is indeed Superman himself. I don't care that USC has 10 new starters on defense, they're all better than OSU's offensive personnel, which other than Pryor isn't very good. They won't be able to run on USC, their receivers won't get open, they won't keep pressure out of the pocket. Name it, they won't accomplish it. USC is bringing in what is undoubtedly the best offensive line in the country to face a defense that is significantly less experienced and apparently significantly worse overall than they were last year. I don't give a shit that Matt Barkley is a freshman and might get nervous. When he sees his offensive line steamroll that defense as his recivers are streaking uncovered toward the endzone, his comfort level is going to improve. His 5 deep stable of Parade All-American running backs gashing 8 yards a pop probably won't hurt either. I don't care that Ohio St is looking for respect. I don't care about the stupid horseshoe. USC is going to come in there and hand them their heads. Plain and simple.

11. @UNLV +7 v Oregon St: Generally I like Oregon St, but they have struggled when going on the road early in the season. Defensively, Oregon St returns only 3 starters, and UNLV has some weapons on offense. QB Omar Clayton got hurt late last year, but ended up with an 18/4 ratio. Oregon St has to replace all 4 of their secondary guys, so I think he will have success. On defense, stopping Oregon St's run will be a concern, but they look to have some nice pieces on that side of the ball as well. Remember that UNLV knocked off Arizona St in week 2 last year in Tempe as a 20 point dog, so they have the confidence to pull off the outright win.

12. Tulsa -17 1/2 @New Mexico: Last year, New Mexico traveled to Tulsa and got destroyed 56-14, outgained in the process 606-314. That was under Rocky Long with familiar systems and veteran players. Now, the cupboard is bare, they have completely different schemes, including the Illinois style slow developing screen pass offense under new coach Mike Locksley. Week one at A&M was a disaster for New Mexico, as they gave up (again) 606 yards while mustering up only 230 themselves. Tulsa is probably just as good offensively and almost as good defensively as A&M is and will have a major advantage on the lines. Locksley is going to struggle for awhile out there until he can get the personnel to fit his system. New Mexico doesn't even have much of a home field to fall back on either. Blowout.

Others: Air Force is catching 3 1/2 at Minnesota, where the Goofers open up their new stadium. I'm actually looking forward to seeing it, as it's outdoors, on campus. Pretty cool. However, I can't see how Minny's defense is going to stop the AF rushing attack. Co-coordinators, etc. Also, the move to the more ball control offense will make things easier on AF, because stopping a good spread passing attack would have been a problem for them. Basically, I think coaching holds back Minnesota here.....La-La is at home getting 7 against K St. Looking at these two teams, La La could very easily win this one outright. KSU is 1-8 in their last 9 as road favorites........Texas should blow out Wyoming at Wyoming. For some reason that line has fallen from 34 to 31, where it actually might have some value.....I also have a hunch that Buffalo somehow continues their charmed existence and gives Wanny fits at home catching 10 1/2. All logic actually points to Pitt in this one, but I'll probably be going with my gut and fading Wanny for old time sake...I also like Auburn to put the wood to Miss St. They only have to cover 14, and Gus Malzahn's offense looked very good last week. The right scheme makes all the difference, and Miss St is going to struggle big time this year...That's it for now. Have a good one!!!!!